In my experience people either want data-free reassurance or they want data-based perspective. Here's both, and a reality check.
Reassurance: As long as it's September, it's WAY too early to draw ANY conclusions whatsoever. Unfortunately you have to be patient. Programs that wait for MSPEs are waiting for MSPEs. Some programs choose to not wait for MSPEs in order to get in early with extremely compelling candidates; do not use their experiences as a ruler or a mirror. If you feel like you are a weak candidate, then review the last 10 years of posts here to get some ideas for what you can do over the next 4 months, such as contacting programs mid-season to take advantage of cancellations. Regardless, unless you are in massive pathological denial about your chances, you WILL have the delicious experience of your first invite. Consider planning for the experience, such as having a song ready to dance to etc. Call/email/text a significant mentor or parent or preceptor and say THANK YOU. Those of your med school classmates who are not being gracious, discreet, supportive and publicly calm after they start getting invites are a-holes and you are right to judge them harshly; OBVIOUSLY, be a good person after you start getting invites.
Data-based perspective: There were 557 FM residencies in NRMP last year. 20 programs are listed in this very very VERY low traffic SDN thread. 10% of FM residencies do not fill in the match. Medium-popularity residencies got at least 500 apps on Saturday. Most programs have a protocol for evaluating each app that can't be automated; the time required for human eyes to find relevant data (open website, click things, scroll, use tired middle-aged eyes to read data that is judged by tired middle-aged human brain, mark app as invite-now vs hold vs no) is a minutes-long task. Then it's another minutes-long task to issue the interview invite (staff member receives list of applicants to contact, processes that list with mail merge or individual email or individual phone call or other). If a program has 2 people with one hour per day (generous) for this task, that program is going through 50-100 apps per day. There is no data to predict whether your app that went out on Saturday is in the first 50-100 apps or the last 50-100 apps. FM is one of the specialties that gets flooded with poorly competitive apps, which slows everything down for everybody. Your pretty-good app is in line behind an FMG with several Step 1 attempts and some red flags who applied to 500 programs.
Reality check: FM residency program directors did not clear their calendars to get through all of the apps as fast as possible, because they have other priorities such as patient care, kids starting school, current residents in crisis, life. Your match experience is a once-in-a-lifetime massively-high-stakes SERIOUSLY BIG FAT DEAL but for people who work at residencies it's ho-hum interview season AGAIN. Similarly to med school apps, the cost to a residency of losing one good candidate is infinitesimally small because there are ridiculous boatloads of apps thus there is no high-stakes quality assurance pass to make sure a gem isn't lost. Infinite gems, lots of residencies, no individual consequences to a residency for improperly handling an app.
Please believe me that you WILL survive the waiting, that there's no career difference in getting your 100% perfect residency choice vs. your 90% perfect residency choice, and that forming resentments about the match process is an utter waste of time.
Good luck to all.
