one element that hasn't been mentioned but that will definately come into play will be the cost of applying.
looking at the amcas fees only, if you apply to say, the average of 15 schools, amcas is going to hit you up for $525. being the good applicant that you are, you'll get 15 secondaries that will ask for probably an average of $65 bucks each. that's an additional $975. when your invites for interviews come in you're responsible for travel costs, most food, and possibly lodging if you don't stay with a host. i was lucky in that i have a car here at school and was able to drive to many of my interviews. but like most people, i did have several interviews that were too far for driving, and i ended up with a few 300 dollar plane tickets to buy. as everyone who has gone through this process knows, it can become very expensive.
if you're going to try to play the shot-gun approach and apply to more than, say 20-25 schools (like some of my friends did) i'd seriously recommend setting aside an "med school application costs" fund now. as far as "safety" numbers go it really varies per applicant. i applied to 8, i've met people that applied to as few as 3 and as many as 33.
[This message has been edited by dxn (edited 03-10-2001).]