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What say ye @Mister Mxyzptlk??
QE doesn't cause inflation, it just expands the money supply to more closely match the balances banks currently have on the books, effectively greasing the wheels of transactions. The money supply will likely be contacted soon as interest rates rise.Since I'm early in my career, I'm continuing to dollar cost average my way in every month when it's relatively oversold on medium term stochastics. If I was retiring this year I'd sell more than half and put the majority in 10 year bonds. Still waiting for inflation from all the QE and now due to planned infrastructure spending. Buy tax free municipal bonds or build a spec house to sell because the real estate market is high right now.
I think it's a good a time as any to buy but of course to stay diversified.
I mean who knows right? But despite what the talking heads say, I believe Trump is promising and is capable of delivering a much more stable and predictable business environment.
Consumer confidence is probably gonna soar, partly because expectations are so low and partly because Trump is a bloody genius.
hyper, you are a very smart dude... but you are out of your mind with that statement.
i was actually going to post something like drusso did, because i am completely economically confused right now.
in 2010, MM was posting all about doom and gloom, buying physical gold, hoarding water, etc. the kind of things you would see on doomsday preppers. despite his long posts and apparent knowledge, the soothsayer was summarily wrong. we all know how our 401ks have done in the last 7 years.
history would tell us that we are due for a downturn within the next few years regardless of trump. i think that securities will do well for another year or 2, then take a big hit. im not sure exactly why, but i wouldnt be surprised if the global and political climate forces a recession due to trumps isolationism. as much as he puts america first (some of which i agree with), our current economy is built on globalization. you cant just reverse that without serious economic ramifications.
im keeping a lot more in cash right now than i typically would, just to see which way the winds blow. it would be hard to believe that the market would continue to rise at this rate.
i am fascinated by the above. without knocking liberal thinking (sometimes i do but not this time) IMHO SS is allowing his POLITICAL beliefs to shape his INVESTMENT beliefs. i suspect SS thinks Trump is going to run America into the ground because he is a ***** and a political novice, for example initiating a trade war or maybe even another real war. ruinous inflation also. i get this from my brother all the time - who is an honest hard working left wing civil servant. no crystal ball here - and i spent a lifetime helping patients not investing - but - i pay for financial advice. oil is cheap. environmental and other regulations are being trashed . Corporate taxes will be cut from the highest in the world to middle of the road. we are going to see real inflation. we will also see a correction one of these days - but market timing is almost always a mistake for amateurs like us. the Left loves comparing Trump to Hitler - well get this - Germany was doing spectacularly economically in the 1930's under Hitler - way better than the USA. the question for my esteemed Left leaning colleague is - would you rather have had your money invested in German stock market or American stock market in the 1930's. hmmm?hyper, you are a very smart dude... but you are out of your mind with that statement.
i was actually going to post something like drusso did, because i am completely economically confused right now.
in 2010, MM was posting all about doom and gloom, buying physical gold, hoarding water, etc. the kind of things you would see on doomsday preppers. despite his long posts and apparent knowledge, the soothsayer was summarily wrong. we all know how our 401ks have done in the last 7 years.
history would tell us that we are due for a downturn within the next few years regardless of trump. i think that securities will do well for another year or 2, then take a big hit. im not sure exactly why, but i wouldnt be surprised if the global and political climate forces a recession due to trumps isolationism. as much as he puts america first (some of which i agree with), our current economy is built on globalization. you cant just reverse that without serious economic ramifications.
im keeping a lot more in cash right now than i typically would, just to see which way the winds blow. it would be hard to believe that the market would continue to rise at this rate.
i am fascinated by the above. without knocking liberal thinking (sometimes i do but not this time) IMHO SS is allowing his POLITICAL beliefs to shape his INVESTMENT beliefs. i suspect SS thinks Trump is going to run America into the ground because he is a ***** and a political novice, for example initiating a trade war or maybe even another real war. ruinous inflation also. i get this from my brother all the time - who is an honest hard working left wing civil servant. no crystal ball here - and i spent a lifetime helping patients not investing - but - i pay for financial advice. oil is cheap. environmental and other regulations are being trashed . Corporate taxes will be cut from the highest in the world to middle of the road. we are going to see real inflation. we will also see a correction one of these days - but market timing is almost always a mistake for amateurs like us. the Left loves comparing Trump to Hitler - well get this - Germany was doing spectacularly economically in the 1930's under Hitler - way better than the USA. the question for my esteemed Left leaning colleague is - would you rather have had your money invested in German stock market or American stock market in the 1930's. hmmm?
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes
DOW INDEXES
Thursday, January 26, 2017
P/E RATIO
DIV YIELD
1/26/2017† Year ago† Estimate^ 1/26/2017† Year ago†
Dow Industrial 20.85 15.76 17.97 2.38 2.78
Dow Transportation 17.33 11.40 16.25 1.29 1.64
Dow Utility 27.77 18.21 18.23 3.46 3.59
† Trailing 12 months
^ Forward 12 months from Birinyi Associates; updated weekly on Friday.
P/E data based on as-reported earnings; estimate data based on operating earnings.
Sources: Birinyi Associates; WSJ Market Data Group
OTHER INDEXES
Friday, January 20, 2017
P/E RATIO
DIV YIELD
1/20/2017† Year ago† Estimate^ 1/20/2017† Year ago†
Russell 2000 nil 107.00 18.87 1.55 1.85
Nasdaq 100 15.10 20.95 18.85 1.17 1.28
S&P 500 24.71 20.69 17.45 2.15 2.36
† Trailing 12 months
^ Forward 12 months from Birinyi Associates; updated weekly on Friday.
P/E data based on as-reported earnings; estimate data based on operating earnings.
//
Hitler achieved notable economic and diplomatic successes during the first five years of his rule. Hitler substantially revived the economy. Unemployment, so pivotal in bringing him to power, had dropped from 6 million to less than 1 million between 1933 and 1937, this at a time when the US was still wallowing in the Depression. National production and income doubled during the same period. This was partly owing to Hitler's rearmament policy, but also to more benign forms of public spending. The world's first major highway system, the autobahns, began snaking across the country, and there was talk of providing every citizen with a cheap, standardized car, the people's car, or Volkswagen.
Nazism took root in the world's most powerful scientific culture, boasting half of the world's Nobel Prizes and a sizable fraction of the world's patents. German science and medicine were the envy of the world, and it was to Germany - the "land of scholars and poets" - that many academic hopefuls flocked to cut their scientific teeth.//
the Right dislikes increasing the federal deficit. so does the Left BTW. i agree that long term increased state spending is probably negative for many investment markets but short term it almost by definition is good for markets - and if you are in cash now that is definitely short term thinking that the markets are going to immediately go down. regarding gassing your relatives, i agree that investing in 1930's Germany although smart economically was terrible ethically. comparing Trump to Hitler is certainly something i personally would never have thought of - i think the American Left came up with that comparison. Trump is a right wing populist, Hitler was a right wing socialist. but if it helps you think logically instead of with your feelings, Trump is WAY more pro Israel than Obama, is going to move the American embassy to the capital of Israel, and one of his daughters is an orthodox Jew. only thing Jews have to worry about under Trump is anti-Semitic backlash from the American Left - which probably will happen soon at most of the state funded college campuses across our nation. the Left is looking for scapegoats.i love money more than i hate trump. i wouldnt let me bias towards that d-bag could my investment thoughts
hitler provided a short-term economic boost by state-funded infrastructure and big spending. this is EXACTLY what the right hates. im not sure what side you are arguing for. to answer your rhetorical question, id rather invest my money in the government that DIDNT gas my great great grandparents
as i said before, we are due for a downturn anyway, and in my objective opinion, trump increases the likelihood of that happening.
the Right dislikes increasing the federal deficit. so does the Left BTW. i agree that long term increased state spending is probably negative for many investment markets but short term it almost by definition is good for markets - and if you are in cash now that is definitely short term thinking that the markets are going to immediately go down. regarding gassing your relatives, i agree that investing in 1930's Germany although smart economically was terrible ethically. comparing Trump to Hitler is certainly something i personally would never have thought of - i think the American Left came up with that comparison. Trump is a right wing populist, Hitler was a right wing socialist. but if it helps you think logically instead of with your feelings, Trump is WAY more pro Israel than Obama, is going to move the American embassy to the capital of Israel, and one of his daughters is an orthodox Jew. only thing Jews have to worry about under Trump is anti-Semitic backlash from the American Left - which probably will happen soon at most of the state funded college campuses across our nation. the Left is looking for scapegoats.
i respectfully disagree. there was a time, many years ago, when Israel was a Leftist country. back then, it was the darling of the American Left. recently Israel has moved way to the political Right, and the American Left now attacks it whenever they have a chance. American Jews have not all gotten the message yet...jews need to worry about anti-semitism from the alt-right, not the far left. trump enables that even though i admit that he hasnt singled out jews in particular.
This is all I'm saying - a Trump bump for a few years. I think Trump is like Hitler in that he is a nationalist/populist. He will shamelessly employ the ridiculous leverage that the US has in the world. Maybe others haven't used it because they wanted to convince the rest of the world that the US was different, an equal partner in a community of nations, not a "bully". Maybe other countries took advantage of this to a certain extent.im not all in cash right now. i agree that in the short term, there may be "trump-bump". but it is not sustainable. i dont know how long that will last. i also dont know if the infrastructure spending or trade wars are actually going to happen. do you?
i didnt compare trump to hitler. you invoked Godwin's law, not me. but, the comparisons are apt due to the rhetoric and his critique of media (not to mention the shaming of scientists and gag orders)
trump is pro-israel. i agree. the best way for hundreds of rockets to sail right into tel aviv would be to move the embassy. arabs usually just let things like that go. you know, they dont really hold a grudge.
jews need to worry about anti-semitism from the alt-right, not the far left. trump enables that even though i admit that he hasnt singled out jews in particular.
Bad..ass... I always wanted to build one of these: http://www.lancair.com/legacy/https://home.wellsfargoadvisors.com/tripp.boyer
This is my guy. Sons grew up from K-4 together and we coached several teams together.
He gladly gets my 1% and I do not think more about it than that. It lets me waste 10hrs per week trying to decide if I am goingto build one of these this starting this summer:
http://www.superlitecars.com/slc/
https://home.wellsfargoadvisors.com/tripp.boyer
This is my guy. Sons grew up from K-4 together and we coached several teams together.
He gladly gets my 1% and I do not think more about it than that. It lets me waste 10hrs per week trying to decide if I am goingto build one of these this starting this summer:
http://www.superlitecars.com/slc/
May wanna pay a little more attn to your money than that Steve. Men much closer than that have been known to steal from each otherhttps://home.wellsfargoadvisors.com/tripp.boyer
This is my guy. Sons grew up from K-4 together and we coached several teams together.
He gladly gets my 1% and I do not think more about it than that. It lets me waste 10hrs per week trying to decide if I am goingto build one of these this starting this summer:
http://www.superlitecars.com/slc/
You can do what buffett has done post trump election. I would wait for a crash personally ..Should I buy now or wait until an "international crisis" freaks people out and drives down the prices? It's hard to imagine there won't be multiple episodes of significant conflict that the media will do their part to magnify...
Should I buy now or wait until an "international crisis" freaks people out and drives down the prices? It's hard to imagine there won't be multiple episodes of significant conflict that the media will do their part to magnify...
betterment.com
0.15% fee/ year for funds > 100K...automated tax loss harvesting, goal directed savings and a beautiful platform
Learn from Harvaaaard's mistakes.....
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-26/the-day-harvard-stopped-being-a-hedge-fund
perhaps need to buy into what companies have invested into him
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/trump-thanks-l-l-bean-linda-bean-233529
he got that donation from ll bean and tweeted about supporting them. who are his cronies? big defense contractors? war machine? who's building the keystone pipeline? who do you contract to build a giant wall between two countries?
every time I feel like the market is starting to get too hot, I look through my portfolio to see what I should sell. somehow i rationalize why every equity is still a "hold"
that said, I haven't put any more cash into the market for the past 12 months and I missed out on the ride up
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/military-stocks-rally-trump-prepares-162200509.html
efense contractors rallied Monday after White House officials said President Donald Trump’s upcoming budget will propose a $54 billion increase in military funding.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), the top supplier to the Pentagon, nearly surpassed its 52-week high in mid-morning trading. Shares rose 1.6% to $268.32 a share. Since Election Day, Lockheed Martin has gained 11.9%. Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), Raytheon (NYSE:RTN) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) also spiked in Monday morning trade.
Many defense stocks have been up sharply since Election Day. Back in November, analysts predicted that a Trump victory would propel defense contractors, especially companies that build jets, tanks, ships and other heavy equipment.
The budget, which will be presented to Congress soon, will offset increases for the military with budget cuts across the rest of the federal government, according to FOX News. The White House is reportedly planning to cut funding from the EPA and State Department budgets.
Trump’s budget plan would allocate a total of $603 billion for the Pentagon, up from the current cap at $549 billion. The $54 billion increase would be approximately 3% more than former President Barack Obama’s proposed budget for the military in fiscal year 2018.
According to a recent Fox News poll, 58% of registered voters believe the U.S. military is stretched too thin. A quarter of the poll’s respondents said the government spends the right amount on the military. Another 45% believe the military spends too little, while 25% think it’s too much.
the fact that i have defense contractors and oil companies in my portfolio makes me want to vomit. not enough that i would divest,however. hippocracy noted.
also, havent we seen this playbook before? load up on the military spending, go to war, cut taxes, and fat cats get fatter. this is standard GOP shtick, which repeatedly ends in recession. we saw it with reagan and GHWB. clinton came in and fixed it. then we saw it with GWB -- obama came in and fixed it. without any real data behind me, it just feels like stocks will continue to rise for a couple years, and then take their inevitable drop. depends on how soon trump steps in it. i cant imagine i will all of a sudden pull out of the market, but i will keep a bit more cash in hand than i otherwise would have in the next few years.
Obama increased conflict in Syria, Libya and still remained with drone strikes in Iraq.
Stop the propaganda.
those examples are hardly the legitimate, trillion dollar wars under GWB, but i digress.
my overall point was bout the inevitability of a stock market correction.
misleading statistic. by dollar amount, correct without a doubt. but the dollar changes in value and the % amount of debt added to current debt is a more meaningful statistic.The DOW is 21K now.
Also, Obama increased debt by more than all other Presidents combined with trillion dollar deficits for years.
misleading statistic. by dollar amount, correct without a doubt. but the dollar changes in value and the % amount of debt added to current debt is a more meaningful statistic.
the percentage increase of Obama was 69%, less than George Bush's increase of 101%. much less than Reagan's 186% increase.
https://www.thebalance.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-3306296
so are 91% of these posts91% of statistics are made up on the spot.
misleading statistic. by dollar amount, correct without a doubt. but the dollar changes in value and the % amount of debt added to current debt is a more meaningful statistic.
the percentage increase of Obama was 69%, less than George Bush's increase of 101%. much less than Reagan's 186% increase.
https://www.thebalance.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-3306296