Help! Exam in 3 days! Does UWSA overpredict?

[jack.jaret]

I took NBME 13 2 weeks ago and got a 213. I took NBME 15 1 week ago and got a 209. I took UWSA 2 today and got a 230. Are things "coming together" for me or does this exam overpredict? I heard it used to overpredict but they recently changed up the scale to make it more accurate. Any thoughts?

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[HelpPleaseMD]

i'd guess this means you are not ready. you have 2 test that show you performing very low and only 1 where you performed average.

 

[Psai]

Nbmes are predictive

 

[JustaDO]

Unless something changed in the last 2 weeks, biostatistics is on the USMLE to my knowledge. As such OP, using those statistical concepts, you have 2 low scores, and 1 average score (for USMLE takers) at best. Knowing that, I think you can answer your own question.

 

[jack.jaret]

I'm not the sharpest cookie. I'm not looking to do extraordinarily well. Just hoping for a 220.

 

[sliceofbread136]

Why not just take an nbme tomorrow and decide off of that?

 

[StrongIslandDoc]

I'd actually be interested in knowing the answer to OP's question in the title of the thread; is there any data (anecdotal or not) on UWSA prediction since they changed their length and scale?

 

[Amba]

I'd actually be interested in knowing the answer to OP's question in the title of the thread; is there any data (anecdotal or not) on UWSA prediction since they changed their length and scale?

There are multiple threads about this in the step 1 forum. Plus no one who has taken it with the new scale has received their actual step score yet.

 

[moisne]

Uworld said 245 for me, nbme ranged 240-250. My score 237. No I don't have test taking anxiety. I typically do better under stress (usually do at least 10% better on any practice exam for school on the real test).

Either nbme just didn't predict well, had a harder test (i.e. Heavy on my weaker areas), or it could be I fought with my SO 15 min before I left the house. Block 1 was hell for me. Blocks varied - some I marked like 50% of the questions, some block I only was unsure of 4 questions or so.

Anyways - OP, good luck.

 

[jack.jaret]

Uworld said 245 for me, nbme ranged 240-250. My score 237. No I don't have test taking anxiety. I typically do better under stress (usually do at least 10% better on any practice exam for school on the real test).

Either nbme just didn't predict well, had a harder test (i.e. Heavy on my weaker areas), or it could be I fought with my SO 15 min before I left the house. Block 1 was hell for me. Blocks varied - some I marked like 50% of the questions, some block I only was unsure of 4 questions or so.

Anyways - OP, good luck.

Thanks man. Wow, you marked 50% in some blocks? Just goes to show you that no one will ever feel confident on test day. Thanks man, that makes me feel better. Your score is still awesome.

To follow up: took NBME 16 and the score varied by only 4 points from UWSA 2