Do you guys think that this will happen?

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RussianJoo

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So I keep hearing that AMGs are more and more worried about the increased number of applicants this year and are thus going on more interviews than in the previous years.

So I was thinking, pretty much the same group of people gets invited to the same places, if AMGs go on 15 interviews which i have heard of some going on or even more, and end up matching in their top 5 (which most AMGs do) then the low tier community programs will go unmatched, because they fill their interview slots with AMGs and less IMGs thinking that they'll match the AMGs because so many more applied to their program this year but in the end the AMGs end up ranking University programs higher, thus screwing over the low tier community programs, because they didn't have the opportunity of interviewing people who would end up ranking their program high.

Does that make sense? Do you guys think it could happen? Just because I have noticed that many IMGs are complaining of low interview numbers, much more than usual, and i am assuming this is due to the fact that more AMGs are holding on to more interviews.

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You are overthinking things. Yes, this year is prob slightly more competitive than last which was slightly more competitive than the year before.Programs know what type of applicant is gonna realistically come to their program and although they attempt to get the best people they can they set things up interview wise so that they will have no problem matching.Low to mid tier programs interview "stretch candidates" that they hope will come to their program but understand most likely won't.They interview middle of the road applicants who will make up the majority of their class and they interview a few stand outs with impressive cv's but with perhaps some lower credentials, who would love to come there. It all balances out.
 
In an interesting twist, I know of one IMG who matched to Anesth at my home program while 3 applicants from my class (obviously AMG) didn't match.

So my home program took an IMG over any of them.

That IMG, though, I heard, had worked for the department for two years...and her verbal communication in English was excellent.

I guess in her case, interest and the fact that she didn't have any obvious negatives (for most IMGs unfortunately that usually translates to poor English-speaking skills) trumped the fact that they were from a top 10 US med school.

Outlier? Maybe.
 
You are overthinking things. Yes, this year is prob slightly more competitive than last which was slightly more competitive than the year before.Programs know what type of applicant is gonna realistically come to their program and although they attempt to get the best people they can they set things up interview wise so that they will have no problem matching.Low to mid tier programs interview "stretch candidates" that they hope will come to their program but understand most likely won't.They interview middle of the road applicants who will make up the majority of their class and they interview a few stand outs with impressive cv's but with perhaps some lower credentials, who would love to come there. It all balances out.

I actually believe this scenario posted by the OP is possible and not completely far-fetched. Sure, programs know what type of candidates they are going for, but if each candidate is going on more interviews, this will leave fewer interview spots for those who in past years may have been offered interviews at certain programs. In the end, each candidate will only match into 1 program, and some programs (mostly community ones) may suffer. I don't know about other schools, but everyone at my school seems to be interviewing at more places than in past years.

However, this is not something you can control anyway, so just try your best in the interview process.
 
In an interesting twist, I know of one IMG who matched to Anesth at my home program while 3 applicants from my class (obviously AMG) didn't match.

So my home program took an IMG over any of them.

That IMG, though, I heard, had worked for the department for two years...and her verbal communication in English was excellent.

I guess in her case, interest and the fact that she didn't have any obvious negatives (for most IMGs unfortunately that usually translates to poor English-speaking skills) trumped the fact that they were from a top 10 US med school.

Outlier? Maybe.

Actually this is quite common, I think except in BWH and UCSF (a few others as well). Even the top programs will take 1-2 IMGs who have demonstrated excellence in multiple aspects. Of course, English skills are mandatory...but these IMGs typically have over the top scores, multiple publications, interest as you mentioned, excellent letters from clinical rotations in the states. I am beginning to see even top programs taking 1-2 top notch IMGs every year, rather than the middle of the road candidate - and thus, while prestige of the med school is important, it is not the only thing (in most programs - in some programs it still is).

To the OP - yes, it evens out. From what I know, IMGs who had a good CV and the required credentials have fared well in this interview season, IMHO much better than last year (at least for Internal Medicine).
 
It is also not far fetched for programs to turn to IMGs to help lift their program. If you have flagging board pass rates because you are not able to obtain decent AMG, signing top quality IMGs is a better deal.
 
I actually believe this scenario posted by the OP is possible and not completely far-fetched. Sure, programs know what type of candidates they are going for, but if each candidate is going on more interviews, this will leave fewer interview spots for those who in past years may have been offered interviews at certain programs. In the end, each candidate will only match into 1 program, and some programs (mostly community ones) may suffer. I don't know about other schools, but everyone at my school seems to be interviewing at more places than in past years.

However, this is not something you can control anyway, so just try your best in the interview process.

The candidates may be going on more interviews but just because the paranoid kid from yale goes to the interview at the mid to low tier program doesnt mean hes going to go there.The program understands this and their invites and rank order list reflects it so it balances out. Programs don't send out invites with the idea that good u.s students will cancel the interview.They hope everyone invited schedules their interview but if they don't they can go back into their pool of applicants.
 
You are overthinking things....Programs know what type of applicant is gonna realistically come to their program and although they attempt to get the best people they can they set things up interview wise so that they will have no problem matching.Low to mid tier programs interview "stretch candidates" that they hope will come to their program but understand most likely won't.They interview middle of the road applicants who will make up the majority of their class and they interview a few stand outs with impressive cv's but with perhaps some lower credentials, who would love to come there. It all balances out.

I think I agree with this. However, I don't know how competitive anesthesia is this year...it's one of those specialties that tends to ebb and flow a bit in terms of competitiveness. Even famous programs (even in low competition specialties like IM) occasionally fail to fill. It's usually because of some bad rumors swirling about that particular program on the interview trail, or a bad call schedule, or that they just didn't interview enough candidates. Most programs, though, know how many people, and what kind of people, they need to interview in order to fill. If some community programs don't fill, that will just mean more spots open in the scramble, though...which is a sucky thing to have to deal with but would still ultimately end up with the same number of candidates ending up in a program somewhere.
 
thanks guys.. i was just wondering because i think my classmates overall are getting less interviews than in the previous years so i was just thinking maybe this is because more AMGs are going on more interviews and thus hogging them up from us. And the people I've spoken to have great grades and step scores so that wasn't the issue. Also we're all US-IMGs so english has never been a problem.

I was just using this scenario to try to rethink the number of interviews needed to have a good chance at matching. I know in the past the magic number was between 10 and 12 interviews will give you a 90%+ chance of matching, now i was hoping because more AMGs are going on more interviews that number for IMGs might drop to 8 or 9 interviews.

Like some have said I'm most likely over thinking this and really there's no rhyme or reason on how the match works so and it's obvious that the more interviews that you have the better your chance of matching and that if you're really worried about not matching you should go on as many interviews as you can afford.

I guess we'll see what happens in a few months.
 
thanks guys.. i was just wondering because i think my classmates overall are getting less interviews than in the previous years so i was just thinking maybe this is because more AMGs are going on more interviews and thus hogging them up from us. And the people I've spoken to have great grades and step scores so that wasn't the issue. Also we're all US-IMGs so english has never been a problem.

I was just using this scenario to try to rethink the number of interviews needed to have a good chance at matching. I know in the past the magic number was between 10 and 12 interviews will give you a 90%+ chance of matching, now i was hoping because more AMGs are going on more interviews that number for IMGs might drop to 8 or 9 interviews.

Like some have said I'm most likely over thinking this and really there's no rhyme or reason on how the match works so and it's obvious that the more interviews that you have the better your chance of matching and that if you're really worried about not matching you should go on as many interviews as you can afford.

I guess we'll see what happens in a few months.

I actually thought of exactly the same scenario.

My thinking was, there are more applications this year, with the same number of invites.

1. Good candidates will get more interviews, simply because they applied to more places. Poor candidates will be left in the dust.

2. Candidates will go on said interviews (and run into each other a few times)

3, Candidates will submit long ROLs with a lot of overlap. Programs will submit ROLs with a lot of overlap, but of the usual length.

Heres the kicker - The Match Algorithm will do its thing, and put applicants on "tentative matches" (or whatever the computer calls them), which will be tentatively pulled away from a LOT of Programs' ROL. For each subsequent applicant's tentative match, the computer will have to look farther and farther down on each Programs dwindling ROL. Remember, the Program's ROL is not any longer than usual.

Ultimately, many mid-low tier programs will have had many of their candidates pulled away by more desirable programs (as per the applicant ROL), and have gone to the bottom of their ROL without filling.

My conclusion - a Lot of Programs will need to scramble.
 
It is also not far fetched for programs to turn to IMGs to help lift their program. If you have flagging board pass rates because you are not able to obtain decent AMG, signing top quality IMGs is a better deal.

More AMGs means such programs will have a better shot at obtaining decent AMGs than they did in years past. And they would prefer AMGs because, while board pass rates are important, not having to supervise as much and translate and run interference for folks who haven't done US rotations and sub-Is is important to the PD, whose headache this becomes when an IMG looks good on paper but due to lack of exposure to the US system does not prove to be as high up on the steep internship learning curve in terms of ward work. I think more often than not if a program can choose between a US allo grad and an offshore grad, the US allo grad has a huge leg up in this process. Which is a why the fact that US grads are increasing their numbers by about 20% is going to be a huge hit to those folks who depended on the overflow.
 
I definitely believe this scenario posted by the OP is possible and is happening as we speak!! I personally know several people who went on 20+ interviews and two guys that went on 30+ interviews across 3 specialties. Obviously, these individuals will only match at one program in one specialty. I myself went on a healthy number of interviews, around 15 or so and saw several people that I had met at previous interviews several times. I think some programs are aware of this and thats why they ask how many programs you applied to. Since matching is becoming more and more competitive each year, I think applicants will continue to go on more and more interviews. Regardless of the fact that each program has a general idea of who they can realistically match, the bottom line is that more and more interviews are being sucked up by a smaller number of applicants each year that are applying across 2 or more specialties. One day, the NRMP may have to put a limit on how many programs an applicant can rank. That would eliminate this problem. As of now, I think they simply charge you extra for each program over 20.
 
As of now, I think they simply charge you extra for each program over 20.
Or 30 if you're couples matching, FYI. And that's 30 distinct programs, so you can combine them in various ways without paying extra. My ROL length is in the 50's because of this and I didn't pay any extra fees.
 
I have the exact opposite prediction: this will be the worse year ever for scrambling. I know my school is advising students to rank essentially every program they interviewed at, even if they think it won't be the greatest, because the old thought process of only ranking places you'd like to go to is over because of the last few years with scrambling difficulties. So programs that used to go unfilled will have more people matching into them instead of those canidates going unmatched and relying on the scramble. Last year there were only 2 OB spots in the scramble. I think there were 70 categorical surgical spots. I wouldn't be surprised if there were 0 in each of those specialties. You just watch.
 
I have the exact opposite prediction: this will be the worse year ever for scrambling. I know my school is advising students to rank essentially every program they interviewed at, even if they think it won't be the greatest, because the old thought process of only ranking places you'd like to go to is over because of the last few years with scrambling difficulties. So programs that used to go unfilled will have more people matching into them instead of those canidates going unmatched and relying on the scramble. Last year there were only 2 OB spots in the scramble. I think there were 70 categorical surgical spots. I wouldn't be surprised if there were 0 in each of those specialties. You just watch.

That may be true. My school has been very very cautious with the advice this year b/c the scramble was so rough.

Last year there were only 5 open surgery slots according to the NRMP charting outcomes. This year may hit 0
 
I have the exact opposite prediction: this will be the worse year ever for scrambling. I know my school is advising students to rank essentially every program they interviewed at, even if they think it won't be the greatest, because the old thought process of only ranking places you'd like to go to is over because of the last few years with scrambling difficulties. So programs that used to go unfilled will have more people matching into them instead of those canidates going unmatched and relying on the scramble. Last year there were only 2 OB spots in the scramble. I think there were 70 categorical surgical spots. I wouldn't be surprised if there were 0 in each of those specialties. You just watch.

Does anyone how many anesthesia spots were available for scramble in last year's match? Thanks! :confused:

23 days and counting...:xf::xf:
 
Does anyone how many anesthesia spots were available for scramble in last year's match? Thanks! :confused:

23 days and counting...:xf::xf:


http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2009.pdf

Last year there were 733 PGY1 and 641 PGY2 spots for gas.. of the 733, there were 723 filled (10 spots free in 6 programs) and for the 641, 625 were filled (16 spots free in 7 programs).

There were only 90 IM prelim spots free, and only 40 transitional year prelims free... like 300 GS prelim spots... I wonder why...
 
http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2009.pdf

Last year there were 733 PGY1 and 641 PGY2 spots for gas.. of the 733, there were 723 filled (10 spots free in 6 programs) and for the 641, 625 were filled (16 spots free in 7 programs).

There were only 90 IM prelim spots free, and only 40 transitional year prelims free... like 300 GS prelim spots... I wonder why...


Thanks a bunch:love:
 
so it kind of looks like my senario did happen for anesthesia... this year there were 56 unfilled spots in anesthesia, compare that to other specialties of equal competitiveness and EM had 14 unfilled spots, Gen. Surgery had 2, Radiology (slightly tougher) had 6... Everyone I know personally that applied to anesthesia matched.. very interesting i guess it seems the competitiveness of anestheis has declined this year.
 
Radiology (slightly tougher) had 6...

Don't mean to be a douche, but I disagree that it's only slightly tougher. Average step 1 score is some 20 pts higher (~240) and about 1/3 of people applying in rads are AOA.
 
Don't mean to be a douche, but I disagree that it's only slightly tougher. Average step 1 score is some 20 pts higher (~240) and about 1/3 of people applying in rads are AOA.

rads is in a weird spot *between* em/gas and derm/uro/ent/etc......

yes, the scores in rads compare to uro or ent or whatever, but because of the massive number of rads spots, it's easier to get into. Most amgs with average rotation grades/evals and average scores(215-220ish) *will* match rads somewhere though, if they apply broadly enough. The statistics bear this out.

Most people with average rotation grades/evals and average scores *will not* match uro/derm/ent/etc....and most who want to dont even try. The statistics bear this out.

It's funny how people doing rads want to make it seem like rads is derm or uro or neurosurgery...it's not.

It's equally hilarious how gas people want to lump rads and gas together.

The reality is it's somewhere in between......
 
It's funny how people doing rads want to make it seem like rads is derm or uro or neurosurgery...it's not.

It's equally hilarious how gas people want to lump rads and gas together.

You're right, its not either of those directions, it is in the middle. Fact is, anesthesia is not a competitive specialty based solely on numbers alone. As I've said before, it isn't PM&R or FM, but it really isn't worth quaking in one's boots about.
 
yes, the scores in rads compare to uro or ent or whatever, but because of the massive number of rads spots, it's easier to get into. Most amgs with average rotation grades/evals and average scores(215-220ish) *will* match rads somewhere though, if they apply broadly enough. The statistics bear this out.

Most people with average rotation grades/evals and average scores *will not* match uro/derm/ent/etc....and most who want to dont even try. The statistics bear this out.
I agree with the above.

I wasn't implying that rads was in the same territory as derm/plastics with regards to competitiveness. It's not. The thing is, if you want to go to a good university program, you're not going to do that with a 215 and average grades unless you have some serious/shady connections.

Let's use Indiana as an example (a quality university program but by no means as competitive as the toughest programs). Last year, Indiana's incoming class had a step 1 average of ~ 255.

The best radiology programs are every bit as competitive as the best programs in any other specialty and regularly fill entire classes with people that have 260+/AOA/multiple first author pubs. I agree, however, that overall it's an easier match than the top tier specialties due to the number of spots.

In any event, I don't want to get into a penis measuring match. Anesthesiology is a good gig (and you'd lose anyway). ;)
 
so it kind of looks like my senario did happen for anesthesia... this year there were 56 unfilled spots in anesthesia, compare that to other specialties of equal competitiveness and EM had 14 unfilled spots, Gen. Surgery had 2, Radiology (slightly tougher) had 6... Everyone I know personally that applied to anesthesia matched.. very interesting i guess it seems the competitiveness of anestheis has declined this year.

I think my prediction was almost spot on... toughest year for match ever... cept Gas... dunno... don't care, I matched!
 
I think my prediction was almost spot on... toughest year for match ever... cept Gas... dunno... don't care, I matched!

You were right. I lose (except for anesthesia)
 
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