For class of 2015+: Applicant rates will go DOWN

[salemstein]

We all know this HC reform bill passed. Some analysts say it will slash doc salaries by as much as 20-25%. There are two reasons why this could happen: 1) weeds out people who become a doc for the money or 2) med school will cost too much in terms of debt repayments. There may be other reasons, but shouldn't be too much of an influence. Now what are your predictions on how much the applicant pool will get trimmed, if at all?

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[Drrrrrr. Celty]

*headdesk*
I doubt there will be a major decrease. Why? Because medicine is protected from the recession and people realize this. So as long as the economic times are hard, medicine's applicant rates will go up.. However if we're out of it by lets say 2013.. we can more then likely say that if medical school costs aren't reduced the applicant class size will have a negative rebound.

 

[IndianVercetti]

Why is medicine considered this HUGE academic sacrifice? It's a lot of work, yes, but far from torture. Medicine offers incredible job security, and steady income for almost one's entire life.

It's an extremely safe career, and a lot of people like that aspect.

 

[teenmachinery1]

We all know this HC reform bill passed. Some analysts say it will slash doc salaries by as much as 20-25%. There are two reasons why this could happen: 1) weeds out people who become a doc for the money or 2) med school will cost too much in terms of debt repayments. There may be other reasons, but shouldn't be too much of an influence. Now what are your predictions on how much the applicant pool will get trimmed, if at all?

sources please you effing *****

 

[Parts Unknown]

Some analysts say it will slash doc salaries by as much as 20-25%.

Troll.

 

[armybound]

people in med school don't even have a grasp on the bill, I doubt applicants will know any better

 

[missbones]

people in med school don't even have a grasp on the bill, I doubt applicants will know any better

 

[RogueUnicorn]

i have a hard time grasping my nose

 

[tncekm]

Why is medicine considered this HUGE academic sacrifice? It's a lot of work, yes, but far from torture. Medicine offers incredible job security, and steady income for almost one's entire life.

It's an extremely safe career, and a lot of people like that aspect.

Wait until you've done it. Most people do think it's a large sacrifice. There are a few, however, who don't, or they don't care so long as they can boost their ego a bit with those fancy "MD" initials after their name.

 

[MedMan25]

*headdesk*
I doubt there will be a major decrease. Why? Because medicine is protected from the recession and people realize this. So as long as the economic times are hard, medicine's applicant rates will go up.. However if we're out of it by lets say 2013.. we can more then likely say that if medical school costs aren't reduced the applicant class size will have a negative rebound.

Medicine is not protected from the recession. Who told you this? Just because people still get sick during a recession doesn't mean doctors are still going to get paid during a recession.

 

[TooMuchResearch]

First time posters do not get their own inflammatory threads (sorry if my first post was a new thread...can't remember).

:troll:

Edit: Nope, my first post was not a new thread. Hurray.

 

[Geekchick921]

Troll.

But fine with me. Less competition.

 

[Old Grunt]

people in med school don't even have a grasp on the bill, I doubt applicants will know any better

I don't think anyone has a grasp on the bill. I just got off rotation and have been surrounded by residents and attendings for the past two months, to include when the bill passed, and didn't hear anyone really say anything about it.

Certainly not the histrionics that we have observed here.

I don't think that's indicative of anything other than the fact that nobody really knows how this is going to affect healthcare.

 

[mercy82]

We all know this HC reform bill passed. Some analysts say it will slash doc salaries by as much as 20-25%. There are two reasons why this could happen: 1) weeds out people who become a doc for the money or 2) med school will cost too much in terms of debt repayments. There may be other reasons, but shouldn't be too much of an influence. Now what are your predictions on how much the applicant pool will get trimmed, if at all?

Please state how you think Doctors' salaries will be affected by the health care reform?

 

[Old Grunt]

Why is medicine considered this HUGE academic sacrifice? It's a lot of work, yes, but far from torture. Medicine offers incredible job security, and steady income for almost one's entire life.

It's an extremely safe career, and a lot of people like that aspect.

Anything worth doing in life is hard. But, I don't disagree with you. Most professions are hard in their own right. The bottom line is that you have to work to get to a degree of competence and you can't fake your way through it. That's why it's a professional degree.

 

[mercy82]

Medicine is not protected from the recession. Who told you this? Just because people still get sick during a recession doesn't mean doctors are still going to get paid during a recession.

In some ways there is some truth to the statement doctors will be protected from the recession. During the recession you heard about cuts in the financial industry, teachers etc. But you will never hear Doctors being laid off. In that sense theres some level of protection.

 

[MedMan25]

In some ways there is some truth to the statement doctors will be protected from the recession. During the recession you heard about cuts in the financial industry, teachers etc. But you will never hear Doctors being laid off. In that sense theres some level of protection.

I agree. There are some though who think that doctors aren't at all affected by economic hardship. They may not have to worry about losing their jobs like you said but a recession has its effects on all professions, doctors included.

 

[tncekm]

In some ways there is some truth to the statement doctors will be protected from the recession. During the recession you heard about cuts in the financial industry, teachers etc. But you will never hear Doctors being laid off. In that sense theres some level of protection.

Nope, we'll never be laid off. We'll just be expected to work for less, unlike the public unions who are immune to the economy so long as they provide money and votes to the right people. *sigh* You can feel great about yourself for earning that MD one day, but the reality is you're a minority that nobody cares about (unless they're sick), and the real security is in numbers and votes. Be a good sheep, vote yourself some entitlements, and voila, happy life.

 

[Cleavername]

people in med school don't even have a grasp on the bill, I doubt applicants will know any better

no one other than the people in the big offices have any real grasp on the health bill. u can say that u do, but i doubt i believe u have read thro all 2400ish pages of it in like 12 font.

 

[tncekm]

no one other than the people in the big offices have any real grasp on the health bill. u can say that u do, but i doubt i believe u have read thro all 2400ish pages of it in like 12 font.

Yep, and big business is already cutting jobs.

 

[Cleavername]

Yep, and big business is already cutting jobs.

heh, back on topic. i hope the supreme court find this bill to be unconstitutional. i mean this bill does force ALL insurance companies across america to do something against their will. i hardly care if its ethnical or not, it just is unconstitutional.

 

[Parts Unknown]

no one other than the people in the big offices have any real grasp on the health bill. u can say that u do, but i doubt i believe u have read thro all 2400ish pages of it in like 12 font.

It's in double spaced 14 point De Vinne Italic, actually.

Out of sheer curiosity I randomly selected a page (863) and did a word count: 128.

 

[specter]

heh, back on topic. i hope the supreme court find this bill to be unconstitutional. i mean this bill does force ALL insurance companies across america to do something against their will. i hardly care if its ethnical or not, it just is unconstitutional.

correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the regulations being imposed on insurance companies is where we get the constitutionality argument from. all sorts of government-enforced regulation makes businesses do things that they don't want to do...this is no different. I think we should also note that forcing insurance companies to accept patients with pre-existing conditions is one aspect of the bill that even those of us on the right agree with. We can question the constitutionality of forcing everyone to buy insurance, but even then, I'm not sure that's where I have my problems with the bill, and I don't think it will really yield any results in the courts.

But back on topic...while I think it's possible the bill will scare away some applicants...I still think the medical field will retain its attractiveness because economic growth will be sluggish going forward, and job opportunities in previously lucrative areas (i.e. the low-hanging fruit) will probably be less easily available. You may be asked to work for less, but everyone else will also be taking a haircut, particularly when you have the left in power with "social justice" in mind.

Bottom line...while I view the bill as a negative for doctors, I think the pessimism is overdone. You'll still have steady income flow and you'll still get to do something you're interested in.

 

[Cleavername]

correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the regulations being imposed on insurance companies is where we get the constitutionality argument from. all sorts of government-enforced regulation makes businesses do things that they don't want to do...this is no different. I think we should also note that forcing insurance companies to accept patients with pre-existing conditions is one aspect of the bill that even those of us on the right agree with. We can question the constitutionality of forcing everyone to buy insurance, but even then, I'm not sure that's where I have my problems with the bill, and I don't think it will really yield any results in the courts.

But back on topic...while I think it's possible the bill will scare away some applicants...I still think the medical field will retain its attractiveness because economic growth will be sluggish going forward, and job opportunities in previously lucrative areas (i.e. the low-hanging fruit) will probably be less easily available. You may be asked to work for less, but everyone else will also be taking a haircut, particularly when you have the left in power with "social justice" in mind.

Bottom line...while I view the bill as a negative for doctors, I think the pessimism is overdone. You'll still have steady income flow and you'll still get to do something you're interested in.

oh yea, surely the government does force some business do something, but those laws have atleast passed through the state government where they are going to be tested for constitutionality. like some states have legal prostitution, different states have different regulation on different things. this is what makes american, united STATES of america, its not united nation of america. this federal healthcare bill have not, i personally hope it gets crushed and burned.

the pre-existing conditions is a gamble. ur gambling receiving a lower quality of healthcare, since reinburstment going to doctors are decreasing and patient numbers increasing, versus if you do happend to get a bad disease, I.E diabeties, you can get healthcare. this can be good or bad depends on your situation, with no real experiments done on this, we cannot for sure conclude that the average people will most likely benefit or be damaged by this.

thus over all, to offend the constitution or to give healthcare to more people, thats the situation, as i see it. do keep in mind the founding fathers wrote this for the people's protection from the government. I.E freedom of speech, so that news agencies can bash on the government with everything they do in form of words .

 

[specter]

oh yea, surely the government does force some business do something, but those laws have atleast passed through the state government where they are going to be tested for constitutionality. like some states have legal prostitution, different states have different regulation on different things. this is what makes american, united STATES of america, its not united nation of america. this federal healthcare bill have not, i personally hope it gets crushed and burned.

the pre-existing conditions is a gamble. ur gambling receiving a lower quality of healthcare, since reinburstment going to doctors are decreasing and patient numbers increasing, versus if you do happend to get a bad disease, I.E diabeties, you can get healthcare. this can be good or bad depends on your situation, with no real experiments done on this, we cannot for sure conclude that the average people will most likely benefit or be damaged by this.

thus over all, to offend the constitution or to give healthcare to more people, thats the situation, as i see it. do keep in mind the founding fathers wrote this for the people's protection from the government. I.E freedom of speech, so that news agencies can bash on the government with everything they do in form of words .

interesting points, and I can see how there are grounds for constitutional debate on the various pieces of the bill. even then, I doubt the courts will rule against it. the only realistic way I see it getting killed is if we vote out the dems from here until 2014...but by then we will have already set in motion the higher taxes which I view as a huge negative to an economy still trying to find its footing.

 

[Parts Unknown]

like some states have legal prostitution, different states have different regulation on different things. this is what makes american, united STATES of america, its not united nation of america. this federal healthcare bill have not, i personally hope it gets crushed and burned. .

I would suggest you read and internalize a number of enlightening writings on this topic. Perhaps one of the briefest and clearest is Without Merit, which happens to be penned by Eliot Spitzer (a man who knows a thing or two about the law, in addition to prostitution).

In case you have any problems reading it, here is the key:
you = u
your = ur
you're = ur
you are = ur

 

[Cleavername]

I would suggest you read and internalize a number of enlightening writings on this topic. Perhaps one of the briefest and clearest is Without Merit, which happens to be penned by Eliot Spitzer (a man who knows a thing or two about the law, in addition to prostitution).

In case you have any problems reading it, here is the key:
you = u
your = ur
you're = ur
you are = ur

so u have nothing to add nor contribute to this topic besides the fact that u care about spelling on the internet?

lol ever watch Cathouse?

oh wait its just neveda lol. WELL I HOPE THERE ARE MORE THAT LEGALIZE THAT, @&*# WEED.

 

[specter]

I would suggest you read and internalize a number of enlightening writings on this topic. Perhaps one of the briefest and clearest is Without Merit, which happens to be penned by Eliot Spitzer (a man who knows a thing or two about the law, in addition to prostitution).

In case you have any problems reading it, here is the key:
you = u
your = ur
you're = ur
you are = ur

Parts Unknown, you have been an outspoken proponent of the reform bill, and a lot of your arguments are certainly well-researched. I am curious what you predict the general impact will be on the medical profession with regards to both practice and compensation.

 

[Cleavername]

oops lol i thought "Without merit" was just part of ur sentence as a word, so it made no sense thus i sort of attacked u. now that i have read it, i must say this bill just got more interesting.

notice i still am using U and UR cause spelling on the internet is seriouse business.

 

[morning]

It's in double spaced 14 point De Vinne Italic, actually.

Out of sheer curiosity I randomly selected a page (863) and did a word count: 128.

I've read large chunks and a lot of it is stuff like "the definition of a residency is as defined in section 14 segment 4..."

It's not like it's a thousand pages of new laws. It's written in legalese. I'm sorry that anti-intellectualism is so prevalent in America today (even among med school hopefuls?) that we want even comprehensive healthcare legislation to be written by the author of Hooked On Phonics.

 

[BrokenDisco]

Why is medicine considered this HUGE academic sacrifice? It's a lot of work, yes, but far from torture. Medicine offers incredible job security, and steady income for almost one's entire life.

It's an extremely safe career, and a lot of people like that aspect.

I agree. Med school students just want the rest of the population's pity. Please you make so much money once youre done with residency and you're doing what you love right so isn't it worth the sacrifice. Other majors (pHds, engineers, lawyers) have to do just as much work if not MORE to make not even half the amount of money and you're constantly worried about getting laid off.

 

[johncalvin]

people in med school don't even have a grasp on the bill, I doubt applicants will know any better

Medical school = lots and lots of studying, and hopefully doing something fun during down-time.

Me = lots of downtime before I begin this August, so I've been following this a lot more closely than medical students can afford to.

Having said that, I really don't know much about the bill either, mostly because the bill calls for HHS regulations which are yet to be built.

 

[Old Grunt]

I've read large chunks and a lot of it is stuff like "the definition of a residency is as defined in section 14 segment 4..."

It's not like it's a thousand pages of new laws. It's written in legalese. I'm sorry that anti-intellectualism is so prevalent in America today (even among med school hopefuls?) that we want even comprehensive healthcare legislation to be written by the author of Hooked On Phonics.

That's why I stated I am not going to bother to read it. I know I could read it and still not comprehend what's going on.

Kind of like the Patriot Act or Robbin's and Coltran's Pathological Basis Of Disease.

That's why the whole "have you even read the bill" canard is so lame.

 

[Old Grunt]

I agree. Med school students just want the rest of the population's pity. Please you make so much money once youre done with residency and you're doing what you love right so isn't it worth the sacrifice. Other majors (pHds, engineers, lawyers) have to do just as much work if not MORE to make not even half the amount of money and you're constantly worried about getting laid off.

I think you missed his point. He wasn't saying that it wasn't a sacrifice. He said people tend to embellish a little.

 

[Cleavername]

today i talked to the human resource manger personel of the hospital i am currently volunteering for, she said that this 21% cut doest come straight out of doctors pockets, it doest mean exactly it would cut 21% of every one, it just mean that an entire hospital receive 21% less, how the cuts are going to work out is depended on solely the hospital. altho they can technically cut 21% across the board or even more on physician compensation.

 

[plsfoldthx]

heh, back on topic. i hope the supreme court find this bill to be unconstitutional. i mean this bill does force ALL insurance companies across america to do something against their will. i hardly care if its ethnical or not, it just is unconstitutional.

In california drivers are forced to buy car insurance. Mitt Romney also did something similar in his state when he was governor... he forced everyone to buy health insurance. Also the constitutionality is debatable as the commerce clause of the 10th ammendment clearly states that the federal government can impose actions to regulate commerce.

 

[tncekm]

today i talked to the human resource manger personel of the hospital i am currently volunteering for, she said that this 21% cut doest come straight out of doctors pockets, it doest mean exactly it would cut 21% of every one, it just mean that an entire hospital receive 21% less, how the cuts are going to work out is depended on solely the hospital. altho they can technically cut 21% across the board or even more on physician compensation.

Well, you can be assured that administrators won't give themselves pay cuts. And, nursing unions won't take cuts easily. That leaves physicians...

 

[theslowclap]

I don't know much about this subject, so this may be a stupid question.

Why don't doctor have some type of representation? If nurses can unionize, then why can't doctors do something similar to voice their concerns? I think this pay cut will affect physicians, but not to the extent that many fear. If things get really ugly (like doctors going into debt and not breaking even), I would guess there would be some type of outcry from this group of intelligent people. The thing about laws is that they are socially constructed.

 

[link2swim06]

I don't know much about this subject, so this may be a stupid question.

Why don't doctor have some type of representation? If nurses can unionize, then why can't doctors do something similar to voice their concerns? I think this pay cut will affect physicians, but not to the extent that many fear. If things get really ugly (like doctors going into debt and not breaking even), I would guess there would be some type of outcry from this group of intelligent people. The thing about laws is that they are socially constructed.

This will not happen in our lifetime....worse case scenario we will make just a little more than engineers after loan repayment (which imho will not happen).

 

[specter]

This will not happen in our lifetime....worse case scenario we will make just a little more than engineers after loan repayment (which imho will not happen).

I don't think it will happen either. Not to be elitist, but not everyone can be a doctor, given there is a certain level of intellect and commitment required. If it no longer becomes financially prudent, the medical field would lose quite a bit of talent, which would be reflected in lower quality of care. I don't think that's a sacrifice this country is willing to make. Reduced compensation going forward? probably. Increased workload? probably. Will it still be manageable? I'd like to think so.

Just armchair philosophizing

 

[boaz]

Just by listening to the news (and watching the explosion of threads on SDN) on the vigorous healthbill opposition, you can tell a lot of people think this is/was the Armageddon of medicine.

Regardless of whether the OP is a troll I agree that next year will probably see a decline in number of applications.

 

[Cleavername]

well, you can be assured that administrators won't give themselves pay cuts. And, nursing unions won't take cuts easily. That leaves physicians...

ffffuuuuuuuuuuuuu$&$%$#^$#$%&%^*^(&&(*)*t&^r^e%$w#q@$%e^&

 

[Treefingers]

Some of the pre-med people I know are getting really worked up about this. I doubt they'll change majors, but what worries me more is how many chose this profession for the money. Maybe they mature as they go through med school and such, but it makes me wonder how many doctors out there go to work every day just so they can buy another Porsche. It's a good thing if this does weed out the people who are only in it for the cash.

If I end up making $75k a year, but more people have access to health care, I'm cool with that.

 

[tncekm]

Some of the pre-med people I know are getting really worked up about this. I doubt they'll change majors, but what worries me more is how many chose this profession for the money. Maybe they mature as they go through med school and such, but it makes me wonder how many doctors out there go to work every day just so they can buy another Porsche. It's a good thing if this does weed out the people who are only in it for the cash.

If I end up making $75k a year, but more people have access to health care, I'm cool with that.

You say that now, mother Teresa. $75k/yr and you'll NEED a dual income just to be able to raise a family with any sort of decent standard of living and you'll be thinking to yourself "why, oh why, do I work 60hrs/wk and miss out on so much great family time?!?"

You do realize that, if you were given time and half for overtime, a $75k/yr income with physician work hours is $20/hr, don't you? Do us all a favor, and refrain from voting until you've grown up a bit got those silly ideas out of your head.

 

[Treefingers]

You say that now, mother Teresa. $75k/yr and you'll NEED a dual income just to be able to raise a family with any sort of decent standard of living and you'll be thinking to yourself "why, oh why, do I work 60hrs/wk and miss out on so much great family time?!?"

You do realize that, if you were given time and half for overtime, a $75k/yr income with physician work hours is $20/hr, don't you? Do us all a favor, and refrain from voting until you've grown up a bit got those silly ideas out of your head.

Growing up, my family (dual income) made around $60k a year, and life wasn't too bad. I'd be okay making $75k a year (though physicians in America will be paid well above this for the foreseeable future), and if you wouldn't be, that's fine. Different strokes for different folks.

 

[bookfreak89]

Growing up, my family (dual income) made around $60k a year, and life wasn't too bad. I'd be okay making $75k a year (though physicians in America will be paid well above this for the foreseeable future), and if you wouldn't be, that's fine. Different strokes for different folks.

No offense to you, Treefingers, but this argument is used quite frequently. The "my parents made X amount when I was growing up, so I will be okay with X amount of money." I am sure people are not embellishing, but 60K when you were growing up is NOT 60K today. Just like the 75K you are satisfied making now, will not be the same 75K in the future.

 

[JoshUNCW]

No offense to you, Treefingers, but this argument is used quite frequently. The "my parents made X amount when I was growing up, so I will be okay with X amount of money." I am sure people are not embellishing, but 60K when you were growing up is NOT 60K today. Just like the 75K you are satisfied making now, will not be the same 75K in the future.

No, I think your argument is the flawed one. The majority of college majors make 30-40K a year after college. Engineers and computer scientists being at the high end with around 60k a year. They'll move up maybe 30-40k in their lifetime. Maybe. These people still manage to not starve or go cold.

No, you wont make millions being a doctor but you WILL be able to live comfortably on the 100K+ you will be making. And YES, I am taking into account student loans. Even with those, you will be able to feed yourself and your child. You wanna make more money, do something else. You don't like the opportunity cost of medical school/residency? Don't be a doctor.

But don't act like 60k+ a year isn't enough to live on. Because it is.

 

[tncekm]

His point is that you're not considering inflation. E.g. If you have 3.5% inflation, the normal number, over 20 years then the value of your dollar has halved. So, sure, if your parents made $60k/yr when you graduated high school, that might have been good money then. But, lets say that you take 5yrs to get ur BS, 4 for ur MD, 5 for a residency in radiology. That's 15 years. If you were to be paid $100k at the end of that, that's essentially the same as the $60k your parents made growing up. And, if you made $60k, that's like making $35k or so. Money loses value over time.

So, in short, if doctors keep making $180k for the next 30 years, then that's going to work out to be the equivalent of about a $65,000 income by today's standards. So, if you cut doctors salaries even in the slightest, over time they'll be making piss poor money.

No, I think your argument is the flawed one. The majority of college majors make 30-40K a year after college. Engineers and computer scientists being at the high end with around 60k a year. They'll move up maybe 30-40k in their lifetime. Maybe. These people still manage to not starve or go cold.

No, you wont make millions being a doctor but you WILL be able to live comfortably on the 100K+ you will be making. And YES, I am taking into account student loans. Even with those, you will be able to feed yourself and your child. You wanna make more money, do something else. You don't like the opportunity cost of medical school/residency? Don't be a doctor.

But don't act like 60k+ a year isn't enough to live on. Because it is.

 

[bookfreak89]

His point is that you're not considering inflation. E.g. If you have 3.5% inflation, the normal number, over 20 years then the value of your dollar has halved. So, sure, if your parents made $60k/yr when you graduated high school, that might have been good money then. But, lets say that you take 5yrs to get ur BS, 4 for ur MD, 5 for a residency in radiology. That's 15 years. If you were to be paid $100k at the end of that, that's essentially the same as the $60k your parents made growing up. And, if you made $60k, that's like making $35k or so. Money loses value over time.

So, in short, if doctors keep making $180k for the next 30 years, then that's going to work out to be the equivalent of about a $65,000 income by today's standards. So, if you cut doctors salaries even in the slightest, over time they'll be making piss poor money.

This. BTW, I am a she.

 

[Treefingers]

His point is that you're not considering inflation. E.g. If you have 3.5% inflation, the normal number, over 20 years then the value of your dollar has halved. So, sure, if your parents made $60k/yr when you graduated high school, that might have been good money then. But, lets say that you take 5yrs to get ur BS, 4 for ur MD, 5 for a residency in radiology. That's 15 years. If you were to be paid $100k at the end of that, that's essentially the same as the $60k your parents made growing up. And, if you made $60k, that's like making $35k or so. Money loses value over time.

So, in short, if doctors keep making $180k for the next 30 years, then that's going to work out to be the equivalent of about a $65,000 income by today's standards. So, if you cut doctors salaries even in the slightest, over time they'll be making piss poor money.

That makes sense. I guess I meant I would be okay making $75k of today's money. If this bill does cut doctor salaries, it won't stop them from increasing over time to help offset inflation right?