How many ophtho interviews do you have as of 10/20/14?

[RasheedMD]

couldn't wait till tomorrow

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[eyeloveyes]

Did you intend to make one of the options 10-12 and another one 11-14?

 

[RasheedMD]

lol yes

 

[medphysik2015]

can we just pretend that all the votes in the 15+ category are outliers? I know we don't have enough data yet to truly say that but it does make me feel a bit better about the whole situation.

 

[OphthoApplicant04]

Expect a lot of outliers on SDN by nature.

 

[elementals]

look at that beautiful bell-shaped curve ............ plus a spike on the high end. i hereby name that the SDN curve.

 

[DopaDO]

Is there any word on how many to feel comfortable about matching? I'm sitting at 7 right now...

 

[123eyes]

What do I choose if I have 2, 11, or 12 interviews?

 

[laxplayanumba16]

Guessing "11-14" is meant to be 13-14...?

 

[eyeloveyes]

Haha thank you laxplayanumba16 and 123eyes....

 

[TheZealot]

The SDN curve is definitely a factor here... These statistics have probably been mentioned in other threads, but if you haven't seen them they are interesting. The Iowa guide to matching in ophthalmology states that the average applicant received 4.7 interviews in 2013 (from SF data, http://webeye.ophth.uiowa.edu/eyeforum/tutorials/Iowa-Guide-to-the-Ophthalmology-Match.pdf). Far fewer than 15+!

Also, Yousuf demonstrated that there probably is no benefit in ranking more than 11 programs. If you can rank 6-8 you're chances of matching are very good. (http://medicine.stonybrookmedicine.edu/system/files/neofiles/Match 2012 Yousuf et al.pdf)

There's still a decent number of programs who haven't sent out interviews as well. So try to keep your chin up if you're on the lower end of the spectrum on the number of interview invites you've received! Best of luck to everyone

 

[elementals]

I know this is splitting hairs, but I was never quite clear what SFMatch meant by "average number of offers per applicant," which was only 4.3 last year. Does that refer to interview offers? A position on the rank list? A position on the rank list high enough to have actually matched to that program if the applicant had ranked the program first on their list? Depending on what it means, the actual number of interviews per applicant could be ~4, a little higher than 4, or significantly higher than 4. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but 4 just seems so low compared to the numbers SDNers are rocking!

All that said: what I've generally heard is that interviewing and ranking 8-12 programs is considered "safe". So I think you'll be fine, DopaDO.

 

[DopaDO]

I know this is splitting hairs, but I was never quite clear what SFMatch meant by "average number of offers per applicant," which was only 4.3 last year. Does that refer to interview offers? A position on the rank list? A position on the rank list high enough to have actually matched to that program if the applicant had ranked the program first on their list? Depending on what it means, the actual number of interviews per applicant could be ~4, a little higher than 4, or significantly higher than 4. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but 4 just seems so low compared to the numbers SDNers are rocking!

All that said: what I've generally heard is that interviewing and ranking 8-12 programs is considered "safe". So I think you'll be fine, DopaDO.

Thanks! Hope your right. Still want to get to double digits though!

 

[medphysik2015]

I know this is splitting hairs, but I was never quite clear what SFMatch meant by "average number of offers per applicant," which was only 4.3 last year. Does that refer to interview offers? A position on the rank list? A position on the rank list high enough to have actually matched to that program if the applicant had ranked the program first on their list? Depending on what it means, the actual number of interviews per applicant could be ~4, a little higher than 4, or significantly higher than 4. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but 4 just seems so low compared to the numbers SDNers are rocking!

All that said: what I've generally heard is that interviewing and ranking 8-12 programs is considered "safe". So I think you'll be fine, DopaDO.

I believe 4.3 average offers is those who match as well as those who do not match. Bare with me I am going to try and make sense of this all.

There were 611 who submitted rank lists and 460 positions. Match rate last year was 0.75 percent overall (460/611). If there were 4.3 offers average per applicant then there were 4.3*611 total offers. This means 2,627 offers total.

Lets assume that the average matched applicant received anywhere from 1-4 offers. If they averaged 1 offer, and 25% didn't match, this takes .25*611 offers out of the 2627, leaving 2,475 left for the rest of us (.75*611). This means, the average matched applicant will have around 5.4 offers. If the average unmatched applicant has 4 offers, this is means the average matched applicant has 4.4 by the same logic.

There are some weaknesses here. Of course there are people with 11 interviews or higher that don't match, etc. But lets take it to the extreme, if the average unmatched applicant has no interviews, the average matched applicant needs 5.7.

I don't really know where this leaves us. Basically it is difficult to say anything with the SF match data. I hope we can get the SF match to release better data for the next round of victims.

 

[elementals]

that was some impressive number-crunching, medphysik! i know it's all theoretical and based on assumptions, but it still gave me a better ballpark sense of things, i think.

i agree about the data, though. i'm so envious of the Charting Outcomes thing ERAS puts out. comparatively, SFMatch's statistics are so paltry.

 

[asrhx4]

I've gotten only 6 interviews, but I know other people from my school who have gotten upwards of 12-15. Guess those out of towns really do help.

 

[medphysik2015]

Just checking in after finishing my CK..

I've gotten only 6 interviews, but I know other people from my school who have gotten upwards of 12-15. Guess those out of towns really do help.

I am gonna have to agree with you here. One of the students above me down played away rotations and I am really wishing I hadn't listened to him.. I wish I had something motivational to say here but ck took my motivational spirit away.

Are we all still under the impression that the 15+ club is going to start canceling and programs are going to send out more invites or have we abandoned that?

 

[rEYEmnocerus]

Just checking in after finishing my CK..



I am gonna have to agree with you here. One of the students above me down played away rotations and I am really wishing I hadn't listened to him.. I wish I had something motivational to say here but ck took my motivational spirit away.

Are we all still under the impression that the 15+ club is going to start canceling and programs are going to send out more invites or have we abandoned that?

Can anyone from years past answer this question? Were there ever cancellation interview offers?! What a cliffhanger this was.

 

[docta9]

I had 15 interviews, plenty in my book. I didn't do any away rotations. As far as post #17, medphysik2015, that shows that some people are psychopaths. We are all comrades here. No need to sabotage someone else. Doing so just shows that you have a psychiatric illness, though possibly mild and possibly able to hide it from others. Just say it straight that away rotations have the potential to help but things don't always go according to plan.

 

[airplanes]

They can help but let's not pretend that a couple of away rotations is the difference between 6 and 12 interviews.