I followed that post you referred me to and it was quite a lovely discussion between

@KnightDoc @Goro @LizzyM @gyngyn @EdgeTrimmer
I found this one chart from AAMC which I have attached which will shed further light into this question .

Here are the numbers:

No of applicants per year= 49 k

No of acceptances per year = 20.7 k

Acceptance percentage = 42%

This attached chart from AAMC clearly illustrates that first time applicants outnumber repeat applicants by 75% to 25%. So there is clearly a much higher attrition rate after rejection in each cycle than what was projected in that thread.

Theoretically assuming that the highest number of application cycles is 3 for applicants, and assuming that all applicants have a 42% acceptance in each cycle , (both of which assumptions could be wrong), here is the breakup

First time applicants : 100

Get accepted in the first cycle : 42

Remaining applicants : 58

This 58 applicants will have to be split up into five groups and assuming a linear regression analysis-- we already know that the number of applicants (split into remaining 2 cycles) will be about 34% of the above , so we have to project a 52% fallout after rejection with each cycle. Have to select 52% to allow the total number of applicants in the second and third cycle to match up to 34% of the first time applicants.

1. give up after the first cycle-52% of 58 =30

2. apply second cycle and get accepted--- 42% of the remaining 28= 12

3. apply second cycle get rejected and dont apply again----52% of 16= 8

4. apply third cycle and get accepted---42% of the remaining 8---3

5. apply third cycle and get rejected--5

Thus, you can come to a number of 42+12 +3= 57 % of all applicants from the first application cycle will eventually get in.

This analysis is obviously fraught with a lot of pitfalls. Three of these glaring ones are using a maximum of 3 application cycles, assuming applicants have a standard 42% acceptance with each cycle and assuming a 52% fallout after rejection with each cycle. OUT OF THESE 3 assumptions, the most important statistic that would help is knowing the acceptance rate for first time applicants which AAMC has that information, but somehow does not want to reveal.

If you assume that the acceptance rate for first time applicants is higher at 50%, and for reapplicants is 40%, then that will mean 50+10+3=63 % of all applicants from the first application cycle will get in.

We are still not any closer to knowing the answer to my other question which is--- are students applying straight from undergraduate college as likely to get accepted as students who have taken a gap year with similar statistics. Could not get any information for that question.