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How good a predictor are the NBME's?

Discussion in 'Step I' started by vtrain, Aug 5, 2006.

  1. vtrain

    vtrain Senior Member
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    Hey, I ended up scoring a 510 on my NBME 2, three days before the exam. 67% was what I was getting on my qbank questions. 78% on the released questions one day before the exam. So, I should be getting about a 215-220 on the real thing, right? i just took my exam a couple of days ago and it was HARD. I mean, I felt horrible after the exam. Failing wasn't even a consideration as I was preparing for the exam. I figured I would get around 215 or so, not the best, but definitely not a 175. Walking out of that exam, I would not be surprised if I failed. I would kill for a 215 right now after the way things went. Can anyone else relate? Anyone out there balsy enough to say that they did MUCH worse on the real thing compared to the NBMEs? How good of a predictor are they really? I'm just sooo fustrated right now --- after all those weeks of studying and have it end up like this. Ok - I'm gonna go get liquored now and drown my sorrows....:(
     
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  3. exmike

    exmike NOR * CAL
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    they seem to be more or less the best correlation out there. most people score within a few point of their nbmes. For me, my best NBME score underpredicted my actual score by six points.
     
  4. Mye Eye

    Mye Eye Ophtho Cookie Eater
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    i agree...step 1 is hard...that's the goal...i was NOT pleased walking out...but my NBME underpredicted my BEST by 4 points...you will be fine

    congrats in advance :)
     
  5. thackl

    thackl 1K Member
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    The NBME subject exams seem to be prety good as well. The wieghted avg of all mine over the first 2 yrs was 4pts off of my step1 score.
     
  6. AmoryBlaine

    AmoryBlaine the last tycoon
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    I think they slightly underpredict, but they are better than anything else out there.
     
  7. I'm not convinced that they are reliable predictors. There seems to be a lot of sentiment on this forum of their value.....there is also an average step 1 score in the 240's on this forum. Take that for what it's worth.

    My highest NBME underestimated my true score by 10 points. My lowest NBME score underestimated my true score by almost 30 points. On the other hand, a good friend of mine's true score was alomst 30 points lower than her best NBME score. High variability.

    The score summary says that "under certain circumstances" it "may" be predictive of your actual performance, but it doesn't tell you what those circumstances might be. In short, don't hang your hat on it one way or the other. It's practice question sets - ultimately nothing more.
     
  8. exmike

    exmike NOR * CAL
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    noone said it was a completly reliable predictor. its simply the best one there is, however imprecise.
     
  9. ralhtar

    ralhtar Member
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    my NBME score overpredicted my real score by 3 points....so its definitely a pretty good predictor of the real deal in my opinion...i've heard that its +/- 8 points...
    as far as Qbank...i was averaging about 65% on qbank and i'd finished about 70% of the questions and my real score was 239 which i believe is higher than what kaplan score would've predicted..so i don't think qbank is a good predictor...the nbme however works!
    hope this helps.
     

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