Doctor shortage = higher salaries?

[vmc303]

We've all heard about the looming shortage of physicians in America. The latest number I've heard is that by 2020, the shortage is going to be around 200,000 doctors or so. That's pretty incredible. Anyone want to speculate as to what this will mean for physician salaries in coming years? Normal laws of supply and demand should dictate that the salaries will go up bigtime, but medicine isn't exactly an entirely free market.

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[Law2Doc]

We've all heard about the looming shortage of physicians in America. The latest number I've heard is that by 2020, the shortage is going to be around 200,000 doctors or so. That's pretty incredible. Anyone want to speculate as to what this will mean for physician salaries in coming years? Normal laws of supply and demand should dictate that the salaries will go up bigtime, but medicine isn't exactly an entirely free market.

Not going to be drastically higher salaries, I suspect. Supply and demand only works if doctors are the only ones capable of providing "services". What will unfortunately happen (and is beginning to happen) is bigger roles for PAs and NPs, who are cheaper.

 

[Bap2qwrq7]

I dunno if the shortage is in physician numbers overall but more in terms of primcary care physicians. And even then a lot of the problem is the uneven distribution across the United States. I really don't think this shortage, even if it is a problem by 2020, will affect people choosing residencies as there will less residency slots for specialized fields and more slots for primary care fields. And those are lower paying so I don't really think salaries on a whole will fluctuate.

 

[Ross434]

We've all heard about the looming shortage of physicians in America. The latest number I've heard is that by 2020, the shortage is going to be around 200,000 doctors or so. That's pretty incredible. Anyone want to speculate as to what this will mean for physician salaries in coming years? Normal laws of supply and demand should dictate that the salaries will go up bigtime, but medicine isn't exactly an entirely free market.

Salaries may go up, but reimbursement probably wont. I know right now some large groups are offering salaries higher than market value to attract candidates to underserved areas, but this is simply because the presence of a doctor will net them more money (or customers, in the case of insurance). I think physician salaries will continue to increase at the same fast rate that we've seen in the past, which is based mostly off of technology, and not off of supply and demand. There wont be a shortage of specialists, just primary docs, which is going to be solved by increasing med school slots, and increasing primary care residency slots.

 

[lightnk102]

doctor shortage = more hours worked = lower quality of life for physicians = increased burnout rate

at least until supporting personnel is trained to pick up the slack.

no amount of salary increase is going to make up for all the things you miss at home when you're working too many hours.

 

[JAMMAN]

doctor shortage = more hours worked = lower quality of life for physicians = increased burnout rate

at least until supporting personnel is trained to pick up the slack.

no amount of salary increase is going to make up for all the things you miss at home when you're working too many hours.

It is too bad that many physicians and physicians in training think this way.
We must remember that medicine is a business and although we go into medicine to help others, hospitals and insurance companies look at the bottom line. I think that in general physicians underestimate there worth and settle for low ball pay.

I know my worth. I know that there is a national shortage for physicians in my specialty. I receive job offers two to three times each week. Some are private practice, some are academic. I also know that a study has shown that a physician in my specialty will generate $1.3-1.5 million dollars per year in revenue for a hospital. Do you think that I am going to accept a hospitals first low ball offer? Even if it is many times greater than what i made as an intern? Heck no!

 

[doc05]

most physicians aren't "salaried." so the normal laws of supply and demand don't really apply.

a physician shortage would mean more patients/physician --> possibly increased earnings due to more billable patients. BUT -- physicians in private practice work hard enough as it is, and it will be difficult to increase # billable patient hours.

The result would be increased utiliaztion of NP's, PA's, etc. And noone can really predict what will happen to reimburement rates.

 

[Biscuit799]

It is too bad that many physicians and physicians in training think this way.
We must remember that medicine is a business and although we go into medicine to help others, hospitals and insurance companies look at the bottom line. I think that in general physicians underestimate there worth and settle for low ball pay.

I know my worth. I know that there is a national shortage for physicians in my specialty. I receive job offers two to three times each week. Some are private practice, some are academic. I also know that a study has shown that a physician in my specialty will generate $1.3-1.5 million dollars per year in revenue for a hospital. Do you think that I am going to accept a hospitals first low ball offer? Even if it is many times greater than what i made as an intern? Heck no!

Very well said. I read an article in which a general surgeon stated that he made roughly $1.5 MILLION a year, and did no more than 7 operations a week. How? He doesn't accept any kind of insurance or medicare/medicaid. He lives in an affluent area and charges what the market will bear for his services. Conclusion? Physicians are getting screwed out of a LOT of money by businesspeople, and if doctors don't wake up and take notice, it'll be that way for a while. Now sure there are moral/ethical dillemas here, but why the double standard? Why can insurance and govn't take such huge bites of money, but if a doctor complains, then he/she's not "Altruistic" enough. I thought lawyers and politicians were supposed to be civil servants as well.

More onto the point of salary increases... basically there has been a physician shortage for quite a few years now, and physicians salaries have risen SLOWER than the average salary for an American has risen. Are doctors starving? Of course not, but while medical costs soar, trial attorneys, insurance corps, HMO's, and the government take huge bites out of every dime a doctor earns, so basically, no, doctors salaries will not substantially rise.

 

[calcrew14]

Absolutely, doctor shortage = higher salaries.....for PAs and NPs.

 

[medstyle]

Speaking to an older doc, he told me that he has confidence the younger generation will get their rightful compesation. His feeling is that older docs don't care enough to actually fix the system...they've spent enough time building a career, so they just want to patch a few fixes until they retire.

However, I think its clear that docs here care more about salary, and that will be represented in our future. I mean, just a year or two ago, sdn would kill you if you typed something about salary, but now, its pretty much agreed upon we want to make as much as we can while we do as much as we can to help the world.

Yeah, no matter what businesses have you believe, doctors have tremendous power. A little organization, and rates WILL go out. Some states, if you have the limit someone can sue you for in your bank, like 300k or so, allow you to not have malpractice. So, tort reform is a good way to protect docs.

And more and more doctors are charging patients just for the priveledge of having them for their doctor. Like, you pay 1500 a year just to have a doctor, not including fees for services. That is another way you can satisfy patients without killing yourself in the process.

I think the more and more i read about the politics of healthcare funding, how the public views doctors as incompetant, businesses treat doctors as exploitable commodities and so forth, i think i don't have any problem with charging as much as possible, forming unions and so forth.

Doctors should make as much as money as possible, just like everyone else. I think altruism went out the door when i realized how much crap i was in for in med school, how much bs i went through to get in, and how many divs who aren't fit to shine my shoes are just waiting to take advantage of me.

 

[medstyle]

PA's and NP's work for docs too. The only way their salaries are going up is if ours do too.

 

[calcrew14]

PA's and NP's work for docs too. The only way their salaries are going up is if ours do too.

Exactly,and a lot of positions for doctor, especially in primary care, may soon be replaced by PA's and NP's. I know of a patient who has been seen by PA's and NP's more and more often at his doctor's office. Two physical examinations ordered by a governmental agency are also performed (at other offices) by providers other than physicians. Looks like there is not going to be a demand for physicians as much as PA's or NP's. Regardless of the practice size, there may be need for only one doctor in the office. All prices and salaries go down along with the demand.

 

[calcrew14]

Believe it or not, physician's value quickly depreciates on the other end of the health care too. As a sick physician, anyone of you can even be taken care off by PA's or NP's. And that can happen anywhere including a top of the line national medical center.