update: so I did retake hte 2nd year of med school and passed all my courses. I had some family issues that interfered with my coursework the year before but I got that straightened out.
I took Step I and got a 225.
I have gotten passes with no honors in all of my rotations thus far, but I have not done surgery yet. Lets assume that I get a pass in that one with no honors.
Suppose I apply to every single community/non-academic program in the country. I'm talking like 150 programs or something like that.
How many of them woudl give me interviews? Maybe 20?
What if I go to 20 interviews, have a great interview at all of them, and rank all of them on my ROL.
What do you think my chances of matching are?
Like blade is saying, if your heart is truly set on surgery and it does sound like it is, then I would advise you not focus on percentages or chances. There are no hard and fast rules. No one has a magic answer. If someone posted that you have no chance, they would be lying. Program directors and residency selection committees are made up of human beings too, not computers that use some mathematical formula to make the rank list. Focus on doing everything in your power to achieve your goals. You will never know unless you try. If you don't try, you may be forever haunted by regret or "what-ifs." That is how I felt about surgery when I was applying.
First, believe in your heart of hearts that you have all that it takes to become a good surgeon (i.e. dedication, integrity, and humility) and that you will benefit and truly change the lives of your future patients. If you have this inner belief and take this as a truth, it will be easier to convince others come interview time.
Second, it is important to think through your approach to explaining your setback second year and how you came out stronger from enduring adversity. Be prepared to address this during interviews or in your personal statement. Do not make excuses, just explain the facts. I would seek one or two mentors to advise you regarding this delicate issue and the application process itself. In general this should not be your chairman or letter writers, unless you feel you can fully confide in them without altering their opinion of you.
Third, do everything in your power to maximize your chances from this point forward. Doing above average on Step I was a step in the right direction. But, third year is not over for you. Do some soul-searching and analyze why you are only getting passes. Is it the shelf, is it the subjective clinical evaluations? While not honoring surgery doesn't rule you out (I didn't honor it), it can certainly help. Do not settle for a pass and identify what changes you need to make. I am happy to help if you want to PM me.
I would argue you should aim to take Step II early 4th year and rock it, since it will help to diminish the biggest weakness in your application, i.e. question of academic ability.
I think applying to all 150 programs is unnecessary and expensive. This is coming from someone neurotic enough to apply to 59 programs and schedule 44 interviews, although I could only make 28. In hindsight, even this was excessive (although I just wanted to be sure and spared no expense). I would estimate getting 12-15 interviews would be safe bet. The marginal benefit you get from each additional interview is minimal.
Bottom line: I don't want to lie to you. It will be a tough road -- not just the application process, but residency itself. But you should all strive for our dreams -- and if you fail, so be it, but at least you went down swinging and can look back without regrets. Hope this helps...