The ultimate COVID thread

[NicMouse64]

The problem is, up to 25 million people could permanently lose their jobs even with this paltry stimulus due to their jobs going under. Companies can't make money without consumers, and it is kind of a feed forward mechanism- less people have money to spend because people lose jobs so more people lose jobs until the system stabilizes. The market was already highly overvalued and I think the stability point is much lower than anything we have seen in over a decade

Yeah. You can only prop up the stock market to these levels with factors of debt propping up prices of various goods. Can the average joe really pay off 350k house if they don't have a stable 50k per year income? What happens when they were paying a 2-3k/month mortgage and they now don't have a job? That house goes under, they move out without paying off the debt, the house can't be bought by other people because....no jobs, and we have a repeat of the issues in 2008. This time it will have less to do with overzealous speculation but more to do with the fact that debt buying only can last as long as the economy is doing well.

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[Mman]

The problem is, up to 25 million people could permanently lose their jobs even with this paltry stimulus due to their jobs going under. Companies can't make money without consumers, and it is kind of a feed forward mechanism- less people have money to spend because people lose jobs so more people lose jobs until the system stabilizes. The market was already highly overvalued and I think the stability point is much lower than anything we have seen in over a decade

I see almost nothing about this that will lead to long term job loss. The consumers, workers, and businesses are literally being forced against their collective will from conducting business.

 

[Mikkel]

Yes, it will be due to Cuomo, not because it's a densely populated international city

When did the good governor decide to shut down the subways?

WAY TOO LATE.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I can predict with 90% ++ probability that even if you buy TODAY that investment will be up in 12 months by a lot. This is MASSIVE liquidity with ZERO interest rates combined with a stimulus bill of multiple trillions. Holy Cow Batman this is going to light up the stock market by the summer. Pull-backs will now be bought rather than sold. Let's hope we get back to 2350 or even 2200 because I have a boatload of relatively worthless U.S. currency to buy long term equities.

Sad but very possibly true. The most propped up overhyped economy and market in the history of the earth. I'm literally astounded how many intelligent people, not just here, think money printing and ungodly levels of government borrow and spending is some kind of cure all.

 

[leaverus]

I see almost nothing about this that will lead to long term job loss. The consumers, workers, and businesses are literally being forced against their collective will from conducting business.

How long can those businesses stay shuttered up (forced or not) without revenue before they're forced to close up shop permanently?

 

[Ezekiel2517]

When did the good governor decide to shut down the subways?

WAY TOO LATE.

I lived in NYC for a couple years. Many ppl don't have cars. Most don't need one bc of how great the subway system is. They still need ppl - healthcare workers, essential businesses and service ppl - to work, They need subway to get there.

 

[Mad Jack]

I see almost nothing about this that will lead to long term job loss. The consumers, workers, and businesses are literally being forced against their collective will from conducting business.

This is going to go on for months. So like, regardless of what people or businesses want, it's going to be incredibly disruptive likely for 18 months or so. That's going to put a lot of people out of business entirely and send the national debt through the stratosphere

 

[Mikkel]

I lived in NYC for a couple years. Many ppl don't have cars. Most don't need one bc of how great the subway system is. They still need ppl - healthcare workers, essential businesses and service ppl - to work, They need subway to get there.

Cuomo and Deblazio were supposedly in charge, and they had to make the tough calls, they needed to shut down the subways immediately. They completely utterly FAILED the people of New York by keeping them open far too late.

Because of their mismanagement and poor leadership, the people of New York are suffering. They are now the EPICENTER thanks to Cuomo.

 

[Mman]

This is going to go on for months. So like, regardless of what people or businesses want, it's going to be incredibly disruptive likely for 18 months or so. That's going to put a lot of people out of business entirely and send the national debt through the stratosphere

see temporary disruption is by definition temporary. It doesn't matter if it is a week or a year. That's not to say it doesn't matter to those individual people, but the fundamentals of how the economy works won't change.

 

[Mman]

How long can those businesses stay shuttered up (forced or not) without revenue before they're forced to close up shop permanently?

which ones?

Pretty sure McDonald's will be selling burgers again. I assume your neighborhood Jiffy Lube will still be changing oil. It is temporary.

 

[needledox]

Sad but very possibly true. The most propped up overhyped economy and market in the history of the earth. I'm literally astounded how many intelligent people, not just here, think money printing and ungodly levels of government borrow and spending is some kind of cure all.

we know what’s going on, but why sit out and not reap the benefits? When it’s all over and we enter into the worst depression we’ve ever known, money won’t matter anymore

 

[Ezekiel2517]

Cuomo and Deblazio were supposedly in charge, and they had to make the tough calls, they needed to shut down the subways immediately. They completely utterly FAILED the people of New York by keeping them open far too late.

Because of their mismanagement and poor leadership, the people of New York are suffering. They are now the EPICENTER thanks to Cuomo.

So, how are doctors, nurses, pharmacists, COVID lab workers, police officers, firefighters, state/county/city govt workers, grocery store/restaurant workers, public health+social workers, plumbers, electricians, on and on and on ... supposed to get to work? Think about the thousands of people it takes just to keep a single hospital running. And NYC isn't exactly your typical city.

 

[Mman]

we know what’s going on, but why sit out and not reap the benefits? When it’s all over and we enter into the worst depression we’ve ever known, money won’t matter anymore

so you are a guns and ammo kinda guy I assume?

 

[Mikkel]

So, how are doctors, nurses, pharmacists, COVID lab workers, police officers, firefighters, state/county/city govt workers, grocery store/restaurant workers, public health+social workers, plumbers, electricians, on and on and on ... supposed to get to work? Think about the thousands of people it takes just to keep a single hospital running. And NYC isn't exactly your typical city.

What kind of logic is that?

Infect millions of people so a few nurses and techs can get to the hospital to treat the millions they got sick by keeping the subway open?

Or maybe they could have taken taxis and ubers?


Also, do you honestly think plumbers and electricians get to work hauling their hundreds of pounds of equipment through the subway?


The fact of the matter is that Cuomo messed up big time, and millions of New Yorkers are suffering because of his terrible leadership.

 

[needledox]

so you are a guns and ammo kinda guy I assume?

not really

 

[Mman]

not really

so you think without guns and ammo you are going to somehow profit off the worst depression we've ever seen (according to you personal prognostication)?

 

[d9sccr]

What kind of logic is that?

Infect millions of people so a few nurses and techs can get to the hospital to treat the millions they got sick by keeping the subway open?

Or maybe they could have taken taxis and ubers?


Also, do you honestly think plumbers and electricians get to work hauling their hundreds of pounds of equipment through the subway?


The fact of the matter is that Cuomo messed up big time, and millions of New Yorkers are suffering because of his terrible leadership.

Yes, but this runs counter narrative to the new source of 50% of the country. Don’t forget the Chinese New Year celebration that wasn’t canceled to prove there is no xenophobia or just life as usually in nyc.

Cuomo is much more polished in front of a camera, but is saying many of the same things Trump says. His delivery is better so the suggestion that people need to get back to work comes off better than Trump’s rambling about opening up on Easter

 

[Ezekiel2517]

What kind of logic is that?

Infect millions of people so a few nurses and techs can get to the hospital to treat the millions they got sick by keeping the subway open?

Or maybe they could have taken taxis and ubers?


Also, do you honestly think plumbers and electricians get to work hauling their hundreds of pounds of equipment through the subway?


The fact of the matter is that Cuomo messed up big time, and millions of New Yorkers are suffering because of his terrible leadership.

You're absolutely clueless. A huge portion of the ppl working in NYC don't live in the city. And the fact that u think you can run dozens of huge medical centers serving millions of ppl with a few nurses shows how clueless you are. Even Trump has enough common sense to know you couldn't completely shut down the entire subway system lol. NYC is completely overwhelmed right now and they still aren't even entertaining thoughts of shutting down the all the subways. They're not stupid, they just know it's impossible.

 

[BLADEMDA]

The stock market is getting ahead of itself. I am looking to sell on any additional rallies. FFP/JobsFAn and others have correctly pointed out we have 3-4 more weeks of severe Viral induced PAIN ahead. Deaths are going to mount. ICUs are full in NYC. The economy is going to tank. The market SHOULD re-test 2400 if not lower like 2250. Nothing goes straight up. Again, I am going to sell into the strength assuming we get any additional upticks then buy back at 2400 or 2350.

Yes, I am convinced that over the next 4-6 months the markets will rebound nicely even hitting 2800. But, this takes time and traders will lock in some profits along the way. That is your chance to buy equities.

 

[nimbus]

which ones?

Pretty sure McDonald's will be selling burgers again. I assume your neighborhood Jiffy Lube will still be changing oil. It is temporary.

McDonald’s and jiffy lube are essential services just like the hospital. They are open in California.

 

[BLADEMDA]

The problem is, up to 25 million people could permanently lose their jobs even with this paltry stimulus due to their jobs going under. Companies can't make money without consumers, and it is kind of a feed forward mechanism- less people have money to spend because people lose jobs so more people lose jobs until the system stabilizes. The market was already highly overvalued and I think the stability point is much lower than anything we have seen in over a decade

We agree that the market is way over-hyped. But, it is the ONLY Game in town and if you use U.S. currency it is still the best game as well. These interventions are very unhealthy over the long term. In the short term they JUICE the market- think high dose steroids.

 

[sevoflurane]

I think there is a real chance of the market falling further once this honeymoon ends and the pandemic spreads.
Yet I am still buying at relatively cheap levels.

 

[Mikkel]

You're absolutely clueless. A huge portion of the ppl working in NYC don't live in the city. And the fact that u think you can run dozens of huge medical centers serving millions of ppl with a few nurses shows how clueless you are. Even Trump has enough common sense to know you couldn't completely shut down the entire subway system lol. NYC is completely overwhelmed right now and they still aren't even entertaining thoughts of shutting down the all the subways. They're not stupid, they just know it's impossible.

Drastic times, drastic measures.

Home quarantine for the city, only allow essential people to go to work.

Go to work via Uber and Taxi. Not much traffic when only 10% of cars on the road. The city could reimburse everyone for the additional expense, and still spend less money than keeping the subways open and infect millions more people.

It's not a hard decision. Cuomo FAILED to make this simple decision.

Remember how these other so called "leaders" called Trump "racist" for shutting down travel from China?

Somehow the rest of America has figured out how to do the whole quarantine thing well, except for the brainiacs in New York.

No wonder NYC is such a crapshow right now with a bunch of meatheads running it.

 

[Mman]

McDonald’s and jiffy lube are essential services just like the hospital. They are open in California.

I can't think of any job losses that are NOT temporary.

 

[BLADEMDA]

I'm still sticking to my bear guns. I think these gains are temporary and will evaporate when things end up remaining closed, cases continue to spread, bodies mount, and the stimulus proves to be the fiscal equivalent of trying to subdue a bear with a pool noodle. These gains are based on hope that is going to die come Easter.

I almost agree with you. The bottom of the market is in 2200/2150. Now, traders and investors will all use that level of support to buy equities. I know that I will. Anything close to 2200 and the buying will be frantic. I am not sure even if there are 25,000 deaths in NYC alone if the market re-tests 2200.

I do think that nothing goes straight up and we haven't seen the worst of Covid 19. The "all clear" won't occur until the deaths start to level off and the infection rate itself peaks then tapers.

 

[Arch Guillotti]

I can't think of any job losses that are NOT temporary.

Small businesses go under and can't recover.

 

[needledox]

I almost agree with you. The bottom of the market is in 2200/2150. Now, traders and investors will all use that level of support to buy equities. I know that I will. Anything close to 2200 and the buying will be frantic. I am not sure even if there are 25,000 deaths in NYC alone if the market re-tests 2200.

I do think that nothing goes straight up and we haven't seen the worst of Covid 19. The "all clear" won't occur until the deaths start to level off and the infection rate itself peaks then tapers.

what’s your best guess when we will start trending down again?

futures are up again for tomorrow which is surprising to me

 

[narcotics999]

I think there is a real chance of the market falling further once this honeymoon ends and the pandemic spreads.
Yet I am still buying at relatively cheap levels.

Los Angeles is blowing up now.

Japan is blowing up after the olympics is delayed.

Turkey is blowing up too.

Things are long long away from getting controlled.

 

[leaverus]

I can't think of any job losses that are NOT temporary.

Maybe you should try eating elsewhere than McD's and get your oil changed elsewhere than JiffyLube...

 

[BLADEMDA]

what’s your best guess when we will start trending down again?

futures are up again for tomorrow which is surprising to me

Professional investors have BILLIONS to invest by the end of this month. If we don't get a down-turn this week then next week we should see a big sell-off once this 160 billion has been invested in equities.

Be patient. This market is over-valued above 2600. It takes time to recover. Pick your stocks or ETFs so when we sell off again (which we will) you can buy in.

 

[GravelRider]

The stock market is getting ahead of itself. I am looking to sell on any additional rallies. FFP/JobsFAn and others have correctly pointed out we have 3-4 more weeks of severe Viral induced PAIN ahead. Deaths are going to mount. ICUs are full in NYC. The economy is going to tank. The market SHOULD re-test 2400 if not lower like 2250. Nothing goes straight up. Again, I am going to sell into the strength assuming we get any additional upticks then buy back at 2400 or 2350.

Yes, I am convinced that over the next 4-6 months the markets will rebound nicely even hitting 2800. But, this takes time and traders will lock in some profits along the way. That is your chance to buy equities.

3 more weeks? Are you high on Plaquenil?

 

[BLADEMDA]

Los Angeles is blowing up now.

Japan is blowing up after the olympics is delayed.

Turkey is blowing up too.

Things are long long away from getting controlled.

The markets can and do look past predictable events. Right now, traders are thinking this will be under control by Easter. They are wrong. That means much more volatility in April but by May the end of Covid 19 is likely in sight. Also, if a new effective treatment is found for Covid 19 (not mutating at this time) then that too will drive stocks higher.

 

[BLADEMDA]

3 more weeks? Are you high on Plaquenil?

4 more weeks until the deaths in NYC start to level off. I am an optimist that the social distancing and self-quarantines will start having an affect.

 

[Ronin786]

Drastic times, drastic measures.

Home quarantine for the city, only allow essential people to go to work.

Go to work via Uber and Taxi. Not much traffic when only 10% of cars on the road. The city could reimburse everyone for the additional expense, and still spend less money than keeping the subways open and infect millions more people.

It's not a hard decision. Cuomo FAILED to make this simple decision.

Remember how these other so called "leaders" called Trump "racist" for shutting down travel from China?

Somehow the rest of America has figured out how to do the whole quarantine thing well, except for the brainiacs in New York.

No wonder NYC is such a crapshow right now with a bunch of meatheads running it.

Ahh, the Trump playbook. Blame somebody else.

The new word out of Washington is the administration inherited a broken system. And (clearly) their lapdogs are buying it.

 

[BLADEMDA]

‘The rebound is going to be extraordinary’
“There is unbelievable monetary and fiscal stimulus that has come into play,” Dwyer said. “I know once we bottom out after the COVID-19 weakness has hit its limits, I think the rebound is going to be extraordinary.”
His game plan: Wait until stocks test the recent low before putting new money to work.
“Now is the time to think, as we pull back from this quick jump we had, what you want to buy for the intermediate term in a new bull market,” Dwyer said.

The S&P 500 just hit a level that could spark the next meltdown

Canaccord Genuity's Tony Dwyer says the market needs to test the "panic low" before an "extraordinary" rebound can unfold.

www.cnbc.com

Dwyer cites human nature of fear as the likely catalyst to interrupt the latest leg higher.

“Once you make a panic low, you typically have this relief rally,” Dwyer said. “Unfortunately, the vast majority of time you go back down and test that low.”

 

[GravelRider]

4 more weeks until the deaths in NYC start to level off. I am an optimist that the social distancing and self-quarantines will start having an affect.

3 more weeks until the peak of the surge in one of the worst case scenario models. If the social distancing starts to work then there are months of economic shutdown/slowdown ahead.

And that’s just in New York...

 

[BLADEMDA]

3 more weeks until the peak of the surge in one of the worst case scenario models. If the social distancing starts to work then there are months of economic shutdown/slowdown ahead.

And that’s just in New York...

NYC is the Epicenter. I suspect there will be no other city as bad as NYC in terms of Covid 19 ICU admissions/deaths. Economic shutdown for NYC doesn't mean the entire nation. San Francisco should be able to re-open for business much sooner than NYC for example.

 

[GravelRider]

NYC is the Epicenter. I suspect there will be no other city as bad as NYC in terms of Covid 19 ICU admissions/deaths. Economic shutdown for NYC doesn't mean the entire nation. San Francisco should be able to re-open for business much sooner than NYC for example.

No other city will have the same number of admissions/deaths as NYC is easily the most obvious statement of the year. No other city comes close to the population of NYC. That is not even close to the point, though. Another city can have a fraction of the admissions/deaths and have their healthcare system completely overwhelmed. Not becoming an “epicenter” only happens if you shut down. If you think this is over and that once NYC comes out on the other side then the economy will be roaring again then you simply haven’t been paying attention.

 

[Mikkel]

Ahh, the Trump playbook. Blame somebody else.

The new word out of Washington is the administration inherited a broken system. And (clearly) their lapdogs are buying it.

Cuomo has nobody to blame but himself.

Public officials in New York were telling New Yorkers TWO WEEKS AGO to not let racism win and instead to go to parades, restaurants, and parties.

That's all on New York officials. It's hilarious you would even dare say it's Trump's fault that those idiotic politicians told New Yorkers to party it up.

 

[deleted171991]

This is what's coming:

In drastic move, Italy shuts most factories to halt virus

Soave, Italy (AP) — Italy has become the first western developed nation to idle most of its industry to halt the spread of the coronavirus, a potential cautionary tale for other governments, such as the Trump administration, that are resisting such drastic measures.

apnews.com

 

[nimbus]

I can't think of any job losses that are NOT temporary.

Coal mining, steel mills, manufacturing, etc.

 

[nimbus]

This is what's coming:

In drastic move, Italy shuts most factories to halt virus

Soave, Italy (AP) — Italy has become the first western developed nation to idle most of its industry to halt the spread of the coronavirus, a potential cautionary tale for other governments, such as the Trump administration, that are resisting such drastic measures.

apnews.com

Ohhh no...not Ferrari

 

[nimbus]

Cuomo has nobody to blame but himself.

Public officials in New York were telling New Yorkers TWO WEEKS AGO to not let racism win and instead to go to parades, restaurants, and parties.

That's all on New York officials. It's hilarious you would even dare say it's Trump's fault that those idiotic politicians told New Yorkers to party it up.

Yes they delayed their response. And Deblasio failed to close the schools and was going to the gym until last week. Wishful thinking while the patient is going down the tubes. Plenty of blame to go around.

And apparently luxury condos are still a priority. They still don’t get it.

I’m glad everyone’s in agreement now that it’s not a hoax.

Virus Rules Let Construction Workers Keep Building Luxury Towers (Published 2020)

The laborers, deemed “essential” by New York, work side by side, often sharing portable toilets that rarely have soap or hand sanitizer.

www.nytimes.com

 

[nimbus]

Very interesting Goldman call with 1500 companies. Estimates of 150 million will get the virus in the US. Up to 2%, 3 million, will die (I think the number will be less). BUT 3 million elderly die each year from "old age" and disease, so they expect extensive overlap.

Fascinating is the 2 approaches debated on here are the 2 different approaches used by the US and UK dealing with Corona pre-vaccine:

"There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load."

A handful of people have been basically referred to as lunatics for questioning might letting it run its course mostly (UK Approach) be better than mass quarantine and shutdown (US Approach). At the least, this legitimizes that it's a rational discussion to have.

Johnson lost his nerve and gained his senses. Now he’s begging people to stay home.

 

[nimbus]

I think it will take us months to get where they are but Nanjing is reopening.

 

[Ezekiel2517]

No one knows when the bottom is but I definitely don't think we've seen it yet. The only way to buy at the bottom is to buy all the way down.

 

[parcus]

Why is it that the western world is so resistant to encouraging everyone to wear masks?

 

[GravelRider]

Why is it that the western world is so resistant to encouraging everyone to wear masks?

Because we don’t have enough. We are the richest nation in the history of the planet and we can afford to prop up failing industries with bad business practices, but we can’t afford masks.

 

[Mikkel]

Because we don’t have enough. We are the richest nation in the history of the planet and we can afford to prop up failing industries with bad business practices, but we can’t afford masks.

What are you talking about? We can afford masks easily.

It's not a question of money, it's a question of historical trends.

Air quality in Asia is garbage, hence why most people there wear masks every day. USA air quality is so much higher, hence the general American person does not have a supply of masks.

Also, people are hoarding.

 

[crash2500]

What are you talking about? We can afford masks easily.

It's not a question of money, it's a question of historical trends.

Air quality in Asia is garbage, hence why most people there wear masks every day. USA air quality is so much higher, hence the general American person does not have a supply of masks.

Also, people are hoarding.

He didn't actually mean that we couldn't afford them.

The government and the hospitals can't afford them because it's not a priority. Saving the economy is more of a priority than protecting the healthcare workers. It's sad. They don't give a Damn about us.

So if hospitals can't get masks, how the hell will the regular person get a regular supply during a pandemic.