When I spoke to a woman at GW recently regarding why it was taking so long for them to make a decision on my application (they said it would take 10 weeks post-interview, it's now been 12) she said they received "far more applications than they anticipated" this year. Is this the trend at other schools too? Does anyone have any idea why there might be this upward trend in the number of med school applicants this year after 8+ years of a downward trend?
Far more applicants this year?
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I know that the internet bust led to a large increase in the number of applicants to Law and Business schools 2 years ago, but I don't see how this would have led to an increase in the number of med school applicants this year.
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No, there were 33,625 applicants to med school this year, a 3.5% decrease from last year, which as at an all time low at least over the last 10 years. You are applying at one of the easiest years to get into med school.
(but yes, the applicants usually do reflect the economy, but there is some lag time)
mike
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For what it's worth, every MSTP director has been telling me MSTP applications have been up in a big way this year with a generally increased quality of students. CWRU's number of MSTP applications did something like double from last year to this year. That may have alot to do with their online secondary, but they really have no clue how to explain it and are struggling a bit to deal with it.
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I don't have any proof or a link regarding this, but the dean at UIC told us at the interview that the total applicant pool (AMCAS applications only) had risen this year by 20%. I wish I had something to verify this and I've been looking for some after I heard this, but I have no reason to believe that this dean was giving out misinformation.
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That number is people that applied for admission to the 2002 entering class, not people applying this year for the 2003 entering class.
I got this info from a press release on the AAMC webpage:
"Based on the number of individuals who took the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) in 2002 and initial applications to date, the number of medical school applicants is projected to increase by 4 to 6 percent in 2003."
Here is a link to the article:
AAMC Applicant Data Story
That 4 to 6 percent could be higher if more "new" applicants applied later in the AMCAS submission timeline.
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Negative. Re-read the story. Says people applying in "2003" which would be the matriculating class of 2004. The data on the AAMC.org web site I quoted were "applications in year x," so my original point holds. Applying in 2003 is going to be harder, but in 2002 it's the easiest it's been in 10 years (at least) because there's 10 years of data on the web site.
mike
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Unfortunately, the dean is probably telling the truth.🙁 I also was told that GWU had received more applications than normal when I interviewed there. They did not go into exact numbers though.
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I think the article is very unclear about exactly which year's applicants they are talking about. The article does say in the first paragraph "...the number of medical school applicants is projected to increase by 4 to 6 percent in 2003"
In the last paragraph, it says "...the projected increase for 2003 is based on ... number of people who took the MCAT this year in preparation for admission next year." Since the article is dated October of 2002 it must refer to people applying to matriculate in 2003 who took the MCAT in 2002.
In any case, I think it could have been written much more clearly.
ayj
In the last paragraph, it says "...the projected increase for 2003 is based on ... number of people who took the MCAT this year in preparation for admission next year." Since the article is dated October of 2002 it must refer to people applying to matriculate in 2003 who took the MCAT in 2002.
In any case, I think it could have been written much more clearly.
ayj
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Perhaps even though overall applicant numbers are down this year, the actual number of schools people are applying to is on the rise? For instance, whereas last year, the average person applied to 6 schools, maybe this year the average person is applying to 10? I just made up those numbers... but it would make sense that even if the actual number of people wanting to get in is down, they could be overwhelming the adcoms by applying to lots and lots of schools.
questions? comments? discussion for the good of the order?
Scott😛
questions? comments? discussion for the good of the order?
Scott😛
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Whatfun is right. That article is referring to those of us applying this year. They just consider it applying in/for 2003, even though we all know that all are applying was done in 2002. I say this because their data is based on increased numbers taking the MCAT in 2002 and initial application figures increasing through October. No one has applied yet for the 2004 class, so this article is referring to numbers being up for this year.
"Washington, D.C., October 30, 2002 - While almost 34,000 people applied to U.S. medical schools in 2002-continuing a six-year decline-preliminary data for 2003 released today by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) indicate that this decline may be coming to an end. Based on the number of individuals who took the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) in 2002 and initial applications to date, the number of medical school applicants is projected to increase by 4 to 6 percent in 2003. "
http://www.aamc.org/newsroom/pressrel/2002/021030.htm
I agree that the article could have been written better, but it is clear that the numbers of people applying increased this year.
"Washington, D.C., October 30, 2002 - While almost 34,000 people applied to U.S. medical schools in 2002-continuing a six-year decline-preliminary data for 2003 released today by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) indicate that this decline may be coming to an end. Based on the number of individuals who took the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) in 2002 and initial applications to date, the number of medical school applicants is projected to increase by 4 to 6 percent in 2003. "
http://www.aamc.org/newsroom/pressrel/2002/021030.htm
I agree that the article could have been written better, but it is clear that the numbers of people applying increased this year.
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Just to reiterate:
No, the increase is referring to the matriculating class of 2003. The data that you have sited reflects the matriculating class of 2002.
The AAMC always refers to the application and matriculation years as one in the same. So, when they say "While almost 34,000 people applied to U.S. medical schools in 2002" they are referring to the matriculating class of 2002.
DALA
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As DALABROKA said, they refer to the year of matriculation when talking about applicant data - makes it confusing when you first read it.
Maybe it wouldn't be so confusing if we didn't have an application process that was a year long! One of my friends is applying to grad schools for microbiology. Submitted her apps mid-December and already has all her interviews lined up.
I wish it was that easy!
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Back in the early part of 2002 just before starting my app process our premed advisor told us when we had our initial meeting with her to expect the downward trends to continue...
Just because the economy has been bad the last year or two doesn't mean everyone and their brother is going to pick up the $1000 process of applying for a few reasons:
The premed track is a 4-year process, not one that can simply be picked up and I'd assume (dangerously) that a large portion of the application numbers we see are traditional pathway students.
So there might be a slight shift happening, say more non-traditional applicants with the qualifications looking to escape the economy but even at my undergrad I don't see any spikes or the interest in premed like there was when I came in...
Another factor I think its very pertinent to consider is the fact that medicine hasn't exactly been getting a good economic review itself lately. Its hard to look in any newpaper without seeing a story about physicians in some state fighting for money from medicare/aid or malpractice problems. Lets be honest, we don't go into this profession for money (thats death) but no one wants to work as hard as we do to get that MD or DO after our name only to have to beg, cheat and steal for the money we need just to survive.
food for thought, my bet is we will see another 3 or so percent decline in rates this year. I doubt the economy had that much effect on the traditional pool and minimal effect on non-traditionals.
Just because the economy has been bad the last year or two doesn't mean everyone and their brother is going to pick up the $1000 process of applying for a few reasons:
The premed track is a 4-year process, not one that can simply be picked up and I'd assume (dangerously) that a large portion of the application numbers we see are traditional pathway students.
So there might be a slight shift happening, say more non-traditional applicants with the qualifications looking to escape the economy but even at my undergrad I don't see any spikes or the interest in premed like there was when I came in...
Another factor I think its very pertinent to consider is the fact that medicine hasn't exactly been getting a good economic review itself lately. Its hard to look in any newpaper without seeing a story about physicians in some state fighting for money from medicare/aid or malpractice problems. Lets be honest, we don't go into this profession for money (thats death) but no one wants to work as hard as we do to get that MD or DO after our name only to have to beg, cheat and steal for the money we need just to survive.
food for thought, my bet is we will see another 3 or so percent decline in rates this year. I doubt the economy had that much effect on the traditional pool and minimal effect on non-traditionals.
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20% increase make no sense. 4-6% is reasonable and if that is an increase from last years numbers which was like an all time low, then really there's nothing to be alarmed about. mikecwru is right about the "lag time" because its not like some unemplyed engineer can suddenly decide to go to med school because of the economy. It takes 2-3 years of preparation (taking the prereqs, volunteering, studying for mcat) and so I don't think we are going to see any huge increases in applicant pool this year.
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actually last year's number of applicants is not an all-time low, it's the lowest in the last 7 or 8 years, but i believe there were like 20,000 applicants sometime in the 80's or early 90's, dunno for sure.
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I never said it was at an all time low, just a low for the 10 years that the data was posted. The web site that shows the ten years of data was unclear about matriculating/applying. The article, although I now agree, is also unclear when you skim through it. Regardless, the # of applicants THIS year was just a couple of hundred above last year, so the point still stands, it's a relatively easy year to get into med school.
Also, you can't really judge GPAs because I suspect that even with a couple thousand people difference nationally vs previous years, you still have the same breakdown of schools, and you still have lots of 4.0 students. I wouldn't trust a GPA avg unless I had median, mode, and standard dev.
My point was not to get into a pissing contest about the app year, but to show it's relatively easy to get into med school now and it's going to get worse from now on with the economy being ****tier.
And it's going to sound like a prick statement, but it shows that the applicant pool is down in the first year class. Sure, you'll have superstars in all classes, but on average, I'd say that the current first year class at my school is having a little more trouble grasping a class I teach vs. the last two years. Now, I may be a crappy teacher, but I've helped lots in the past, and I know I haven't gotten WORSE. Motivation also seems to be a problem with several students, which is something I haven't encountered before in the last two years.
mike
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Less applicants doesn't necessarily mean lower quality students. It could just mean that there's less "qualified" applicants who get rejected.
X
X
Mike
Again, I think people have mentioned this, but the less number of applicants does not mean its any easier. There are still the same number of spots open, first of all, second the means and the quality of students has been increasing those years that the # of applicants were going down. This means that it is progressively getting harder to get into medical school (even if you are relatively speaking).
You can look at the median, mode, deviations, etc., but the GPA averages will be about equivalent for comparison purposes due to the large sample size. Sure the number of people applying next year will increase but that won't make it harder to get into med school, it will be the fact that the top 16,000 people will be more competitive (better MCAT or GPA's).
X
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No, I don't buy that. If you throw 3000 extra people of varying numbers in there, that makes it more likely that there will be an "indentical" you on paper, thus making it more of a draw on some nebulous item, making it less likely that you'll get picked. I think your assumption is that the same 16,000 would be accepted regardless, which is not true, because a good economy pulls some of the best and the brightest out of each applicant pool. I don't understand how you can't say that having more people applying makes it harder to get in ?!?!?!
I think the GPA will stay put because of the large number of 4.0 outliers pulling it that way. How do you justify that the mean and the "quality" of students is increasing?
And observation-wise, in my opinion, the current first years are overall a little bit weaker than my class was as a whole. I say this via my observations in personally teaching, and the trends of test scores in med school when compared to previous years.
I'm guessing you're a pre-med or pre-clinical med student. Don't take offense... just because I said overall weaker doesn't mean everyone is piss-poor.
mike
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Ofcourse thats a prick statement! Couldnt you have slapped us harder?!
The administration says our class is comparable with any other class before us. They compared us test for test, and I guess that holds more credibility than your theories.
Also, the problem with saying that its easier to get in would also mean you can get in with lower stats. From what i've noticed, statistics have only gone up. So it seems those who did not apply were not as motivated (and perhaps qualified) to apply in the first place.
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I don't know about applicants, but the non-trad matriculants are growing. These are exactly the people who would join the applicant pool in rough economic times. Also, pre-meds who planned to work for a few years before med school have less of an incentive to do so. Med school application requires more preparation than most grad/prof schools, so the response to the economy will be slower and smaller than law, business, or grad school, but it definitely responds.
