Graphed Data from 2012 -- Days from Application Submittal to AMCAS Validation

[catzzz88]

My MCAT score comes out in 3 days and I got tired of pre-writing secondaries. Thus, I compiled the data from the this year's thread regarding date of submission and date of AMCAS verification.

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=920463

How I made it: First, I removed data from anyone who sent in their transcript after submitting their application. Then, I removed extreme outliers, (assuming that there were other factors involved). Then, I averaged the data for each day of submission. I also included the initial linear portion of the submission data from 2011 to compare the verification times from last year to this year.

Notes: I normalized the data by day. The x-axis is "Number of days from initial application submission" This isn't really clear, but last year "1" would be June 1st and this year, "1" would be June 5th. Hope this makes sense.

Interpretation: This year, the AMCAS is taking more than 5 days longer per day to verify the applications, the slope is a bit steeper and is only taking longer Last year's graph had a very nice fit, as told by the R^2 value. I was having trouble getting a nice fit for this year because there is very little submission data so far, but I did the best that I could. Please take this with a grain of salt because the R^2 for 2012 data is pretty bad. Yet, out of curiosity, I tried creating a trendline for 2011 data for only days 1-9 and the slope was actually even lower than the 2011 full month's data. Hopefully, the slope of 2012 verification will start to decrease soon...

When will you be verified?: Take this with a grain of salt, obviously. I didn't even take it further than the end of the month because the data will probably get worse as it extrapolates further from the data that we already have, but I was curious myself as to when I may be verified based on this linear regression.

Submission Date- Date of Extrapolated Verification
6/14/2012 - 7/1/2012
6/15/2012 - 7/3/2012
6/16/2012 - 7/5/2012
6/17/2012 - 7/7/2012
6/18/2012 - 7/10/2012
6/19/2012 - 7/12/2012
6/20/2012 - 7/14/2012
6/21/2012 - 7/16/2012
6/22/2012 - 7/19/2012
6/23/2012 - 7/21/2012
6/24/2012 - 7/23/2012
6/25/2012 - 7/25/2012
6/26/2012 - 7/28/2012
6/27/2012 - 7/30/2012
6/28/2012 - 8/1/2012
6/29/2012 - 8/3/2012
6/30/2012 - 8/6/2012
​

Future trends in verification time: Also remember that based on last year's data and common sense, this graph will eventually stop being linear. See complete data from the summer of 2011 here for a better estimation of what the trendline will look like in the future: http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=896313

I know that this isn't exactly good news that things are indeed moving much slower than last year, but I hope that it helps others plan accordingly. Get those apps in ASAP!

Best,
C

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[darkjedi]

I wonder why they don't just hire more verifiers to keep up with the increasing number of applications. There's really no excuse for the length of verification to continue increasing like this year after year. God knows they take in a ton of money through app fees.

 

[EnergyDrink]

Thanks for doing this, I was far to lazy and just wanted a quick calculation.

The issue I have is people who submitted on 6/11 still haven't received their verification, which means they won't until 7/2 at the earliest. That's 3 weeks at best. Last year it would take about 10 days.

Also, the graph is going to be unique. You get a bunch of applicants submitting the first day, and not that many the next few days, and then the number would steadily rise. Since they already got through the first day lump, the rate should be pretty much stay at 3 weeks for a little while, then increase probably later this month. So although the people who submitted the first week are getting screwed, the rest should take about 3 weeks.

Moral of the story: submit early.

 

[catzzz88]

Thanks for doing this, I was far to lazy and just wanted a quick calculation.

The issue I have is people who submitted on 6/11 still haven't received their verification, which means they won't until 7/2 at the earliest. That's 3 weeks at best. Last year it would take about 10 days.

Actually, check out the most recent app status thread. That's what I used and people who submitted as late as 6/13 have been verified. This is assuming that all transcripts, etc are in. Also, some people may be getting corrections to transcripts which can add even more time.

But yes, verification seems to be taking FOREVER this year. Ugh.

I planned according to last years data so now I am frustrated...

 

[Jepstein30]

Actually, check out the most recent app status thread. That's what I used and people who submitted as late as 6/13 have been verified. This is assuming that all transcripts, etc are in. Also, some people may be getting corrections to transcripts which can add even more time.

But yes, verification seems to be taking FOREVER this year. Ugh.

I planned according to last years data so now I am frustrated...

I think this is because last year it was first come first serve secondaries wise. Now that they put a "first transmission to schools" type thing, they are favoring everyone who did EDP first. If you look at that thread, plenty of people who did EDP were verified with submission dates as late as Friday. AMCAS was probably working through all those people first so I don't think it'll be that long for those who submitted 2-3 weeks ago.

I submitted June 22nd and am kinda happy if this data is correct. I don't want to receive secondaries until AFTER I take the MCATs on July 14th so I can send them back in a timely manner.

 

[MedPR]

I wonder why they don't just hire more verifiers to keep up with the increasing number of applications. There's really no excuse for the length of verification to continue increasing like this year after year. God knows they take in a ton of money through app fees.

We'd end up paying for it. I don't want to pay AMCAS anymore than I already do.

 

[catzzz88]

We'd end up paying for it. I don't want to pay AMCAS anymore than I already do.

I don't know about you, but I would pay an extra $10 to get this stuff done twice as fast. With over 40,000 applicants per summer, they would make $400,000 more this summer. They could hire at least 20 more minions for just the summer with that...

Right?

 

[darkjedi]

We'd end up paying for it. I don't want to pay AMCAS anymore than I already do.

Theoretically, the more that apply the more app fees they should be getting in. Should be paying for itself.

 

[EnergyDrink]

I don't know about you, but I would pay an extra $10 to get this stuff done twice as fast. With over 40,000 applicants per summer, they would make $400,000 more this summer. They could hire at least 20 more minions for just the summer with that...

Right?

I was thinking they could offer an expedited service for $50. If you pay it, your verification gets priority. This will help them in stomping out even more people who can barely afford applying.

This provides an extra angle for EDP. Can you submit EDP, get verified, and then decide screw it and apply standard immediately after?

 

[DAPI]

I was thinking they could offer an expedited service for $50. If you pay it, your verification gets priority. This will help them in stomping out even more people who can barely afford applying.

This provides an extra angle for EDP. Can you submit EDP, get verified, and then decide screw it and apply standard immediately after?

I thought this same thing when I saw EDP people getting verified same day.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

Is it not a part of the EDP that you cannot apply elsewhere until your EDP goes through, and you cannot opt out?

 

[EnergyDrink]

Is it not a part of the EDP that you cannot apply elsewhere until your EDP goes through, and you cannot opt out?

You may be locked in until August 1st. So people applying now probably have nothing to lose applying EDP, then dropping out August 1st and applying broad. They'd accelerate their verification this way, right?

 

[catzzz88]

You may be locked in until August 1st. So people applying now probably have nothing to lose applying EDP, then dropping out August 1st and applying broad. They'd accelerate their verification this way, right?

Lets not give people any bright ideas.

All the pre-meds here are probably like:

 

[FrontierPsych]

I sent in my application on the 27th, so it looks like I should be verified by the end of the July. Is this considered late?

 

[xroc]

I would probably assume that it's going to be more like mid-August based on how slow things are going this year, but as long as you're working on your secondaries now and have them all ready once you get verified, I don't believe you'll be late (you won't be early, but def. not late)

 

[1289]

did someone say there are people who submit June 13th who have been verified? on the amcas home page it says they're working on June 12th "ready for review" apps. so did we decide they must be EDP? I submit the 14th and i am getting so ANTSY!!!

 

[SaintJude]

yeah, it's strange. so many people thought they were "early" by submitting the 14th, but I guess not....when do most admissions schools start reading apps? weekend after 4th july maybe?

 

[PreMedOrDead]

According to the UPitt thread they're already getting interviews.

Damnit, AMCAS, verify my application already.

You may be locked in until August 1st. So people applying now probably have nothing to lose applying EDP, then dropping out August 1st and applying broad. They'd accelerate their verification this way, right?

Yes, at this point I feel like I should've done this and I submitted the 17th.
They're ridiculously slow this year.

 

[wanderedtoolong]

This is ridiculous. I'm sure AMCAS is off 4th of July as well. Why don't they just shell out for some overtime this time or year.

 

[1289]

i'm trying not to be one of these neurotic people on here but I'm honestly going nuts that I can't start sending in secondaries yet.

 

[SaintJude]

meh, i would probably be worried too--but I actually haven't even completed a single secondary. so i'm not even stressing about it yet...

the people who got interviews...were they EDP ?!? I didn't know it started this early!

 

[oftw]

AMCAS is in DC, right? There was a massive storm that hit right before the weekend. Power outages in the area are expected to last upwards of a week. That probably has some effect.

 

[1289]

ahhh good point. didn't even think of that.

 

[kpcrew]

I can't wait to see all the threads asking about how to answer questions for secondaries.
looks like it's happening already

 

[ilovemedi]

I think this is because last year it was first come first serve secondaries wise. Now that they put a "first transmission to schools" type thing, they are favoring everyone who did EDP first. If you look at that thread, plenty of people who did EDP were verified with submission dates as late as Friday. AMCAS was probably working through all those people first so I don't think it'll be that long for those who submitted 2-3 weeks ago.

I submitted June 22nd and am kinda happy if this data is correct. I don't want to receive secondaries until AFTER I take the MCATs on July 14th so I can send them back in a timely manner.

what do you mean the secondary process is different? its not 1st come 1st serve anymore?

 

[drizzt3117]

Since you are reapplying how did you not get your app in 6/1?

I guess I never figured out the whole late app thing, it's got to account for more then half of the ppl who aren't accepted if not much more.

did someone say there are people who submit June 13th who have been verified? on the amcas home page it says they're working on June 12th "ready for review" apps. so did we decide they must be EDP? I submit the 14th and i am getting so ANTSY!!!

 

[1289]

Since you are reapplying how did you not get your app in 6/1?

I guess I never figured out the whole late app thing, it's got to account for more then half of the ppl who aren't accepted if not much more.

I knew the data transmission date was the 29th and wanted to try and balance out giving my current waitlists enough time/getting my app verified by the 29th. I went by last years data that submitting on the 14th would lead to verification by the 29th. obviously kicking myself now, but given that realistically one of my best chances this year is at Madison it doesn't really matter for them at all since I can't submit their secondary until the end of August.

also since June 5th was the first date of submission this year I didn't consider submitting barely a week later to be "late." last year I applied in September. that was late.

 

[ilovemedi]

I wish I never saw this thread...... basically, '13 cycle is screwed w/ more people applying. and the later you apply, even more worse than before. ugh.

has anyone's verification take longer than 6 weeks? even tho amcas claims to complete it "up to 6 weeks"....

 

[1289]

well at this point no one could have taken that long since June 5th was the first submission date. Just be glad you submit when you did, imagine if you still hadn't!

 

[SaintJude]

yeah , I know someone who is waiting to just change her paragraphs--> bullets in her work& activities section and so she's waiting until the weekend to submit...i told her to forget about making it perfect and submit that day! She's still working on it...

 

[californiamed]

hahahaha. yeah i'm still in the process of writing parts of the app. I won't submit until 1.5-2 weeks (mostly due to my PS). if amcas does follow its own rule and keeps to the "up to 6 weeks" rule, i'll be - hopefully- verified ~8/29. and already have secondaries pre-written. I don't want to give up, but this cycle will suck.

and @saintjude - isn't paragraphs better than bullets??? that's what i thought by reading sdn threads...

 

[SaintJude]

some like bullets for brevity, others like paragraphs for eloquence , some like a mix..

 

[miku]

.

 

[moneytree]

This is money. Would you care to update this?