USMLE Determination of best CK score predictors and estimated score (data needed)

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.


Full Member
Sep 14, 2011
Reaction score

Members don't see this ad.
Hi everyone,

So there is always the eternal debate about what is predictive of your CK score and which NBME is best etc etc. We all have anecdotal experiences, but as we all know, this can often lead us astray.

What I was hoping to do was to determine, with some scientific validity, what is the best score predictor in terms of practice exam and given the data about NBME/UWSA/Shelves/Step 1, what is the best predicted score that you can expect. I do a lot of outcomes research, so I have some experience with regression which I think can help us answer this question. To my knowledge, this does not exist for Step 2 CK (I know there is something for Step 1 from my recollection). Please correct me if I'm wrong.

So I know this may not work, but I was hoping the community of people who have taken their CK scores could input their data into this spreadsheet. If I can get at least 100 people to respond, I can give the community some semblance of hard data to at predict their scores with a little more accuracy than just our experiences. I know this data exists in the experiences thread, but I'm too lazy to extract it by hand one by one, so I would appreciate if people could input into the spreadsheet.

To fill out the spreadsheet, each row is an anonymous test taker. Each column is a score (3 digits for Step 1, 2 CK, NBME/UWSA and 2 digits for UW % and Shelf scores). You can leave any column blank, just fill out as much as you can.

Thanks in advance if you fill it out, I hope this will turn out to be helpful. Please post comments or suggestions as well.