The ultimate COVID thread

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The companies have to pay it back. Plus they are getting 1500 per person so yes they are getting help.

Stopping payments is helping. They've already suspended interest.

Also Blade, you can say the same for McConnell. He's doing the same thing. Don't try to act like this is unique to Pelosi.

“In a key concession to the administration, Democrats have agreed to $25 billion in grants to U.S. airlines and $4 billion for cargo air carriers, according to text excerpt of the emerging deal”


A grant is not a loan, boss

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Senator minority leader actually said that they had bipartisan support for the bill over the weekend and that's why it went to a vote. unfortunately, Pelosi came in a squashed it completely.

This is why we need term limits, too much ****ing around and pushing agendas. Just get **** done that helps both people and businesses for a short time. We we don't need long term government programs or unnecessary pork in bills.

As Emanuel once said, never let a good crisis go to waste.
 
looks like recession is over. its defintiely starting to look ilke that V shape curve many of us were expecting

A bounce in the stock market fueled by a bunch of printed money doesn't mean much unless you are a trader or hit a rebalancing threshold.

When Hospitals start dismantling recently added ICU capacity and Governors start relaxing restrictions is when economic optimism is justified.
 
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A bounce in the stock market fueled by a bunch of printed money doesn't mean much unless you are a trader or hit a rebalancing threshold.

When Hospitals start dismantling recently added ICU capacity and Governors start relaxing restrictions is when economic optimism is justified.

the rest of the economy will go on as before, leaving hospitals in hard hit areas to die. no one will even notice a pandemic is happening except for healthcare workers and people with deaths in family. that seems to be the direction we are giong

italy has been downtrending for past few days

honestly it almost felt like it was over on teh way to work today. for some reason way more cars on the road, way more people on subway than last few days
 
These pork filled bills are all about not letting a crisis go to waste. I support giving money to those that need help. Those unemployed or earning less than 60,000. Im not sure why a couple earning $149,000 needs a govt hand out.

Why does Covid 19 mean the airlines must change its business model in terms of energy? That has nothing to do with this outbreak.

Pelosi is using the crisis to move her leftward agenda into law. That’s not the point of a stimulus bill.

The left never lets a crisis go to waste.

Dude WTF? Blaming the "left" when the "right" is just as bad! Everyone wants their pork!

$60,000 and $149,000 seem like very arbitrary numbers anyway.
 
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the rest of the economy will go on as before, leaving hospitals in hard hit areas to die. no one will even notice a pandemic is happening except for healthcare workers and people with deaths in family. that seems to be the direction we are giong

italy has been downtrending for past few days

honestly it almost felt like it was over on teh way to work today. for some reason way more cars on the road, way more people on subway than last few days

It's still going to get worse before it gets better....a lot worse IMHO.

As a side note, anyone who was holding long positions or options overnight made a killing today

The short positions are looking really tasty right now, going to buy in and make another killing as the markets crumble later in the week
 
looks like recession is over. its defintiely starting to look ilke that V shape curve many of us were expecting

recession is a measure of GDP, not S&P 500. We haven't even started to drop our GDP because it is measured retrospectively, but it's definitely taking a massive hit. I mean companies revenues in March and April are going to take a massive hit and it's basically a sure thing we hit technical definitions of a recession.

The thing with the stock market, though, is that all of that is already known and why we dropped so far so fast. It's quite possible that we have already seen the bottom of the market drop before we even started the recession, although I try to never make short term market predictions.
 
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I feel the White House inner circle used "the good of the many outweighs the good of the few" logic.

Which is the lesser of two evils (or, which provides the most benefit for the many at the expense of the unfortunate few)?

A) Shutting down the economy for ## time period (potentially causing grievous long-lasting financial harm, widespread unemployment, etc) to flatten the curve, for the expressed purpose of saving ## lives by not overwhelming our hospitals?

- OR -

B) While acknowledging the human toll, coming to the conclusion that the financial/economic stability of the country is more important thus it's back to business as usual, while at the same time acknowledging a few extra million citizens might perish in the near future as our hospitals are overwhelmed in the short term?

Added to the calculus is how the White House viewed their options through the lens of upcoming election season. I feel the current administration's inner circle felt they have a greater chance at reelection by going with option B, while again not downplaying the human toll it exacts.
 
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Sold about half of my bond position on the dead cat bounce of the day. Would agree this is going to get worse before it gets better.

Market currently in free fall again.. we’ll see where it is at the end of the week.
 
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A) Shutting down the economy for ## time period (potentially causing grievous long-lasting financial harm, widespread unemployment, etc) to flatten the curve, for the expressed purpose of saving ## lives by not overwhelming our hospitals?

If you provide emergency financial assistance almost across the board to everybody, what "grievous long-lasting financial harm" would be done to the system? It's by definition temporary in nature and unlikely to have any long lasting impact.

This is not a normal financial crisis compared to something like 2008 where we had fundamental problems in the financial sector that threatened to basically put almost every bank in the country out of business. This is a everything is literally unchanged in the economy except we are emergently locking people in their house for a little bit to let a viral infection clear out and then you can go back to your exact same job scenario. The thing is you just need to support people through the temporary disruption.
 
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Can’t believe what’s coming out of Trumps mouth now. Sounds he**bent on opening up the country. This is going to be a catastrophe On a scale approaching the unthinkable.
 
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I feel the White House inner circle used "the good of the many outweighs the good of the few" logic.

Which is the lesser of two evils (or, which provides the most benefit for the many at the expense of the unfortunate few)?

A) Shutting down the economy for ## time period (potentially causing grievous long-lasting financial harm, widespread unemployment, etc) to flatten the curve, for the expressed purpose of saving ## lives by not overwhelming our hospitals?

- OR -

B) While acknowledging the human toll, coming to the conclusion that the financial/economic stability of the country is more important thus it's back to business as usual, while at the same time acknowledging a few extra million citizens might perish in the near future as our hospitals are overwhelmed in the short term?

Added to the calculus is how the White House viewed their options through the lens of upcoming election season. I feel the current administration's inner circle felt they have a greater chance at reelection by going with option B, while again not downplaying the human toll it exacts.
Reminds me of this...
A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one
 
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Reminds me of this...

A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one

Isn’t that exactly what Toyota did when their cars were accelerating people to their deaths about 10 years ago?
 
Dude WTF? Blaming the "left" when the "right" is just as bad! Everyone wants their pork!

$60,000 and $149,000 seem like very arbitrary numbers anyway.

I want them all to just pass what is needed. No more. I hate all these PORK bills but I guess we need one. Leave out the agendas and pass the bill.
 
These pork filled bills are all about not letting a crisis go to waste. I support giving money to those that need help. Those unemployed or earning less than 60,000. Im not sure why a couple earning $149,000 needs a govt hand out.

Why does Covid 19 mean the airlines must change its business model in terms of energy? That has nothing to do with this outbreak.

Pelosi is using the crisis to move her leftward agenda into law. That’s not the point of a stimulus bill.

The left never lets a crisis go to waste.
Lots of nonsense. Now is not the time for carbon footprints or pet projects. If you want funding for other things, put the funding in other bills.
 
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Let’s say you were about to loan someone a huge sum of money because they were in dire circumstances. Wouldn’t you want to have a say in how that money is spent? Would you be happy if you saw that the money you loaned was being spent on booze and hookers? Like it or not, but the government now owns the airline industry. They can tell them how to run their business. If the airline industry didn’t want government directives then maybe they should have set aside a 6 month emergency fund...just like individuals. The other option is to just let the airlines fail...because that’s capitalism.

Forcing companies to become "woke" has nothing to do with Capitalism or Covid 19. Have you read the bill? The "woke" agenda is part of it forcing companies to hire board members based on the color of their skin or sexual orientation. Also, the "Green new Deal" has no place in a Covid 19 bailout bill.
 
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Who was it again that came up with a $500b slush fund, run by Mnuchin, “overseen” by trump, and with zero accountability to anyone else?

I have no issues with the left calling them out on this fact. That's why we have political parties- checks and balances.
 
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Forcing companies to become "woke" has nothing to do with Capitalism or Covid 19. Have you read the bill? The "woke" agenda is part of it forcing companies to hire board members based on the color of their skin or sexual orientation. Also, the "Green new Deal" has no place in a Covid 19 bailout bill.
Good thing I identify as a minority (type as of yet undecided) woman who just so happens to be a lesbian.
I only look like a white male married to a woman.
Who are you to judge me and tell me that I am not? In fact, I am offended that you are even questioning me, and if this continues, I will sue you for discrimination.
 
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the rest of the economy will go on as before, leaving hospitals in hard hit areas to die. no one will even notice a pandemic is happening except for healthcare workers and people with deaths in family. that seems to be the direction we are
Our economy won’t be opening anytime soon. Complete ban on elective surgeries by the governor (enforced by the power of the medical licensing board ). I think it will take at least 2 months and likely more before we are seeing cases again.....
 



Governor Cuomo gives much better daily updates than anything coming out of the federal government at this point. The situation in New York is dire, but the rest of the country may not be far behind. He gives concrete numbers and lays out a plan not only for combating the pandemic nationwide, but for restarting the economy. It’s worth a watch.
 
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Can’t believe what’s coming out of Trumps mouth now. Sounds he**bent on opening up the country. This is going to be a catastrophe On a scale approaching the unthinkable.

Trump: I could 'shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters'.
 
This is an admission that the experiments are not working:
The experiments are working to some degree but this would be akin to using IVIG for a patient when steroids and all other methods fail. The current treatments seem to provide some benefit but are not a cure.
 
So help me understand. Why aren't governments fully treating the covid 19 pandemic as a wartime situation and dramatically increase the manufacturing of vents, PPEs and other essential supplies? That should improve the morale and reduce the panic over the disease.
 
“I’d love to have it open by Easter,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall on Tuesday. "It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’ll make it an important day for this too."
"We lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu," Trump said. "We don’t turn the country off.
“We lose much more than that to automobile accidents. We didn’t call up the automobile companies and say, ‘Stop making cars, we don’t want any cars anymore.’ We have to get back to work."
He continued: "Our people are full of vim and vigour and energy.

"They don’t want to be locked in a house or an apartment or some space."


Looks like Trump plans on just letting the virus run it's course and getting the USA back to work.
He's correct that the economic fallout of a prolonged shutdown will be immense, but the human cost of not shutting down is going to be terrible.

what a disaster.
 
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FFP is correct that a sustainable market bottom won't be reached until the Covid 19 caseload peaks and the curve of infections flattens. So, I still think an S and P 500 of 2100-2150 will be the bottom. This market rally may be met with some selling.


  • The market has received help from monetary policy and looks on its way to aid from the fiscal side.
  • However, market experts see no clear path forward without signs the coronavirus is passing.
  • “We’re going to need to have to see the infections pass an inflection point,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Asset Management.
  • Markets rallied sharply Tuesday on hopes that Congress is close to passing stimulus.
 
“I’d love to have it open by Easter,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall on Tuesday. "It’s such an important day for other reasons, but I’ll make it an important day for this too."
"We lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu," Trump said. "We don’t turn the country off.
“We lose much more than that to automobile accidents. We didn’t call up the automobile companies and say, ‘Stop making cars, we don’t want any cars anymore.’ We have to get back to work."
He continued: "Our people are full of vim and vigour and energy.

"They don’t want to be locked in a house or an apartment or some space."


Looks like Trump plans on just letting the virus run it's course and getting the USA back to work.
He's correct that the economic fallout of a prolonged shutdown will be immense, but the human cost of not shutting down is going to be terrible.

what a disaster.

Many experts agree with you and are advocating for a total shut-down now:

  • Doctors warned that U.S. coronavirus deaths could dramatically increase if the Trump administration relaxes guidelines designed to limit the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • “If you don’t keep the restrictions or make them stricter, you’re going to have more people infected, hospitalized, and dying from the disease,” said Dr. Tina Tan of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
  • President Donald Trump said: “I would love to have the country opened up, and just raring to go, by Easter.”
 
FFP is correct that a sustainable market bottom won't be reached until the Covid 19 caseload peaks and the curve of infections flattens. So, I still think an S and P 500 of 2100-2150 will be the bottom. This market rally may be met with some selling.


  • The market has received help from monetary policy and looks on its way to aid from the fiscal side.
  • However, market experts see no clear path forward without signs the coronavirus is passing.
  • “We’re going to need to have to see the infections pass an inflection point,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Asset Management.
  • Markets rallied sharply Tuesday on hopes that Congress is close to passing stimulus.

supposedly there is a prediction of a large inflow of cash to equities as the end of the quarter approaches and lots of rebalancing is set to automatically occur
 
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I was in fellowship last year. Didn't make that much.
Joke's still on you, not everybody has filed 2019 taxes and the IRS has extended the deadline by 3 months.

Eligibility for the sweet, sweet government cheese will be based on 2018 AGI. No soup for you!
 
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Joke's still on you, not everybody has filed 2019 taxes and the IRS has extended the deadline by 3 months.

Eligibility for the sweet, sweet government cheese will be based on 2018 AGI. No soup for you!
It was even worse in 2018. Send that sweet sweet gubment cheese my way!
You do know Residency and Felloswhip starts in July right?
Honestly I may not even qualify.
 
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Pelosi counter bill

  • Increases the amount of money being offered to individuals to $1,500, and up to $7,500 for a family of five. The same GOP income thresholds in the GOP bill would apply — $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples, but the benefit would be available to anyone with an individual taxpayer identification number, retirees and unemployed individuals.
  • Waives $10,000 in federal student loan payments.
  • Dedicate $4 billion in grant funding to help states with upcoming elections and nationally mandates 15 days of early voting and no-excuse absentee vote-by-mail, including mailing a ballot to all registered voters in an emergency.
  • Includes a section that would cancel several executive orders and presidential memorandums that Democrats argue have weakened public sector unions' ability to engage in collective bargaining.
  • Creates new carbon offset guidelines for airlines, with a long-term goal of reducing jet fuel emissions by 50% by 2050.
  • Allocates $150 billion to support hospitals, local health centers and government-funded medical programs, with an additional $80 billion in low-interest loans to hospitals.
  • Eliminates cost-sharing for coronavirus treatments and vaccines for all patients, including the uninsured.
  • Addresses broader health care concerns that Democrats have pushed for months, including increasing subsidies on the individual market and creating new incentives for states to expand Medicaid.
  • Provides child care assistance to health care workers and emergency personnel.
  • Would temporarily provide $600 per week to unemployed workers affected by the coronavirus. Self-employed workers, Americans whose contracts were canceled, and new entrants to the job market would also be eligible.
  • Expands paid sick leave and family medical leave, as well as gives more money to food-safety benefits.
  • Provides $500 billion in grants and interest-free loans to small businesses.
  • Creates a $200 billion stabilization fund for states and $15 billion for local governments through the Community Development Block Grant program. The legislation also authorizes the Federal Reserve to purchase state and local government bonds.
  • Pumps nearly $60 billion into schools and universities, with $50 billion directly provided to states for school funding and nearly $10 billion to higher education institutions.
  • Dedicates $20 billion to reimbursing the U.S. Postal Service for lost revenue, and forgives USPS debt.
  • Requires companies receiving federal assistance during coronavirus to institute a $15 minimum wage.
Windmills, Emissions, and Cultural Diversity.... What an f-ing idiot. And these are the people that make fun of the stable genius.
 
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I feel the White House inner circle used "the good of the many outweighs the good of the few" logic.

Which is the lesser of two evils (or, which provides the most benefit for the many at the expense of the unfortunate few)?

A) Shutting down the economy for ## time period (potentially causing grievous long-lasting financial harm, widespread unemployment, etc) to flatten the curve, for the expressed purpose of saving ## lives by not overwhelming our hospitals?

- OR -

B) While acknowledging the human toll, coming to the conclusion that the financial/economic stability of the country is more important thus it's back to business as usual, while at the same time acknowledging a few extra million citizens might perish in the near future as our hospitals are overwhelmed in the short term?

Added to the calculus is how the White House viewed their options through the lens of upcoming election season. I feel the current administration's inner circle felt they have a greater chance at reelection by going with option B, while again not downplaying the human toll it exacts.
I've always felt it has to eventually swing towards Option B unless you are an anarchist, but it won't be business as usual. We are in the infancy of this, tens of thousands. Let's talk when it's many millions, hospitals are overflowing, and granmas are dying on cots in convention centers. There will be a functioning economy but certainly no large group gatherings; sports leagues, concerts, cruise ships, conventions, etc. Travel would remain down to a fraction. It will still be a huge economic hit in numerous ways.

Let's hope for a Plaquenil type miracle and all of this speculation is of no relevance.
 
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If the market re-tests the lows 2150 will hold. I think the bottom is in people but we will re-test again (maybe 2 more times). I'll be using a lot of my remaining powder at 2150. For those that buy equities near the low on the next re-test there will be huge gains over 12 months.
 
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JobsFan/FFP are correct in that the stock market hasn't reached a true bottom. 2150 is still likely to be tested. That is your opportunity.

POINTS
  • Stocks are showing some signs of finding a bottom and markets are looking better with some improvements in credit and buying interest in stocks.
  • The market has been lifted by the promise of a big stimulus program from Washington and a huge blast of monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve.
  • Strategists warn it could be a temporary bottom, and there will be no real bottom until it is clear new coronavirus cases in the U.S. have peaked.
 
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We got an email from one of our group members that the bill contains Surprise Billing Regulation in it with insurance companies having sole deciding power over reimbursements without any sort of independent regulation. Anybody else hearing this?

Unfortunately we just had a similar bill pass here in Indiana
 
We got an email from one of our group members that the bill contains Surprise Billing Regulation in it with insurance companies having sole deciding power over reimbursements without any sort of independent regulation. Anybody else hearing this?

Unfortunately we just had a similar bill pass here in Indiana

Where?
 
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