Found it somewhere else. What do you think?
Hey guys,
Earlier, I posted question as follows: What is the situation with 2011 match being more competitive than 2010 match, because apparently more DO enrollment will lead to them graduating in 2011, causing a reduction in IMG position.
Well, I did some research, and according this statement from AAMC, I have reached the following conclusion: 2011 MATCH WILL BE BIT TOUGHER THAN 2010 MATCH, BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUSLY COMPETITIVE, AS IT WILL BE AFTER 2015.
Source: http://www.aamc.org/workforce/enrollment/enrollmentreport.pdf
ON PAGE 9:
Between 2002 and 2007, the number of first year residents without prior GME
increased by 1,67210 compared to an expected increase in 1st year medical school
enrollment between 2002 and 2009 of 1,865. Based on these numbers alone, it
might appear that GME is keeping pace with increased medical school enrollment.
However, the financial challenges facing hospitals may lead to a slowing up in
growth in GME positions. Furthermore, since about half of the graduates of
osteopathic schools also enter ACGME residency programs and DO enrollment is
rising rapidly with an increase of 1,534 first year DO students between 2002 and
2009, GME growth is unlikely to be able to keep pace with the combined growth
of MDs and DO graduates; most likely leading to a reduction in IMGs entering
GME.
MY ANALYSIS: The numbers to focus on is this: 1,534 new DO enrollments between 2002 and 2009. And since only half of these DO students apply to the ACFME residency programs, and the fact that the above number includes enrollment increase in 2008 and 2009, and we must discount the increase before 2007, since were only concerned with 2007 increase (being that 2007 students will graduate in 2011). I would say that the actual number of additional DO students applying for 2011 match is closer to a third of 1,534, or probably around 500. All this being said, it is also likely that congress may approve additional residency spots between now and 2011.
All this being said, here is my conclusion: 2011 will be bit tougher than 2010 match, but not outrageously competitive, as it will be after 2015.
I appreciate your comments and any analysis; I have posted the link to the article above. The paragraph I have posted is on page 9.
One more thing guys:
I want to paste this paragraph as well:
The goal of the 2006 position statement was to increase the supply of physicians
to help assure future access to needed medical services. Therefore, the position
statement also called for an increase in graduate medical education (GME)
positions to accommodate the recommended increase in MD enrollment. A 30%
increase in 1st year medical school enrollment above the 2002 level would lead to
an increase of nearly 5,000 MD graduates, all of whom would need to enter GME
before becoming licensed to practice. Currently, more than 7,000 international
medical school graduates (IMGs) enter GME each year. If GME positions are not
increased, it is likely that the expansion of MD graduates would lead to a parallel
reduction in IMGs without an increase in physician supply to serve the nation.
MY ANALYSIS: The goal of the increase in medical school enrollment is to increase the number of physicians, so if congress does not approve more residency spots, understandably due to economy and the war, the end result of increasing more physicians in the US will not be achieved. So, in my opinion, though IMGs may be hurt in the short run, in the long run, it is more likely than not that congress will approve more residency spots, to reach that ultimate goal of reaching higher number of physicians in the US.
Hey guys,
Earlier, I posted question as follows: What is the situation with 2011 match being more competitive than 2010 match, because apparently more DO enrollment will lead to them graduating in 2011, causing a reduction in IMG position.
Well, I did some research, and according this statement from AAMC, I have reached the following conclusion: 2011 MATCH WILL BE BIT TOUGHER THAN 2010 MATCH, BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUSLY COMPETITIVE, AS IT WILL BE AFTER 2015.
Source: http://www.aamc.org/workforce/enrollment/enrollmentreport.pdf
ON PAGE 9:
Between 2002 and 2007, the number of first year residents without prior GME
increased by 1,67210 compared to an expected increase in 1st year medical school
enrollment between 2002 and 2009 of 1,865. Based on these numbers alone, it
might appear that GME is keeping pace with increased medical school enrollment.
However, the financial challenges facing hospitals may lead to a slowing up in
growth in GME positions. Furthermore, since about half of the graduates of
osteopathic schools also enter ACGME residency programs and DO enrollment is
rising rapidly with an increase of 1,534 first year DO students between 2002 and
2009, GME growth is unlikely to be able to keep pace with the combined growth
of MDs and DO graduates; most likely leading to a reduction in IMGs entering
GME.
MY ANALYSIS: The numbers to focus on is this: 1,534 new DO enrollments between 2002 and 2009. And since only half of these DO students apply to the ACFME residency programs, and the fact that the above number includes enrollment increase in 2008 and 2009, and we must discount the increase before 2007, since were only concerned with 2007 increase (being that 2007 students will graduate in 2011). I would say that the actual number of additional DO students applying for 2011 match is closer to a third of 1,534, or probably around 500. All this being said, it is also likely that congress may approve additional residency spots between now and 2011.
All this being said, here is my conclusion: 2011 will be bit tougher than 2010 match, but not outrageously competitive, as it will be after 2015.
I appreciate your comments and any analysis; I have posted the link to the article above. The paragraph I have posted is on page 9.
One more thing guys:
I want to paste this paragraph as well:
The goal of the 2006 position statement was to increase the supply of physicians
to help assure future access to needed medical services. Therefore, the position
statement also called for an increase in graduate medical education (GME)
positions to accommodate the recommended increase in MD enrollment. A 30%
increase in 1st year medical school enrollment above the 2002 level would lead to
an increase of nearly 5,000 MD graduates, all of whom would need to enter GME
before becoming licensed to practice. Currently, more than 7,000 international
medical school graduates (IMGs) enter GME each year. If GME positions are not
increased, it is likely that the expansion of MD graduates would lead to a parallel
reduction in IMGs without an increase in physician supply to serve the nation.
MY ANALYSIS: The goal of the increase in medical school enrollment is to increase the number of physicians, so if congress does not approve more residency spots, understandably due to economy and the war, the end result of increasing more physicians in the US will not be achieved. So, in my opinion, though IMGs may be hurt in the short run, in the long run, it is more likely than not that congress will approve more residency spots, to reach that ultimate goal of reaching higher number of physicians in the US.
