I don't have a problem with the changes. Just the lack of an articulated plan.
Oh, there's a plan, it's just we haven't been informed fully of what it is. I believe the specialty leaders are well aware of what the plan is and have been involved for quite a while on this.
The numbers quoted above are similar to what I have heard from those in a place to know. I have also been told that nobody is going to be released from service prior to them wanting to leave, but instead these goals will be met through attrition. My reading of the tea leaves(and I have no direct insight here) is:
The Services (Army, Navy, Air Force) have been tasked with the operational mission. The DHA has been tasked with "everybody else." This is causing the Services to say, "well...then we don't need all these doctors in the (Insert Service Here), because we only need to take care of the operational forces." The DHA is getting left holding the bag with a mandate, but no doctors to fulfill that mandate. My guess is the Services will hemorrhage doctors in the "non-critical" areas and the DHA will be picking up those jobs through civilian conversions. Where I see the issue is in the coming years where the Services are downsizing, but the money isn't there to hire the civilians. We could be really lean for a few years in some specialties.
In regards to GME, I think you will see the Services remain in GME; however, at a likely reduced level. If you only need 61 pediatricians then you aren't going to train as many as you are now. That means consolidation of programs. You probably don't need 3 programs if you only need a smaller number of trainees. You will then see a consolidation of the active duty specialists at the GME locations with civilianized cadre at the other centers that still need to maintain subspecialized care, such as NICU, etc. This isn't necessarily a bad thing for the patients. They may see an increase in the continuity of their care. A significant issue though will be, as noted above, hiring the civilian specialists. Some of these bases aren't in the most desirable locations, and even in those that are you can't necessarily pay them what would bring in top notch doctors. This may be offset some by active duty retirements deciding to stay on as civilians.
One way they will continue to attract students is by guaranteeing future GME training. There are currently less spots in GME nationwide than there are American graduates. This is only going to get worse in the next 5-10 years with the continued expansion of medical schools, especially the for-profit sector. The military will be able to come in and say, "look, here, take this scholarship and we will guarantee you some form of GME training." That will be a big draw for some, unfortunately it will be a draw to the lower tier student.
Okay, this turned into longer than I meant it to already...but if you aren't aware of what the "plan" is then I recommend you reach out to your specialty leader (I recommend waiting a week or so as the GMESB is this week and they may be a bit busy).