- Joined
- Mar 12, 2005
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it is unfortunate that "global warming" is the phrase that has proliferated.
"climate instability" would perhaps more accurately reflect what we are continuing to see, and provoke less eye-rolling when we see unexpected cold weather.
"climate instability" would perhaps more accurately reflect what we are continuing to see....
In relation to what? A 4+ billion year history of "climate instability"?
We humans. So egocentric. So adept at overstating our importance and impact. Like this is somehow "our" planet.
-copro
walking to the hospital today in mid-December 90 degree Southern California sun, burning sweat seeping through my short white-coat made me look forward to the next ice-age. winter is coming though, a week of exams and one cross-country plane ride away.
PS. nice pics. some of my earliest memories are of steering my dad's truck around in the snow before my feet could touch the pedals
Very well said as well.....please reference my LMFAO icon dudes prefacing the pics....
Eat, f*ck, and be merry. Life is short, my friends.
-copro
Ahhh. How refreshing. The exact mindset that has gotten us into the climate change, not to mention current economic crisis.
Ahhh. How refreshing. The exact mindset that has gotten us into the climate change, not to mention current economic crisis.
Ahhh. How refreshing. The exact mindset that has gotten us into the climate change, not to mention current economic crisis.
It's all a mirage my friend. Fear and consumption. That's how they keep us going. I generally disprove Michael Moore's tainted take on most things aside from its humorist perspective, but Marilyn Manson hit the nail on the head with that one.
-copro
Who's they?
Dude, ENSO?! Thats 7th grade earth science, so no need to google. Although it's widely accepted that a warming climate will effect El Nino (or ENSO if you want to be fancy) it's unknown to what degree. (Pun fully intended) Other oceanic oscillations may effect it as well, there is no evidence to suggest El Nino itself has a lasting effect on the earths climate.
Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two-week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation:
N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL
Where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations live.
This serious-looking equation gave SETI a serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses -- just so we're clear -- are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be "informed guesses." If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It's simply prejudice.
The Drake equation can have any value from "billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involves the creation of testable hypotheses. The Drake equation cannot be tested and therefore SETI is not science. SETI is unquestionably a religion. . . .
The fact that the Drake equation was not greeted with screams of outrage -- similar to the screams of outrage that greet each Creationist new claim, for example -- meant that now there was a crack in the door, a loosening of the definition of what constituted legitimate scientific procedure. And soon enough, pernicious garbage began to squeeze through the cracks. . . .
I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.
Let's be clear: The work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.
There is no such thing as consensus science. If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus.
Period. . . .
I would remind you to notice where the claim of consensus is invoked. Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E=mc2. Nobody says the consensus is that the sun is 93 million miles away. It would never occur to anyone to speak that way. . . .
To an outsider, the most significant innovation in the global warming controversy is the overt reliance that is being placed on models. Back in the days of nuclear winter, computer models were invoked to add weight to a conclusion: "These results are derived with the help of a computer model." But now large-scale computer models are seen as generating data in themselves. No longer are models judged by how well they reproduce data from the real world -- increasingly, models provide the data. As if they were themselves a reality. And indeed they are, when we are projecting forward. There can be no observational data about the year 2100. There are only model runs.
This fascination with computer models is something I understand very well. Richard Feynman called it a disease. I fear he is right. Because only if you spend a lot of time looking at a computer screen can you arrive at the complex point where the global warming debate now stands.
Nobody believes a weather prediction twelve hours ahead. Now we're asked to believe a prediction that goes out 100 years into the future? And make financial investments based on that prediction? Has everybody lost their minds?
So what harm is it to act now?
I don't know the answer. Nobody does. That's why its such a hot debate.
The crux of that discussion, and I agree that's all it was, is that we need to come up with a set of priorities, something that most are loathe to do. The fact is, with the current debate raging (and, yes, there still is a debate) on whether or not there is man-made global warming occurring and, if there is, what - if anything - can be done about it, it is currently not a realistic priority to spend vast amounts of money on, when there are so many more immediately pressing concerns, as you yourself adeptly point out.
-copro
Do you have children Cop?
If not, do you plan too?
And, whatever this planet turns into, we'll adapt. That's how Life (with a capital "L") works.
adapt? we aren't even adapting now, with a preponderance of evidence in favor of the negative impact of humans on the environment.
we all see you boarding your CORPORATE JET to fly home on. )[/quote
JJP:
You do not know many times we have sat waiting (with the APU running for hours) at FBO's for people who are concerned about "Global Warming"
They board GLEX, GV's, etc. - - - solo.
Cop,
I don't disagree with your view of how we are ruining our children one bit. And its not our childrens fault.
But I afraid you missed my point. I'm saying that if we don't start "helping" our environment now then we leave the burden to our children if we're lucky. If we are not so lucky there may be little left for our children to work with. If we don't set the example for our children now then we are that much further behind. I don't have all the answers, nobody does. But I have some beliefs and those are apparent now with my posts. I'm not a fear monger, altruist, etc. I'm just an open mind with some beliefs.
Start showing the youngsters how to be earth wise now and we all benefit. But the message in my post was dealing with, "what are we leaving our children with?"
Cop,
I don't disagree with your view of how we are ruining our children one bit. And its not our childrens fault.
But I afraid you missed my point. I'm saying that if we don't start "helping" our environment now then we leave the burden to our children if we're lucky. If we are not so lucky there may be little left for our children to work with. If we don't set the example for our children now then we are that much further behind. I don't have all the answers, nobody does. But I have some beliefs and those are apparent now with my posts. I'm not a fear monger, altruist, etc. I'm just an open mind with some beliefs.
Start showing the youngsters how to be earth wise now and we all benefit. But the message in my post was dealing with, "what are we leaving our children with?"
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/12/16/melting.ice/index.html
(CNN) -- Between 1.5 trillion and 2 trillion tons of ice in Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska have melted at an accelerating rate since 2003....
(snip)
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/12/18/vegas.snow/
Snow becomes the show in Las Vegas
By Ashley Fantz
CNN
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(CNN) -- There are some pretty unusual sites on the Las Vegas Strip. But snow on palm trees stole the show Thursday.
A group in awe of the snow gathers at the iconic Vegas welcome sign.![]()
more photos »
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The heaviest Arctic blast in nearly three decades has coated the normally sunny city.
Tourists and locals handed off cameras, taking turns snapping pictures for posterity. On the Strip, a couple holding two tall fruity drinks clutched each other to stay steady in the ice. The iconic "Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas" sign was dusted in white.
Business people who normally hop day flights between Las Vegas and California were seen in hotel lobbies scrambling to find an available room. The New York New York Hotel & Casino actually looked like the real New York in December.
"No work was getting done yesterday," said iReporter Jason Dinant, who works for a nightclub. "Everybody was like, 'It's snowing, it's snowing! Can we go outside?' "
He and his co-workers rushed out and stuck out their tongues to catch the flakes. His trip home was less fun -- a typically 15-minute drive took an hour. "But this is so cool, it doesn't bother me," he said.See iReporters' photos of the snow »![]()
Darryl and Maria Roberts' children, ages 8, 10 and 16, were ecstatic to build their first snowman.
"They had never seen snow," said their father, who contributed a video to iReport of the kids playing. "They made snow angels for a couple of hours."
"It was like, 'Whoa! I wanna go out and play in it right now,' " said 10-year-old Asia Roberts, happy to be experiencing what no child in Las Vegas has enjoyed in decades: a snow day off from school.Watch the children play in the snow »![]()
The snowstorm, caused by a low-pressure system, was the eighth worst ever recorded in Las Vegas. The Strip got close to 2 inches, and the outskirts of town received 6 inches, according to the National Weather Service. The city had a 2-inch snowfall in 2004.
The snow forced 8,000 customers to lose power Wednesday, but by Thursday morning, electricity had been restored, said Nevada Energy spokesman Adam Grant.
The storm brought more hassle, too. Those dreaming of a holiday weekend in California or Vegas will probably have to park it. Parts of Interstate 15, which links the two states, have been closed because of huge snow drifts, according to California Department of Transportation spokeswoman Terri Kasinga.
Cars very slowly inched along Vegas streets, which remained slushy and icy because the city has very few road-clearing machines.
Annette Miller lives in the southernmost part of the Las Vegas valley in a collection of neighborhoods that is home to thousands. She drove home from work thinking she could make it, but her Toyota Prius disagreed. The typically 15-minute trip took six hours, and when she finally arrived at her street, her Prius got stuck in the snow.
Her husband, also driving home from work in his Prius, got stuck nearby.
"Our whole neighborhood was like a MASH unit, everyone trying to push everyone's car to the side of the street," she said. "My only complaint is that I wanted to know from some government agency, anyone, whether it would have been smarter to stay off the roads. We didn't have that. I would have gotten a hotel room."
iReporter Nicolas Capra will be heading to work as a valet on the Strip later Thursday, though he knows he might not make much money.
"A lot of locals around here hate it," the Denver native said, chuckling. "You know, it's 'I didn't move to the desert to have this.' "
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At McCarran International Airport, which has no snow-clearing equipment, travelers camped in the terminals Wednesday night as 3.6 inches blanketed the tarmac. By Thursday afternoon, all flights had resumed and airlines were trying to rebook stranded passengers, according to spokesman Chris Jones.
The wintry weather also whipped California. There were at least 20 inches of snow in Wrightwood, 5 inches in the hills above Malibu and 6 inches or more in Palmdale, according to the Los Angeles Times.
We can do this all day, Arch. Until we agree upon such things as a global timeframe, what historical "expectations" actually should be, and other things such as whether or not we've been coming out of a mini ice age over the past 500 years, this doesn't prove anything. That's why it's pointless to argue this, point by point, on this forum... or anywhere else on the internet.
And, that's the point.
Jury is out.
The alarmism is mainly politically, not scientifically, driven.
And, it should be for anyone who calls himself/herself a true scientist (and, if you actually read the reports and not just the media spin, you'll see that many, if not most, scientists engaged in this debate are very circumspect and willing to admit that we need more data).
-copro
We can do this all day, Arch. Until we agree upon such things as a global timeframe, what historical "expectations" actually should be, and other things such as whether or not we've been coming out of a mini ice age over the past 500 years, this doesn't prove anything. That's why it's pointless to argue this, point by point, on this forum... or anywhere else on the internet.
And, that's the point.
Jury is out.
The alarmism is mainly politically, not scientifically, driven.
And, it should be for anyone who calls himself/herself a true scientist (and, if you actually read the reports and not just the media spin, you'll see that many, if not most, scientists engaged in this debate are very circumspect and willing to admit that we need more data).
-copro
We can do this all day, Arch. Until we agree upon such things as a global timeframe, what historical "expectations" actually should be, and other things such as whether or not we've been coming out of a mini ice age over the past 500 years, this doesn't prove anything. That's why it's pointless to argue this, point by point, on this forum... or anywhere else on the internet.
-copro
I am not arguing. I simply posted a relevant article from the web. Those NASA boys are a lot smarter than my stupid old redneck self. That is unless it's the ones that covered up the whole moon landing thing.
What's the benefit to a politician? We all know they don't do anything without some personal gain.