I see a future of an all-reservist purple-suited organization. Stateside medical care abdicated to Kaiser or other HMOs. A few hundred GS stateside primary care types to shuffle paper. The remainder of the medical staff only works when deployed. Get rid of all that infrastructure, AD retirement, GME hassles. Close USUHS and get rid of HPSP. Take volunteers, and if thats not enough for the higher paying specialties, draft doctors. Pay off their loans and pay them big bonuses with a tiny part of the money saved.
BTW, the doctor draft law from the 1950s is still on the books.
OK, thats what I think should happen. What I think will happen is that we will continue to slowly bleed from a thousand cuts, including but by no means limited to:
1. attracting lower quality physicians
2. demanding private practice productivity without providing anywhere near the same support
3. stagnating bonuses/pay
4. 0% retention
5. AHTLA
6. desperate cost-cutting measures (ask NMCP or NMCSD about the current state of contractor physicians) everywhere except inside the beltway
7. The AF passing as much of this work off on the other services (clever, IMO)
8. worse than 0% retention, only retaining doctors who are 1)stuck from long obligations and miserable 2)unable to function in private practice
9. punishing the competent by deploying them over and over again (looking at you NavyFP)
ok, i'll stop there because this is becoming my own "reasons" thread and I don't want to compete with that classic.
And, where that will leave us...I don't know but I do know I won't be there to see it by the time it comes crashing down. We'll keep the deck chairs moving for a little while longer.