Do any of you daytrade stocks or options on days off?

[funnybanana]

With the ability to trade stocks so easily on phones, do any of you do it? Seems like it could be a way to bring in good money on days off. Just wanted to see what you all think of this.

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[JacobMcCandles]

Here we go…

 

[bravotwozero]

nope. way too risky, juice ain't worth the squeeze. Get rich slowly with the S&P 500. Slow and steady wins the race!

 

[skougess]

Yes definitely it’s really easy and as doctors we are specially trained in this easy money making technique that mega finance corporations somehow have to invest billions of dollars and insane human and technological capital to make it profitable.

You definitely have the edge on Wall Street with your Schwab account and iPhone. You definitely 100% won’t blow up your account.

 

[Fox800]

@cyanide12345678

 

[TooMuchResearch]

Do I dabble in some active management? Sure.
Day trade? No. Swing or long term positions only.
Don't know jack about options.

 

[cyanide12345678]

@cyanide12345678

View attachment 372560

Lol 😅😅😅

I dabble a little. I’ve sold and bought back 23k+ contracts so far this year. 25% ytd gain in 5 months. 65% gain in 12 months. 94 percent in 3 years since i started doing options.

I’ll just leave my last 12 month performance here. I didn’t just get there immediately. 2 years of experimenting with different strategies led to finally finding a winning formula and i stick very very very closely with that formula and do not deviate - i stomach massive volatility and watch the markets obsessively. The maximum account value i have lost in 1 day is 40k. It is not for everyone. Your question makes it sound like you don’t have a deep understanding of markets, investing etc. you make it sound like it’s easy money, it’s not. maybe after you put in 1000 hours of education, you could consider picking stocks, but even then, you’re probably better off investing in sp500. Unless you have an absolute passion and read financial statements, quarterly earnings, and just really follow the pulse on the market, then you could try.

 

[skougess]

Lol 😅😅😅

I dabble a little. I’ve sold and bought back 23k+ contracts so far this year. 25% ytd gain in 5 months. 65% ytd in 12 months. 94 percent in 3 years since i started doing options.

I’ll just leave my last 12 month performance here. I didn’t just get there immediately. 2 years of experimenting with different strategies led to finally finding a winning formula and i stick very very very closely with that formula and do not deviate - i stomach massive volatility and watch the markets obsessively. The maximum account value i have lost in 1 day is 40k. It is not for everyone. Your question makes it sound like you don’t have a deep understanding of markets, investing etc. you make it sound like it’s easy money, it’s not. maybe after you put in 1000 hours of education, you could consider picking stocks, but even then, you’re probably better off investing in sp500. Unless you have an absolute passion and read financial statements, quarterly earnings, and just really follow the pulse on the market, then you could try.

I know there’s no way I’d ever convince you, but you are massively MASSIVELY underestimating your risk if that’s the return you generated in 12 months. You won’t know your strategy isn’t working anymore (or if it ever worked and you’re just on a random walk) until you are way way down.

There’s a reason that rooms full of math PhDs backed by warehouses of servers spend all day everyday trying to crack 12% return. I guarantee you haven’t cracked the code as a part-time doctor, part time options trader.

And 3 years is but a blip in the market. It’s not a trend.

 

[Birdstrike]

I don't day trade or do options.

 

[RustedFox]

Long GME.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

Long GME.

Graduate Medical Education? I kid, I kid.

 

[PianoMedic]

My undergraduate major was Finance. I started a masters in finance that followed the CFA curriculum, but ended up finding my way into medicine instead. Trading your own account is extremely difficult to do. I personally do not do it, but know quite a bit about how it can be done. The data from finance studies are very clear: over long periods of time (decades), passive index fund investing will outperform nearly all active managers. At 30 years, 1% or less of active managers will have been able to outperform their index net of fees. It takes about 36 years (mathematically) to be able to say that a manager has “skill” and that their outperformance over the market wasn’t due to luck. Now if you take on extra risk, such as using leverage or options then yes you can outperform a market weighted index fund. But if you’re comparing on a risk adjusted basis, then a passive index fund is going to do better than any random active manager you pick. And you are unlikely to do better than an active manager with millions in AUM and all of the research that they have access to.

All of that said, if you’re going to pick your own stocks, you need to have a system in place and limit your position size. If this part of your portfolio goes to 0, it’s can’t screw you over for retirement. Best to allocate 5% to it at the outset and never rebalance into it. If you lose it all, you’re done, no more stock trading. If you’re one of those that does well, pull money out of the strategy when you’re up and keep it at 5%, turning that gain into passive index funds or ETFs. If it then goes to 0, well guess you were lucky and not good then eh? Don’t ever rebalance into this, only out of it. For the system, you need to have a thesis on why you’re buying a stock or using an options strategy. So if you think Tesla is going to do well from here, you need to have a thesis on why it deserves your investing dollars. You need to know at what point or price you would buy, and under what conditions you would sell. Look at Brian Feroldi’s youtube channel and twitter feed to find info on individual stock investing, there are other sources out there but his stuff is much less about getting you to buy things and more about education.

I would avoid options and/or futures, wouldn’t day trade. There are high efficiency traders out there now that are doing this for a living using computers faster than you or I can do it, there’s almost nothing left to arbitrage. A longer term options strategy can be hard to understand the underlying risks you’re taking on. Derivatives have embedded leverage in them which amplifies gains and losses, and can generate massive losses in a very short time if your strategy has a series of off days. If you decide to disregard the above and still want to trade options, you should still size it so you aren’t ruined if your strategy implodes, so 5% of your portfolio at most.

This also goes for things like cryptocurrency. Those markets are actually inefficient and it could be possible to trade there, but transaction costs will eat your profit alive. I’m not saying that the stock market is perfectly efficient. It is pretty efficient, and way more efficient than you or I can take advantage of. Any individual position that is super high volatility like crypto or options shouldn’t be a large part of your portfolio, 5% or less in total crypto would be best. Definitely no more than 5% of your portfolio in one crypto token.

TL;DR - I wouldn’t do options/individual stock investing, and I don’t do it, despite having knowledge and background in it. If you’re going to do it, size your position so you don’t blow up your chance at retiring on time, and don’t feed more money into it if you lose it all.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I know there’s no way I’d ever convince you, but you are massively MASSIVELY underestimating your risk if that’s the return you generated in 12 months. You won’t know your strategy isn’t working anymore (or if it ever worked and you’re just on a random walk) until you are way way down.

There’s a reason that rooms full of math PhDs backed by warehouses of servers spend all day everyday trying to crack 12% return. I guarantee you haven’t cracked the code as a part-time doctor, part time options trader.

And 3 years is but a blip in the market. It’s not a trend.

I do extensive risk management. But I’m not going to get into it here. I’ve done it extensively in previous threads.

If anyone is interested in understanding my risk management, you can send me a message.

The only thing i will say is that the only people who claim ‘omg omg risk!!!!!!’ Are the people who don’t understand the fluidity of options, how you can change things, and manage risk in doing so. One contract can be swapped for another, strike prices can be dropped, number of contracts can be dropped - it is extremely fluid.

 

[GonnaBeADoc2222]

I'm + 1 mil in net worth since 2017, despite a divorce, just by investing in boring ass index finds, paying off student debt, and not doing anything stupid.

Just set it and forget it.

 

[PianoMedic]

I do extensive risk management. But I’m not going to get into it here. I’ve done it extensively in previous threads.

If anyone is interested in understanding my risk management, you can send me a message.

The only thing i will say is that the only people who claim ‘omg omg risk!!!!!!’ Are the people who don’t understand the fluidity of options, how you can change things, and manage risk in doing so. One contract can be swapped for another, strike prices can be dropped, number of contracts can be dropped - it is extremely fluid.

Long term capital management also did extensive risk management, with the guys who created the theories underlying options pricing on their board. They still blew themselves up and almost took down the financial system. The options market can be fickle and depends on your counterparties to be there. Someone HAS to take the other side of your trade in options, most commonly now that would be institutions like insurance companies or investment banks. They’re hedging certain risks for themselves. If they decide those aren’t needed, liquidity won’t be there. I’d personally rather depend on American ingenuity and desire to always make more money/to grow earnings which over time translates to growth in the stock market rather than whether I am able to get an options trade to work. The finance industry is full of smart people doing this for a living. I’ll take the slow path to consistent wealth than the quicker path that has a non-zero chance of blowing up in my face and possibly ruining me.

 

[skougess]

I do extensive risk management. But I’m not going to get into it here. I’ve done it extensively in previous threads.

If anyone is interested in understanding my risk management, you can send me a message.

The only thing i will say is that the only people who claim ‘omg omg risk!!!!!!’ Are the people who don’t understand the fluidity of options, how you can change things, and manage risk in doing so. One contract can be swapped for another, strike prices can be dropped, number of contracts can be dropped - it is extremely fluid.

I have to ask then why you aren’t making a killing as a top hedge fund manager with your awesome, risk controlled, 33% yearly returns? Bernie Madoff would be in awe of you, even he didn’t have to promise that good of a return with his literal scam.

Surely Goldman Sachs is interested in your strategy and is ready for you to run a team for them and make 100x what you made as a physician?

 

[valianteffort]

I've been out of residency for about 4-5 years now. I day trade on my days off and rarely while at shift if it is dead. In the larger picture of experimenting with selling options (with many many failures) I have made some really high returns. I am not claiming to be some investment guru and I am aware of the risk of options. However, when you SELL the options (specifically puts) rather than partaking in purchasing them, you are at a huge advantage with delta/gamma/theta/vega. I recall reading a few months ago on this forum that someone (maybe it was @cyanide12345678?) sells tesla puts and makes a killing. I started selling weekly puts on TSLA as well using 6 figures of liquid cash and typically return around 4-5% per week selling them on red days. Sometimes I have to extend my put a few weeks when the price dips below my put value to not be assigned. Either way, just an example but this is extremely low effort and at times can produce a shift or two of pay on a day off depending how much liquid cash you have.

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Statistically hedge funds with far more resources/time and probably insider information as well don’t beat the S&P500 on average so it’s unlikely that a doctor would in his or her spare time.

 

[emergentmd]

I know that putting in the S&P, forgetting about it, keep putting it in will end up with a high likely hood of being very wealthy. Like everything we do in life, to me this is boring and I just can't get myself to do it. I don't day trade but trade a handful of stocks and I will say that I have failed miserable for the most part. I either just have no idea what to pick or just unlucky.

I could just put money into index funds but its just boring. So I will continue to pick individual stocks, like playing poker/gambling. I know its bad for you, but its entertainment for me.

I do sell options too but prob has as many misses as wins. Sold NVIDIA covered calls 6 months out and who knew it was going to essentially double. Sold Tesla Covered called to 9 months out and again, who knew it was going to climb significantly.


Its essentially entertainment and learning experience at this point for me.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

Long term capital management also did extensive risk management, with the guys who created the theories underlying options pricing on their board. They still blew themselves up and almost took down the financial system. The options market can be fickle and depends on your counterparties to be there. Someone HAS to take the other side of your trade in options, most commonly now that would be institutions like insurance companies or investment banks. They’re hedging certain risks for themselves. If they decide those aren’t needed, liquidity won’t be there. I’d personally rather depend on American ingenuity and desire to always make more money/to grow earnings which over time translates to growth in the stock market rather than whether I am able to get an options trade to work. The finance industry is full of smart people doing this for a living. I’ll take the slow path to consistent wealth than the quicker path that has a non-zero chance of blowing up in my face and possibly ruining me.

I have to ask then why you aren’t making a killing as a top hedge fund manager with your awesome, risk controlled, 33% yearly returns? Bernie Madoff would be in awe of you, even he didn’t have to promise that good of a return with his literal scam.

Surely Goldman Sachs is interested in your strategy and is ready for you to run a team for them and make 100x what you made as a physician?

We’ve hashed this out before but like most things, personal experience is the best teacher. Time will be a cruel teacher.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I've been out of residency for about 4-5 years now. I day trade on my days off and rarely while at shift if it is dead. In the larger picture of experimenting with selling options (with many many failures) I have made some really high returns. I am not claiming to be some investment guru and I am aware of the risk of options. However, when you SELL the options (specifically puts) rather than partaking in purchasing them, you are at a huge advantage with delta/gamma/theta/vega. I recall reading a few months ago on this forum that someone (maybe it was @cyanide12345678?) sells tesla puts and makes a killing. I started selling weekly puts on TSLA as well using 6 figures of liquid cash and typically return around 4-5% per week selling them on red days. Sometimes I have to extend my put a few weeks when the price dips below my put value to not be assigned. Either way, just an example but this is extremely low effort and at times can produce a shift or two of pay on a day off depending how much liquid cash you have.

Yes, i only sell puts. Never buy. Though i don’t do it on tsla. Too risky for my personal liking. I did once have a portfolio of puts on 50 individual stocks that i picked after some research, that strategy didn’t go so well and i pivoted.

Now i stick with etfs - ewz, fxi, kbe, kre, arkk, jets, soxl - these are my core etfs that i trade right now. My only single stock put is mpw and I’ve read every quarterly report they have and looked at financials extensively for them and truly truly truly believe they are under valued and will eventually be at fair value one interest rates normalize. It doesn’t hurt that my strike is at $6 which is significant downside protection as well.

 

[PianoMedic]

I've been out of residency for about 4-5 years now. I day trade on my days off and rarely while at shift if it is dead. In the larger picture of experimenting with selling options (with many many failures) I have made some really high returns. I am not claiming to be some investment guru and I am aware of the risk of options. However, when you SELL the options (specifically puts) rather than partaking in purchasing them, you are at a huge advantage with delta/gamma/theta/vega. I recall reading a few months ago on this forum that someone (maybe it was @cyanide12345678?) sells tesla puts and makes a killing. I started selling weekly puts on TSLA as well using 6 figures of liquid cash and typically return around 4-5% per week selling them on red days. Sometimes I have to extend my put a few weeks when the price dips below my put value to not be assigned. Either way, just an example but this is extremely low effort and at times can produce a shift or two of pay on a day off depending how much liquid cash you have.

This has been the reason I’m harping on this here: you need to understand the risks you’re taking. Selling puts can be low risk. But in the great financial crisis you would have lost your shirt. Make sure you fully understand all of the risks and mitigate them the best you can. Size your positions appropriately so it won’t negatively affect your financial position if things go sideways on you. I’m not saying we’re going into a similar timeframe to the GFC. But you need to know what happens if a similar event occurs ahead of time, so you can at least weigh that risk.

 

[PianoMedic]

I know that putting in the S&P, forgetting about it, keep putting it in will end up with a high likely hood of being very wealthy. Like everything we do in life, to me this is boring and I just can't get myself to do it. I don't day trade but trade a handful of stocks and I will say that I have failed miserable for the most part. I either just have no idea what to pick or just unlucky.

I could just put money into index funds but its just boring. So I will continue to pick individual stocks, like playing poker/gambling. I know its bad for you, but its entertainment for me.

I do sell options too but prob has as many misses as wins. Sold NVIDIA covered calls 6 months out and who knew it was going to essentially double. Sold Tesla Covered called to 9 months out and again, who knew it was going to climb significantly.


Its essentially entertainment and learning experience at this point for me.

Some people can’t control themselves with trading and want to do those things. Just size it right (5% ideally doesn’t mess most people up) so it doesn’t cause an issue for you (sounds like that’s what you’re doing). If it keeps your hands off the rest of your portfolio, all the better.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I have to ask then why you aren’t making a killing as a top hedge fund manager with your awesome, risk controlled, 33% yearly returns? Bernie Madoff would be in awe of you, even he didn’t have to promise that good of a return with his literal scam.

Surely Goldman Sachs is interested in your strategy and is ready for you to run a team for them and make 100x what you made as a physician?

How do i find that job with goldman 😅? I would love to transition into finance honestly, but i can’t restart my career making 100k and working 80 hours a week. Otherwise i don’t have ANY credentials to begin at a higher level.

Though i don’t need to make other people money, I’m happy making myself 20-30 percent a year. And the problem with managing other people’s money is that the moment there is a dip, people get fearful and pull money out. That’s the exact opposite behavior of what is needed to make money.

It’s fine. Be skeptical. Doesn’t really matter to me. I’ll keep doing what i do, I’ll be making another 4-5 percent (20-25k) in 3 months soon. And that’s actually with a low risk portfolio.

I’m also funneling a large portion of my gains into physical real estate as a diversification into minimal correlation assets.

 

[emergentmd]

Some people can’t control themselves with trading and want to do those things. Just size it right (5% ideally doesn’t mess most people up) so it doesn’t cause an issue for you (sounds like that’s what you’re doing). If it keeps your hands off the rest of your portfolio, all the better.

I think I am a serial shoot for the moon and broad market ETFs is just too boring. I know, I know my thinking is wrong but there are things in life you do when you know is probably not the best bet. I always recommend Broad market investments to anyone who asks but just not what I enjoy doing. I prob lost 2M+ by doing individual stocks (yes many went to zero) instead of doing S&P 500. I don't think I have ever bought/held a broad market fund in anything other than 529s b/c there is no choice for individual stock picking.

But taking risks is what I enjoy and overall I believe I am ahead in other aspects of investing.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

Though i don’t need to make other people money, I’m happy making myself 20-30 percent a year. And the problem with managing other people’s money is that the moment there is a dip, people get fearful and pull money out. That’s the exact opposite behavior of what is needed to make money.

Starting with $1 million getting 30% a year for 30 years with no additional contributions is $2.6 billion.

 

[skougess]

Starting with $1 million getting 30% a year for 30 years with no additional contributions is $2.6 billion.

And it’s all “low risk”, so I look forward to seeing him on the cover of Forbes in a few years.

It’s akin to using the “double my bet every time I lose” system in Vegas. It actually can work really well for a long time until you reach the day of reckoning.

Likely cyanide’s system is a statistical loser that he’s had a short run of success on. And again, 3 years it’s a short run in the market.

Selling and buying options is a zero sum proposition unless you have the market capitalization to be a true market maker. And in that case you are not looking for a return, but just a margin for being a market maker.

 

[Apollyon]

I have to wonder - I've seen it a few times on SDN. Person X says they made money in the market. Another person or two comes in and craps all over them, saying they're lying, or not that good, or they'll lose it all. But, they don't stop there. They just keep hammering, on and on, instead of making their point, and making their peace. I wonder what is the angle.

 

[RustedFox]

I have to wonder - I've seen it a few times on SDN. Person X says they made money in the market. Another person or two comes in and craps all over them, saying they're lying, or not that good, or they'll lose it all. But, they don't stop there. They just keep hammering, on and on, instead of making their point, and making their peace. That smacks of projection, or displacement. Or whatever!

I read WallStreetBets for more colorful humor.

 

[Apollyon]

I read WallStreetBets for more colorful humor.

You got me before I edited!

 

[skougess]

I have to wonder - I've seen it a few times on SDN. Person X says they made money in the market. Another person or two comes in and craps all over them, saying they're lying, or not that good, or they'll lose it all. But, they don't stop there. They just keep hammering, on and on, instead of making their point, and making their peace. I wonder what is the angle.

Because it’s infuriating to have a person return from Vegas up $50k and tell you that you just have to “gamble smart”. *shrug*

 

[Apollyon]

Because it’s infuriating to have a person return from Vegas up $50k and tell you that you just have to “gamble smart”. *shrug*

I worked in the gaming industry. Bar none, they all lose. All. Every single one. More people make money in the markets.

The markets aren't speculating. Gaming is.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

I have to wonder - I've seen it a few times on SDN. Person X says they made money in the market. Another person or two comes in and craps all over them, saying they're lying, or not that good, or they'll lose it all. But, they don't stop there. They just keep hammering, on and on, instead of making their point, and making their peace. I wonder what is the angle.

It's important for those who are financial beginners (and with a decent income like physicians) to understand that the random person on the internet doesn't average 30% over a course of a lifetime. It's almost borderline financial malpractice. Very few people can beat the market long term but A LOT of people try and/or think they're smarter, better, etc.

 

[Apollyon]

It's important for those who are financial beginners (and with a decent income like physicians) to understand that the random person on the internet doesn't average 30% over a course of a lifetime. It's almost borderline financial malpractice. Very few people can beat the market long term but A LOT of people try and/or think they're smarter, better, etc.

But, how do you reconcile "nothing succeeds like success"? If dude is making money in hand, you can't object to that. By hook or by crook, some people can do it. I strongly doubt someone here is randomly saying, "He did it, I can do it", and putting themselves into financial jeopardy with no knowledge of what they are doing.

So, again, dismissing someone repetitively seems ineffectual. To quote the first three of Loeb's Laws of Medicine: 1. If what you are doing is working, keep doing it 2. If what you're doing isn't working, stop and 3. If you don't know what to do, don't do anything. I think they can apply here.

 

[JacobMcCandles]

But, how do you reconcile "nothing succeeds like success"? If dude is making money in hand, you can't object to that. By hook or by crook, some people can do it. I strongly doubt someone here is randomly saying, "He did it, I can do it", and putting themselves into financial jeopardy with no knowledge of what they are doing.

So, again, dismissing someone repetitively seems ineffectual. To quote the first three of Loeb's Laws of Medicine: 1. If what you are doing is working, keep doing it 2. If what you're doing isn't working, stop and 3. If you don't know what to do, don't do anything. I think they can apply here.

The issue isn’t if someone can beat the market in a year or several years. It’s the issue that people really can’t do it over a career. People can’t quit when they’re ahead. There’s no such thing as easy money in the market. Things go well until they don’t.

But, it doesn’t affect me but novices have the right to know they have better odds of winning the Powerball than averaging 20-30% over a career.

 

[forchinet121]

How do i find that job with goldman 😅? I would love to transition into finance honestly, but i can’t restart my career making 100k and working 80 hours a week. Otherwise i don’t have ANY credentials to begin at a higher level.

Though i don’t need to make other people money, I’m happy making myself 20-30 percent a year. And the problem with managing other people’s money is that the moment there is a dip, people get fearful and pull money out. That’s the exact opposite behavior of what is needed to make money.

It’s fine. Be skeptical. Doesn’t really matter to me. I’ll keep doing what i do, I’ll be making another 4-5 percent (20-25k) in 3 months soon. And that’s actually with a low risk portfolio.

I’m also funneling a large portion of my gains into physical real estate as a diversification into minimal correlation assets.

I have to chime in and ask, do you think you are actually going to average 20-30 percent over 30 years? What do you think you’re going to average over 30 years?

 

[emergentmd]

I worked in the gaming industry. Bar none, they all lose.

I have played BJ by the rules, always lose faster than what numbers should predict. I have played craps, and always lose but much slower than BJ.
Everything else esp slots are many times worse.

I will say my history of Poker sessions are 70% win, 20% break even, and 10% loses. But Poker is a game of skill and not house weighted luck.

 

[Siggy]

I worked in the gaming industry. Bar none, they all lose. All. Every single one. More people make money in the markets.

The markets aren't speculating. Gaming is.

High-Low count would like to have a word.

That said, most people who think they can count cards... can't... because if nothing else keeping a count doesn't matter if you aren't playing perfect basic strategy at a minimum (or using appropriate deviations). Gotta hit that 16 v 10 with a negative count. Gotta keep putting that huge bet out after the dealer gets a black jack.

 

[Siggy]

I have played BJ by the rules, always lose faster than what numbers should predict. I have played craps, and always lose but much slower than BJ.
Everything else esp slots are many times worse.

I will say my history of Poker sessions are 70% win, 20% break even, and 10% loses. But Poker is a game of skill and not house weighted luck.

Soft 18 vs dealer 3... what do you do?

 

[Apollyon]

Soft 18 vs dealer 3... what do you do?

The book says double, but stand is also viable.

 

[Apollyon]

High-Low count would like to have a word.

That said, most people who think they can count cards... can't... because if nothing else keeping a count doesn't matter if you aren't playing perfect basic strategy at a minimum (or using appropriate deviations). Gotta hit that 16 v 10 with a negative count. Gotta keep putting that huge bet out after the dealer gets a black jack.

The only countable games are shoe blackjack. And to say that is disingenuous, for several reasons. First, that's not a game. Second, although "allowed", casinos are free to bar whomever they want, so, they won't let you keep playing when they catch you, and only have to refund your money 1-1. They will catch you, because the margins for the counter are so low, so, if you are going to make any money, it's obvious. If you bet less, there's no advantage to count. And, it's obvious who is counting. And, you might not know this, but, card counters are put on a national database.

No game has an edge - it's always house advantage, else everyone would play, and the casino would go out of business. Hand dealt poker is different, because, as Emergent says, you're playing the man, not the house, but, to compensate, the house has a "rake" (the percentage they take of the pot to cover themselves).

But, any game, from roulette to blackjack to the carnival games (3 Card Poker, Mississippi Stud, Caribbean Stud, Pai Gow, Spanish 21, Mini Bac, those), are all random. Data from the last hand is not applicable to the next hand. So, any data from the current hand is minimal. The three prongs of a novelty game are: 1. Easy enough to understand how to play 2. big enough jackpots and 3. house edge is enough. Mississippi Stud stands alone for card games outside the poker room, as the dealer does not play. Jackpots seem like a fortune. But, the odds for MS are some of the worst.

The difference is, you can read and follow business trends, and see how things go. Even dumb luck, like having a zoo bird crap on the financial pages and buying that, or throwing a dart at the paper, will let someone win. But, one can increase their chances of making money (like an index fund; as is amply stated, passively investing there will beat active investors over whatever the timeframe above was mentioned). No amount of studying will give an advantage to slot machines or table games. The closest is the basic strategy for BJ, and that just leads to the slowest loss of money.

The first mistake of any casino is walking through the door.

 

[Apollyon]

But, it doesn’t affect me but novices have the right to know they have better odds of winning the Powerball than averaging 20-30% over a career.

Do you know what the Powerball odds are? If you want dismal, those are they. By your statement, that means only 1.5 people in the entire US will average 20-30% over a career. I can't think of anything there is only one of in the entire country, except my name. There is no one else in the US with the same first and last name as me. And it's only 10 letters for both names.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I have to chime in and ask, do you think you are actually going to average 20-30 percent over 30 years? What do you think you’re going to average over 30 years?

Probably 20-25 the next 3-4 years. I rely on my income as a back stop safety valve. I don’t know how much I’m going to be working after 3-4 years. The more i have to lose, the more conservative my portfolio becomes as well. After 3-4 million in investable assets ive essentially won the game already. There’s no need for significant risk taking then - heck, I might even have a portfolio of 100% JEPI in 5-10 years, who knows.

After i win the game, I’m probably going to start dropping risk even more and start aiming for 12-15 per year. 12-15 is easy to do. Even right now my current portfolio is fairly low risk. My largest holding, ewz, if it dropped 3 percent tomorrow ($1 drop from current price), my account would only drop 0.5 percent. My strike is actually 20+ percent below the current price. So it’s less risk than holding an etf of 50 diversified companies. My second largest holding is an ETF of 200 or so companies, if that dropped 2.5 percent ($1 drop from current price) then my drop in account value is only 0.07%. My strike price is 40.4 percent below current price. This portfolio will get me 17.5k in 3 months. Will probably get a few grand more since a large chunk of those positions are just 50 days away from expiration and there’s more time value i can squeeze out.

But essentially, my portfolio is currently going to behave as less risk than actually holding the underlying etfs that I’m selling puts on. And that’s why it’s low risk. Believe it or not, it’s low reward too - my account only went up 2 percent these last two days when ewz and kre went up ridiculously. So when kre went up 6 percent on Friday, it only gave me a 0.5 percent account value gain as well. Low reward = low risk.

Was my account much higher risk before, yes. It’s been A lot more risk before. But i don’t take risk with low vix and low volatility, ill make a play when things are going to hell, vix jumps, volatility climbs etc. But it’s not like one can’t drop risk within 5 minutes of trading, that’s a concept people who don’t trade don’t understand. And I’ve traded with huge positions, dropped risk multiple times already in the past - i mean everyone keeps talking about reckoning etc - when things drop massively, volatility spikes, honestly that’s when I’ve made my real money as a put seller.

Always remember Risk is very very easy to drop. Takes 2 mins to trade and drop strike and number of contracts.

And to all the haters saying there will be reckoning - I’ve held 900 contracts of pins when it missed earnings and dropped 25 percent in 1 day. I’ve held hundreds of contracts of Meta when it missed earnings and dropped from 125 to 86 within a week. I’ve held 1000 contracts of ewz when it dropped from 30.5 to 25 in 2 weeks. I’ve had plenty of reckonings. They are fun. Because honestly, that’s when I’ve actually made my money.

The point is …. I’ve managed so much more risk through 25 percent drops in 1 day lol. No my account didn’t blow up. No there was no reckoning. Now i just have a vanilla portfolio aiming for a happy 1.5 to 2 percent a month lol.

 

[emergentmd]

Soft 18 vs dealer 3... what do you do?

I split KQ against dealer 2 to 6 which should give you your answer.

Double down baby

 

[cyanide12345678]

The issue isn’t if someone can beat the market in a year or several years. It’s the issue that people really can’t do it over a career. People can’t quit when they’re ahead. There’s no such thing as easy money in the market. Things go well until they don’t.

But, it doesn’t affect me but novices have the right to know they have better odds of winning the Powerball than averaging 20-30% over a career.

Never said I’m averaging that over my career. Just aiming for 20 percent return until i hit 3M. But the closer i get to that number, the more conservative my account will get.

Also 1 in 20 fund managers beat the spy over long periods, it’s not like no body does it.

Every year you guys say the same thing - ‘omg!! Options!!!! Riskkkk!!!! You’re going to burn!!!! Reckoning!!!!!!!’ - it’s getting old. I’m still making a lot of money, i made a lot of it last year too. My ytd gain is higher than my family medicine doctor wife’s ytd income. So yeah, it’s still going okay

4 years out of training this July - net worth 1.55M and climbing. Hitting 2M probably by july 2024. It’s definitely going alright

 

[Apollyon]

I split KQ against dealer 2 to 6 which should give you your answer.

Double down baby

Splitting 10s is a mark. Just sayin'.

 

[skougess]

All I will say is this to try and help anyone reading this thread. I have a close family member who owned their own options trading business on the exchanges in the 80s/90s. They were adamant that when they did dabble a bit in trading for their own account on occasion, even with their position on the exchange it was exceptionally difficult to make money. The money in the business wasn’t made on speculation and holding contracts, but filling orders on behalf of others and capturing the spread and/or commission (because of course options do actually have a noble financial purpose that is not just “this is a way I could get rich!”).

The idea that you will figure out a system that is better than someone who was on the trading floor and did this for a living with all the access to market makers, technology, expertise, etc approaches zero. They even laughed that during the latter part of their career, the poor people trading through Schwab and other online brokerages would frequently have orders come in late that had already taken a bath, and they would fill them immediately making a nice profit on the spread.

If you are making great money for a few years, you have misunderstood the risk you are taking.

Edit: As an aside, I do find it amusing that we constantly (rightfully) bash on midlevel hubris on this board, but then when it comes to financial plays, apparently global financial giants and experts just aren’t smart like we are when it comes to making money! Human nature, I guess.

 

[GatorCHOMPions]

Thus far I’ve been an index funder but it’s become admittedly boring and @cyanide12345678 and @emergentmd tales have intrigued me to dig a little deeper into options and real estate, respectively. But then posts like @JacobMcCandles and @skougess serve to ground me again.

As an outsider newbie it’s great to have all of these perspectives. In the end one should take it all in from those more experienced, educate oneself, and make as best a decision as possible for one’s own comfort level.

 

[skougess]

Thus far I’ve been an index funder but it’s become admittedly boring and @cyanide12345678 and @emergentmd tales have intrigued me to dig a little deeper into options and real estate, respectively. But then posts like @JacobMcCandles and @skougess serve to ground me again.

As an outsider newbie it’s great to have all of these perspectives. In the end one should take it all in from those more experienced, educate oneself, and make as best a decision as possible for one’s own comfort level.

Real estate is a whole different ballgame than stock/options speculation. The greater return is there, but the trade off is you basically have a part time job to manage your buildings.

 

[GatorCHOMPions]

Real estate is a whole different ballgame than stock/options speculation. The greater return is there, but the trade off is you basically have a part time job to manage your buildings.

Yea I know there can be significant differences but I just lumped them together as the alternate investment SDN gurus. It seems that some of the stuff emergent dabbles in is sometimes risky in its own right, though.