Go international or try another round of applications here (concerning debt)?

[Roc Marciano]

I’m Canadian and schools here are very competitive to get into as an out of province applicant. So unfortunately, I only have a shot at 2 schools here.

One is UofT which is the cheapest school I could possibly get into. I haven’t applied before so I’m not sure how competitive I would be but I think I could borderline get an interview.

The other is my province’s dental school (UBC) which is by far the most expensive in the country at ~245k. I was able to make it to the interview stage last year but was ultimately rejected due to a below average performance on the PBL interview; my MMI interview score was competitive. Since I know what I need to improve on I’m confident about my chances next go around, but ofc I can’t be 100% sure I’ll be accepted.

In the meantime I’ve been accepted to USYD in Australia. There’s a reciprocal agreement between Canada and Australia so there would be zero problems getting back to Canada. The degrees are equivalent and no extra testing is required. Tuition at USYD comes to ~290k CAD. Also, the school year is Jan-Nov so I’d be graduating 8 months early vs if I were to get accepted to my province’s school for September 2020.

As for cost of living, for my province’s school, Toronto or Australia I’d be on my own. In province I estimate my cost of living to be ~80k while in Sydney and Toronto I’m not sure but I’m thinking it could get to ~100k.

In terms of quality of education, I’m happy with all of them. Lifestyle wise, living close to family is a huge plus for me but going overseas or across the country could be exciting.

Basically I’m wondering if anybody can offer some advice on how I should go about making a decision. I’m 24 and will be financing everything via loans (interest here will be 3.25%, much lower than in the US I think). Being free of school debt before I’m 40 is the goal and the near 400k I’d be paying for USYD scares me. If I assume 400k @ 3.25% it’d take me until I'm 38 if I make payments of 4k a month. Would 4k a month for 10 years be sustainable assuming I remain an associate? I’d be okay going rural for 3ish years max.

Considering that, I’m having trouble deciding if I should accept my USYD offer or take my chances and try for UBC or UofT. UBC and USYD are fairly comparable tuition wise but even a 65k difference can make the difference of a couple years of debt (I realize graduating 8 months earlier would make up for a decent portion of the difference). UofT on the other hand costs over 100k less than USYD. However, there’s no guarantee I’ll be accepted this year or even the next.

UBC

245k tuition+80k cost of living

~$325k total

Start Sept 2020 IF accepted

UofT

180k tuition+100k cost of living

~280k total

Start Sept 2020 IF accepted

USYD

290k tuition+100k cost of living

~$390k total

Start Jan 2020

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[ab117]

Compare the additional cost to a realistic estimate of how much money you’d make in a year as a dentist if you waited another year to reapply and then consider the possibility you don’t get in again and lose another year, and then consider the awesome opportunity to live in Australia for a few years.

 

[MLC45]

It is true that going the cheapest route is always best, but that's when circumstances are equal. In your case they aren't. You have a dental school offer at one location, you don't at the others. Ask yourself, "What if I turn down this offer, and discover a year from now I still haven't been offered a place at these other two school's. Would I regret my decision?" If the answer is "Yes" then accept the offer. If the answer is "No" then decline it.

 

[Roc Marciano]

Compare the additional cost to a realistic estimate of how much money you’d make in a year as a dentist if you waited another year to reapply and then consider the possibility you don’t get in again and lose another year, and then consider the awesome opportunity to live in Australia for a few years.

It is true that going the cheapest route is always best, but that's when circumstances are equal. In your case they aren't. You have a dental school offer at one location, you don't at the others. Ask yourself, "What if I turn down this offer, and discover a year from now I still haven't been offered a place at these other two school's. Would I regret my decision?" If the answer is "Yes" then accept the offer. If the answer is "No" then decline it.

Thank you. Trying to get into UBC definitely won't make sense due to opportunity cost but I'm still on the fence about taking my chances to get into UofT. UofT will save me over 100k which I'm thinking will be more than my first year salary post-tax. However, I'm still not really sure how much you can potentially earn as an associate in rural Canada so I'll need to look into that more.

 

[ab117]

Thank you. Trying to get into UBC definitely won't make sense due to opportunity cost but I'm still on the fence about taking my chances to get into UofT. UofT will save me over 100k which I'm thinking will be more than my first year salary post-tax. However, I'm still not really sure how much you can potentially earn as an associate in rural Canada so I'll need to look into that more.

Your first year salary isn’t going to be what you lose, that will be the same or less if you start a year later. Estimate a year of normal, established income cause that’s what you’ll make for a year less. Even if it’s a good chunk less, is $20,000-$50,000 or whatever compared to a total lifetime income of several millions significant enough to be worth the very significant risk of not getting in again and losing a second year of income in addition to the first? The numbers are fuzzy and you’ll never get a clear-cut breakeven analysis, the only thing you know for sure is that right now you have a seat and it’s substantially likely that next year you wouldn’t get one even if you try very hard and are a great candidate, because there are always more great candidates than seats. If I were in your position, this would be a hands-down, no-hesitation decision to go Down Under. Are you maybe hesitating due to going far away from family, etc? Your priorities could trump the financial aspect and tip the argument the other way but if it’s just about the cost I’d say it’s really hard to justify applying again.

 

[Roc Marciano]

Your first year salary isn’t going to be what you lose, that will be the same or less if you start a year later. Estimate a year of normal, established income cause that’s what you’ll make for a year less. Even if it’s a good chunk less, is $20,000-$50,000 or whatever compared to a total lifetime income of several millions significant enough to be worth the very significant risk of not getting in again and losing a second year of income in addition to the first? The numbers are fuzzy and you’ll never get a clear-cut breakeven analysis, the only thing you know for sure is that right now you have a seat and it’s substantially likely that next year you wouldn’t get one even if you try very hard and are a great candidate, because there are always more great candidates than seats. If I were in your position, this would be a hands-down, no-hesitation decision to go Down Under. Are you maybe hesitating due to going far away from family, etc? Your priorities could trump the financial aspect and tip the argument the other way but if it’s just about the cost I’d say it’s really hard to justify applying again.

Yeah you're right. Tbh the 400k number scares me but when you break it down like that it does make much more sense to accept my offer. If I were to get declined next cycle it would be crushing and that happening is definitely a possibility. Leaning towards accepting the offer. At this point it's just things separate from costs that I'm going to need to think about a little bit more.