The numbers here are high, but it is important to note that SDN is not a representative sample of the entire applicant pool.
The AAMC-reported average for 2007 was 13. That number may rise slightly this year, but I doubt that the change will be substantial.
That includes applicants in states like LA and MS where people with good stats apply to maybe 2 or 3 schools, tops...(see "Bcblazer" above, a MS resident with "average +" stats, applying to 4)...
But I think there is a point of diminishing returns after around 20 schools for most people, and that assumes that 15 of the 20 are not in the USNews Top 20...
When making up a list, start with the end in mind. How many interviews do you think you need to get at least 1 acceptance, preferably 2 or 3 acceptances? (I live in a state with 3 public med schools, and my stats are significantly higher than 2 of them and right in line with the other one, so I am counting on interviews at all 3 schools, and acceptance to at least one, but to build a cushion to get at least one if not 2 more acceptances, I think I will need a minimum of 5 more interviews OOS). Personally, I think I would hit burnout (and run out of money) on interviews at around 10 to 12 (and that seems to be common if you look at past threads), so I keep this number in the back of my mind as the max number of interviews I intend to do...
How many secondaries do you need to fill out to get that number of interviews? (again, for me, 3 IS and perhaps 10 OOS => min 13 secondaries) How many primaries do you need to submit to get that number of secondaries? (Again for me, probably 15 primaries is the minimum, depending on the mix).
And most importantly - what is the mix of schools that will yield the greatest number of interviews? (using
LizzyM, I think that at least 2/3 of the schools should be at or beneath my numbers, so for 15 primaries, a max of 5 "reach/dream" schools, and I should not aim for just the Top 5 ranked schools, but maybe 1 or 2 in the Top 20, say 2 or 3 in the 20 to 40 rank, and maybe another one or two in the bottom end of the Top 50).
So if you have average or better stats, etc., and live in a state with more or less closed admissions (LA, MS, etc), you may be able to apply to as few as 2 to 3 schools to get an acceptance. If you live in a state with extreme competition (CA), or without a med school at all, you undoubtedly need to have a much larger cushion, probably 20 apps. I fall somewhere in the middle of that in terms of IS competition, and am a somewhat above average in stats, so I am aiming for a minimum of, say, 15 primaries with the mix I suggested above...
All bets are off if you have sub par stats...30+ primary apps may be prudent.
Anyway, this is how I am approaching it...YMMV...it really depends on your state and how competitive you are there...if I lived in CA with my stats I would be looking at applying to at least 20 schools...if I lived in LA, I could conceivably apply to as few as 8 to 10 schools to achieve my goal of 2 or 3 acceptances...
One more thing: all of the above assumes applying EARLY, having LORS, etc., all lined up and in hand, and quick turnaround on secondaries...the later you apply, the more schools you need to add...
"One more thing" #2: I do not consider schools like BU, GW, Jefferson, Drexel, and Georgetown "ballpark" or "safety" schools even though my stats are better than their averages...in a perverse way, these are reach schools for almost all applicants as far as I am concerned...not applying to any of them anyway...
