How far down rank list?

[SpliceOfLife]

I've been trying to find data on how far down applicants end up going on their rank list. NRMP has data on how many contiguous ranks applicants need to match into a specialty, as well as data on how many applicants need to be ranked for program spots to be filled from a program perspective. However, I don't see any data on what rank number an applicant matches at.

In other words, I'm trying to find data saying that X% of surgical applicants with such-and-such characteristics (scores, grades, state, school, whatever) end up at their first choice, Y% end up at their second choice, etc. Does this exist? Or if it doesn't can anyone share some anecdotal data or know where I can find that?

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[SpecializedSurgeon]

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2017.pdf

I think Figure 7 is what you are after?

 

[SpecializedSurgeon]

I haven’t seen any data breaking it down by applicant characteristics, btw — I bet that wouldn’t be overly revealing tbough

 

[SpartanWolverine]

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2017.pdf

I think Figure 7 is what you are after?

If I'm interpreting that correctly, broadly, 51% of matched applicants get their first choice, 17% get their second choice, 11% get their third choice, 6% get their fourth choice, and 16% match below their fourth rank. Not bad, really, if there's nearly an 80% chance of matching at one of your top three.

 

[SpecializedSurgeon]

If I'm interpreting that correctly, broadly, 51% of matched applicants get their first choice, 17% get their second choice, 11% get their third choice, 6% get their fourth choice, and 16% match below their fourth rank. Not bad, really, if there's nearly an 80% chance of matching at one of your top three.

Yep

 

[SpliceOfLife]

Thanks for posting this. I've seen this before but had forgotten about it.

This is quite helpful but I am still surprised they don't publish data by applicant characteristic. I would guess that applicants in some competitive specialties are more likely to match at a program that they ranked lower versus the same quality applicants in less competitive specialties, in part because applicants in more competitive specialties interview at and rank more programs because they have to. For instance, the 2016 data shows that successful median applicants in neurosurgery rank 16 programs! Versus 9 in psychiatry. What I'm wondering is whether a higher percentage of neurosurgery applicants are getting their 4th choice or lower versus psych applicants. I'm not applying in either of these specialties - just trying to make a point.

I guess the other way to interpret this is that there is no real difference by program type since NRMP didn't publish data by program type, but I still find that hard to believe...

 

[SpecializedSurgeon]

Thanks for posting this. I've seen this before but had forgotten about it.

This is quite helpful but I am still surprised they don't publish data by applicant characteristic. I would guess that applicants in some competitive specialties are more likely to match at a program that they ranked lower versus the same quality applicants in less competitive specialties, in part because applicants in more competitive specialties interview at and rank more programs because they have to. For instance, the 2016 data shows that successful median applicants in neurosurgery rank 16 programs! Versus 9 in psychiatry. What I'm wondering is whether a higher percentage of neurosurgery applicants are getting their 4th choice or lower versus psych applicants. I'm not applying in either of these specialties - just trying to make a point.

I guess the other way to interpret this is that there is no real difference by program type since NRMP didn't publish data by program type, but I still find that hard to believe...

I would think you are looking for this to get an idea of where you will end up on your list based on your numbers.

My guess is, however, that even if that data was published it wouldn’t mean much as it’s tough to generalize as to why somebody matched at the top or bottom of their list — the intangibles become too complicated to make it useful