This is an extremely complex question that no one truly knows the answer to, but it's deserving of a complex answer.
It will quicken the pace of consolidation thus favoring the mega-hospital chains and academic behemoths. Small independent physician private practices are already feeling the crunch and don't have the reserve capital that these large corporations do to be able to absorb the damage
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My belief is that we will continue the trend of physicians becoming employees where 20-30 years ago the vast majority were practice owners. What does this mean for salaries? Well medicine IS a business and when you are an employee you will necessarily make less than what you would if you were an owner:
I think there is a common misconception from pre-meds, med students and even beyond where they believe there is some unspoken edict that "Family medicine = $250k/yr" and "Ortho = $600k/yr", as if somehow this is the de facto "worth" of those fields to society and are somehow guaranteed. They commonly neglect
why physicians in those fields have the median incomes that they do. Compensation is purely a practice's Revenue - Expenses (Profit) then divided by the owners. Clinical revenue depends entirely on billing. See more patients, bill more and bring in more revenue. This is obviously deeply nuanced with different visits or procedures bringing a higher reimbursement than others and various insurers reimbursing all over the board, with medicare and then medicaid being the lowest.** Owner physicians who understand this and maximize it to their advantage can make a lot of $$ regardless of specialty. It truly is possible to make double the above numbers IF someone has the business acumen to optimize payor bases, visit/procedure types, volume efficiency and minimize cost.
All of the above is important because it puts into context the salaries of employed physicians. Unlike the above where an owner could set their own hours and have a good amount of direct control over what they earn, employees are at the behest of the employer. If a hospital wants to offer $100k to fill a full time Orthopedic surgery position, they can sure try but will almost assuredly never fill it. Make no mistake, the hospitals (especially as they are increasingly run by non-physicians) are trying to pay employed physicians the absolute lowest that they can in order to adequately fill the position. They are in the business of maximizing shareholder/corporate earnings.
However, the fact that hospitals current can't offer offendingly low salaries is largely predicated on two things: the possibility of a physician going to work at the lucrative private practice in town, for much more and the supply/demand dynamic in the area. Theoretically, if private practice universally completely died and simultaneously we began training way, way more Orthopods than the demand calls for then truly an absurdly low number like $100k could genuinely be in play. If you are competing against 100 others for the same job, better to take it at a silly low rate than have no job at all. By no means do I think the above will happen, I am just using an extreme in order to make a point. What currently happens is if Private Practice A makes $X00 per year but a candidate wants to work as an employee for whatever reason (doesn't want to do the admin of owning a business, wants to "clock-in, clock-out", wants to do academics etc) then they could probably take a position just modestly below $X00 (say 30% or so) because it's a reasonably competitive offer.
**After the government sets a Medicare rate for a billable item, the insurance companies negotiate directly with the hospital or practice to determine what multiplier of each item they will reimburse for. Humana or United goes to a large hospital, who sees a lot of patients and has leverage in order to negotiate high reimbursement rates from the insurance company. Humana and United then also go to the small private practice with 3 physicians... but since they don't really need this small practice nearly as much to be in their network they can get away with paying much less, sometimes even just Medicare rates, so the EXACT SAME PROCEDURE gets paid out much less to the small private practice then to the huge hospital system. So hopefully you can see why it is massively advantageous from a financial perspective to have a gigantic practice. This has been driving incredible consolidation in the health care field over the past decade (I'm not going to get into the ACA; "Obamacare" since it's political but a lot of the policies from that set all this in motion). Hospital systems have been buying up independent hospitals, small private practices, crossing state lines etc. Academic hospitals have been doing the same and frequently operate hospitals under their name without any true education/academic component. Small practices band together to form multi-specialty private practices to survive but lots of mom and pop practices either fold or sell out and the next generation of physicians become employees because the decks are stacked against them to hangle a shingle to form a new practice and there just honestly are nowhere near the private practice opportunities in many fields for everyone.
This COVID pandemic has wounded already vulnerable private practices and megacorporations will be just as hungry to expand once volumes come up. Thus fewer ownership opportunities (more employed) and also less leverage in negotiating a salary for these employed positions. This is why I think pay will go down. Thankfully we aren't also flooding the market by rapidly expanding residency positions (well some, EM seems to be) so I think it will be a slight permanent dip (5-10%).
Sorry for the diatribe. Med School really, really needs to make Business of Medicine a mandatory course. I'm always baffled at how few students/residents understand how a physician gets paid. If you are a keen businessman you can augment a lot of this and make a lot more than your specialty median, but far too many just go with the mindset of "I don't care about the business side of things" and then end up getting hosed without even realizing it. Please take it upon yourselves to learn the business, it's a huge factor in your income.
TLDR: Predict salaries go down 5-10% as some private practices fold and more docs become employees