How much harder will it be to get into medical school in 5 years? 10 years?

[squeagel]

Sitting at the border of 3.4/3.5, many people have a shot currently at MD with great ECs, upward trend etc. but I want to get an idea of whether that kind of hope will still be there for those applying with those kinds of stats in the years to come, as there are more applicants every year.


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[darkjedi]

Unless the field of medicine fundamentally changes and becomes less appealing, I can only imagine that it will get continuously more competitive. Despite the fact that there are new schools opening, the number of applicants goes up significantly more.

Provided you do well on the MCAT you still stand a good chance.

 

[Espressso]

As history shows, I think the admissions process gets more and more competitive (and thus, difficult/challenging) with each passing year.

 

[Nommonnom]

I would expect the competitiveness to decline with the drive to open new schools. People are only considering MD competitiveness to say it is competitive at all now. It's not that competitive even right now if you consider MD and DO together.

 

[Lawpy]

I am going to work on an extensive and detailed analysis on the competition of medical school admissions, since it requires using some resources that I would need to acquire SDN permission. Sometime this year, I will post a thread with my findings and forecast.

Until then, assume that medical school admissions will continue to become more selective and prepare accordingly. Doing much better than expected is much more preferable than aiming unreasonably high and ending up having to reapply.

 

[libertyyne]

I do think the movement towards holistic review has decreased some upward pressure on raw stats and has increased pressure on ECs. Coupled with the rebalancing of the MCAT will probably show a temporary dip in overall lizzyMs.

 

[efle]

I'm not gonna try to extrapolate off the data 5-10 years into the future for apps/matrics because as you can see it's not a nice linear trend. I did go ahead and add a point for GPA and MCAT (old) in the 2020-2021 cycle if the trends there had held.

I think the new MCAT is going to make things weird for a cycle or two and I have no idea at all about what the EC expectations were like 5-10 years ago vs now.

 

[Lawpy]

I'm not gonna try to extrapolate off the data 5-10 years into the future for apps/matrics because as you can see it's not a nice linear trend. I did go ahead and add a point for GPA and MCAT (old) in the 2020-2021 cycle if the trends there had held.

I think the new MCAT is going to make things weird for a cycle or two and I have no idea at all about what the EC expectations were like 5-10 years ago vs now.

yeah it's too difficult to say now and forecasting is probably futile at this point due to external changes like MCAT changes/rebalancing. also have no idea what ECs will be in the future or were in the past. that's something not quantifiable.

GPAs and MCATs seem to steadily increase but i think that's expected anyways.

 

[Lucca]

I'm not gonna try to extrapolate off the data 5-10 years into the future for apps/matrics because as you can see it's not a nice linear trend. I did go ahead and add a point for GPA and MCAT (old) in the 2020-2021 cycle if the trends there had held.

I think the new MCAT is going to make things weird for a cycle or two and I have no idea at all about what the EC expectations were like 5-10 years ago vs now.

This means that a true gunner taking a gap year needs to weigh the odds of improving their app enough to outpace "competition inflation" each year.

JK pls no one do that.

But also the MCAT and GPA trend for matriculants is pretty linear!

 

[RogueBanana]

This means that a true gunner taking a gap year needs to weigh the odds of improving their app enough to outpace "competition inflation" each year.

JK pls no one do that.

But also the MCAT and GPA trend for matriculants is pretty linear!

Inb4 some gunner makes the "Increasing Competition Versus Metric Improvement in App based on number of gap years" Excel doc

 

[Lucca]

Inb4 some gunner makes the "Increasing Competition Versus Metric Improvement in App based on number of gap years" Excel doc

........


*minimizes Excel*


JK true gunners do everything in R.


...

*minimizes R Studio*

 

[efle]

One of the largest factors in competitiveness is simply demographics. What is the size of the college age applicant pool? This was a major factor is the shrinking of the applicant pool in the late 1990s and and early 2000s and wholly predictable.

Another factor is the attractiveness (or non) of medicine and other professions. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, there was widespread negative publicity of the 1) cost/time/effort of education and training to be a doctor 2) the insurance, lawsuits etc of being in practice and 3) the start of managed care. There was also the positive publicity and sudden growth computers/technology as well as law/business. This began a sudden and dramatic drop in premed studies and increase in techology and business/law studies as undergrad which led to a drop in med school application. Almost as suddenly, the dot com bubble burst in 1990 followed by a business recession led to a sudden increase in med school application 4-5 years later (the kag time for college studies).

My point to all this is while population demographics can predict some impact on the applicant, many other factors cannot be predicted. So what will happen in 5-10 years is anybody's guess

It's interesting that the stats creep has been such a consistent trend in spite of changing demographics/app numbers

 

[libertyyne]

It's interesting that the stats creep has been such a consistent trend in spite of changing demographics/app numbers

The mean median MCAT score for the whole population has also shifted upwards I wonder what the data would look like adjusting for that and general grade inflation at universities.

 

[deleted647690]

This means that a true gunner taking a gap year needs to weigh the odds of improving their app enough to outpace "competition inflation" each year.

JK pls no one do that.

But also the MCAT and GPA trend for matriculants is pretty linear!

I was thinking the same thing

 

[efle]

The mean median MCAT score for the whole population has also shifted upwards I wonder what the data would look like adjusting for that and general grade inflation at universities.

In recent years? Looks like in 2008 a 30 was 80.4th percentile and in 2015 a 30 was 79th percentile?

reverberations from sites such as SDN, get greatly amplified and thus become their own factor

To clarify, you mean the rise of sites like SDN have changed how competitive admissions is perceived to be by premeds?

 

[Lawpy]

In recent years? Looks like in 2008 a 30 was 80.4th percentile and in 2015 a 30 was 79th percentile?

? In 2008, a 30 was 75.3─80.4 percentile range

 

[libertyyne]

In recent years? Looks like in 2008 a 30 was 80.4th percentile and in 2015 a 30 was 79th percentile?



To clarify, you mean the rise of sites like SDN have changed how competitive admissions is perceived to be by premeds?

It is .9 points increase in the average MCAT score over 10 years or so.

 

[Nommonnom]

It's interesting that the stats creep has been such a consistent trend in spite of changing demographics/app numbers

If I had to guess I'd guess I would guess younger adcoms are driving the numbers-driven change while older adcoms

It is .9 points increase in the average MCAT score over 10 years or so.

Bit misleading. Almost all of that was in the first two years, the first year before the financial crisis, the second year after when medicine would have attracted stronger candidates.

 

[efle]

It is .9 points increase in the average MCAT score over 10 years or so.

That appears to be the average Applicant MCAT not the 50th percentile score?

 

[efle]

? In 2008, a 30 was 75.3─80.4 percentile range

They switched to listing only the ceiling of the percentile bin, and rounding off, in subsequent years. So the final MCAT bin was 30 = ~ 73.5-79.4

 

[libertyyne]

If I had to guess I'd guess I would guess younger adcoms are driving the numbers-driven change while older adcoms


Bit misleading. Almost all of that was in the first two years, the first year before the financial crisis, the second year after when medicine would have attracted stronger candidates.

I don't think you can make that argument that easily. There should be a lag time because I bankers don't have pre-reqs done. The increase of .3 points in 07-08 would have been before the crisis completely unfolded ,no?

 

[Lawpy]

They switched to listing only the ceiling of the percentile bin, and rounding off, in subsequent years. So the final MCAT bin was 30 = ~ 73.5-79.4

wouldn't this imply the median was increasing? in 2008, 25 was roughly 51st percentile, while in 2015, 25 was roughly 49th percentile?

 

[efle]

wouldn't this imply the median was increasing? in 2008, 25 was roughly 51st percentile, while in 2015, 25 was roughly 49th percentile?

that looks about as static as could reasonably be expected

 

[Goro]

It will be easier to try to predict who will win the 2020 presidential election.

Apps go up in times of economic difficulty, and decline when times are good.

About 15 years ago, so many more women were applying to med schools at such a rate that if the trend continued, the US MD workforce would be predominantly female by 2040 or so. That's no longer the case and as such, some schools have significant gender disparities in their classes (like U Miami 122 male and 75 female).

There is a stats arms race, but this is driven in part by some cultural issues. But this in turn, leads to a pool of applicants are excellent students, and nothing more. Given the change in medical education to one that is competency driven, of which academics is only 1/6, we may see a shift towards requirements that are more humanistic. For example, actual job experience.

TL;DR: who knows????

Sitting at the border of 3.4/3.5, many people have a shot currently at MD with great ECs, upward trend etc. but I want to get an idea of whether that kind of hope will still be there for those applying with those kinds of stats in the years to come, as there are more applicants every year.


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[bananafish94]

The numbers have a ceiling and I personally don't think they will change a whole lot. The MCAT averages might get a little bit higher but in terms of GPA I don't think a whole lot will happen, especially because the difference between a ~3.7 and a ~3.9 really doesn't tell you much at all about how academically qualified somebody is, due to all sorts of confounding variables. I think that the qualitative aspects will increase in competitiveness. If my little sister wants to apply to medical school in 10 years I think that a gap year or two will be expected and required at some schools, rather than just offering a boost to your application.

 

[efle]

the difference between a ~3.7 and a ~3.9 really doesn't tell you much at all about how academically qualified somebody is

Couldn't you say the same about like 3.6 vs 3.7? Yet still it creeps up!

 

[bananafish94]

Couldn't you say the same about like 3.6 vs 3.7? Yet still it creeps up!

I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers continue to rise because people will continue to strive for excellent GPAs and perceive that an extraordinarily high GPA is necessary to get into medical school, thus driving up the averages, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there will actually be a difference in the GPA you need to obtain in order to be competitive.

 

[Nommonnom]

I don't think you can make that argument that easily. There should be a lag time because I bankers don't have pre-reqs done. The increase of .3 points in 07-08 would have been before the crisis completely unfolded ,no?

Most of the pool is traditional, the increase would come from students who did the prereqs who actually applied rather than pursued another path.

 

[Lawpy]

It will be easier to try to predict who will win the 2020 presidential election.

I'm betting against @gonnif that Trump will win in 2020 election. A stronger bet is he wins quite handily #rebelling

 

[Goro]

Should I save time and just slit my wrists now???

I'm betting against @gonnif that Trump will win in 2020 election. A stronger bet is he wins quite handily #rebelling

 

[AttendingAdvice]

Sitting at the border of 3.4/3.5, many people have a shot currently at MD with great ECs, upward trend etc. but I want to get an idea of whether that kind of hope will still be there for those applying with those kinds of stats in the years to come, as there are more applicants every year.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile

Surprisingly, some schools have dropped the calculus requirements and more medical school spots are opening up both in the MD and DO sectors. Some would say that getting in is actually getting easier if u look at the trend of the last 15-20 yrs. However, that is not the whole picture. Residency spots are getting harder to come by because the number of medical school spots have expanded but the residency spot have not increased much. A medical degree not backed up by a residency is not very useful...

 

[mwsapphire]

yes as well as the internet in general; information, misinformation, rumor etc. Generally, while medical school acceptance is difficult to obtain, site like SDN make it seem mythically impossible unless your are near perfect. Over the past 10-15 years this has been a factor in the growth of the applicant pool for DO. While DO the rate of growth of DO seats have increased at a much faster pace than MD seats, the applicant pool for DO seats has grown at a rate even faster rate. Part of this has be attributed to solid mid tier candidates declining the MD route believing they are not competitive and applying mostly to DO due to the "myth" information (yes a pun) on SDN and many other sites.

This self-thinning of the MD applicant pool then adds to a feedback loop of increasing selectivity for MD schools and the cycle continues. Hence my conclusion that MD schools have become more selective and thus more competitive. This feeds to the growth of DO applicant pool which makes it more competitive (in terms of applicant to seat ratio) and thus they are becoming more selective

._. Hm

 

[Medic741]

........


*minimizes Excel*


JK true gunners do everything in R.


...

*minimizes R Studio*

This is one of the best things I've read here.

*closes VirtualBox*

Could be an interesting machine learning challenge if you could datamine not only the metrics of amcas apps but also the language... sometimes I think about getting a masters in bioinformatics/compsci instead. Ah well