My point is, that anyone who goes to a Caribbean school has just about the same likelihood of graduating that they would if they instead attended a US-MD school. Looking at attrition rates makes the false assumption that US-MD and C-MD schools are made up of equally bright/motivated students.
Well, the problem with that notion is that attrition is actually pretty negligible in US allo med schools. Only about 1.5% end up leaving for academic reasons. Which means, if you get into a US med school, you will generally become a doctor. It may not be in 4 years, but it's going to happen eventually if you want it, even if you aren't the brightest and most motivated in your class. They will make you earn it, but statistically, if you got in, you will get through. The same can't be said for offshore schools. There are
tons of folks who move off to schools and don't make the cut, and then are out many thousands of dollars with no degree. So when someone is contemplating going offshore for school, the odds of being successful must include risk of attrition. Just looking at match lists of folks who are successful doesn't paint the true picture -- you have to look at the larger group of first years who didn't make it that far. You can't really know starting out in which group you are going to be. You'd obviously like to be in the successful group, and will be doing your best, but you get no assurance. Most people who go to caribbean schools do so because US allo doors weren't open; if they got into the US and want to practice in the US, they would have gone to the US. Thus they already have a lot in common with their peers, and are equally on the chopping block. So yeah, if you are realistically considering this route, then you are someone who has to take into account the attrition rates, because the same factors that made the caribbean a reasonable option for you are the ones that suggest that attrition could be a risk. So yes -- if offshore schools lop off a half of their class before graduation, and you are the kind of person who needed to go to a caribbean school, then yes, you have a 50% chance of not making it to graduation, and likewise, if 40% of non-US educated students don't match that ought to be a bit concerning for someone considering an offshore education and a US residency, particularly when the match rates for US allo last year were 94.2%.
The plain and simple truth is that there is no better path for landing a US residency than a US med school. But if you have to go elsewhere, then you have to really shine, because the odds aren't nearly as stacked in your favor, and you have to be a LOT better than your US counterpart to even get looked at in the same pile. That's the system in place.