If you are an undergraduate in need of advice...

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Having read a lot of pessimism in the last few weeks, I thought I would throw some statistics as a confidence boost to anyone who needs them:

Something a lot of SDNers need to hear is that the average for those who are actually competitive (>506 MCAT and >3.6 GPA) the average acceptance is at least greater than 50%. If you fall under the mildly not-competitive block, you are more likely to get in than not! However, below this threshold and it rapidly declines. Above this threshold, it rapidly improves.
All applicant above 3.6/506 make up only a third of the total applicant pool (35,000 out of 92,000 in the last two cycles) but they make up 63% of total acceptances (25,000 out of 40,000). The total acceptance for those above 3.6/506 is 72% (25,000 out of 35,000) Granted, that is skewed by the top heavy stats. However, at that point, even if you are not a 4.0/525, your likelihood of acceptance is more based on having good ECs, your selection of schools, the number of schools you apply to and how well you interview.
But note, numbers below 3.6/506 make up the majority of applicants (the remaining 57,000 out of 92,000) but only 37% of the acceptances (15,000 out of 40,000). And over half of those acceptances (8,600 out of 15,000) that are not >3.6/506 have at least a 3.4/502, with higher yield in the 3.8+ and 514+ blocks. This means that if you don't have at least a 3.6/506 or a high GPA/MCAT to balance out your slightly low GPA/MCAT, your likelihood of admittance is around 7% (6,400 acceptances out of 90,000 total applicants).
Overall, you don't need to be the best of the best of the best to get in to any medical school. In fact, you have better odds of getting an acceptance than a rejection just by being in the 70th percentile. Once you are past that certain threshold, you just need to be realistic about where to apply, kill your essays and ECs. However, if you are below that given threshold, you need to be realistic as well when it comes to what you want to do with your life, as you only have a 7% chance of acceptance, and a 93% chance of disappointment (not to mention being out $2,000 - $3,000).

Have a good one, premeds, and keep on keepin' on!


Source: https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstablea23.pdf

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I think I’ll bump this every couple weeks until the application cycle starts in May. Everyone needs a confidence boost/reality check every now and then.
 
Had an mcat lower and gpa around the same. Got 4 MD interviews and 3 MD acceptances as of now
 
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How? URM? Lucky state?

I find the "URM?" question kinda loaded and rude.

Here are so facts from 2015-2016 from the AAMC. (I did the MCAT conversions since the test changed)

There were 650 white applicants according to AAMC table 24 that got in to MD med schools with an MCAT between 498-502 and gpa 3.6-3.8 and 250 that were black.... lets continue...

There were 750 white applicants that were accepted MD with an MCAT or 498-502 and gpa between 3.8-4.0 and 300 black and hispanic MD acceptances, lets continue...

There were 98 white applicants that were accepted that had an MCAT of 493-496 and gpa between 3.8-4.0 while 78 black MD acceptances.

BOTTOM LINE: You are MORE likely to encounter a white low-stat medical student than ANY other race....just because they don't post on SDN doesn't mean they don't exist. Also, just bc more URM applicants have the courage to reveal their lower stats on doesn't mean they only exist. Do some research please.
 
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I find the "URM?" question kinda loaded and rude.

Here are so facts from 2015-2016 from the AAMC. (I did the MCAT conversions since the test changed)

There were 650 white applicants according to AAMC table 24 that got in to MD med schools with an MCAT between 498-502 and gpa 3.6-3.8 and 250 that were black.... lets continue...

There were 750 white applicants that were accepted MD with an MCAT or 498-502 and gpa between 3.8-4.0 and 300 black and hispanic MD acceptances, lets continue...

There were 98 white applicants that were accepted that had an MCAT of 493-496 and gpa between 3.8-4.0 while 78 black MD acceptances.

BOTTOM LINE: You are MORE likely to encounter a white low-stat medical student than ANY other race....just because they don't post on SDN doesn't mean they don't exist. Also, just bc more URM applicants have the courage to reveal their lower stats on doesn't mean they only exist. Do some research please.
Sheer number tells you nothing of percentages...Which is what the whole “chances” means. Go to LizzyM and set it to 500 MCAT and 3.6 GPA. Not good stats by SDN standards, right? If you are a white applicant, you only have 22% chance of acceptance. If you are a black applicant, it is 75%. So you should take no offense to ‘URM’ as it is a real thing.
 
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*Begins fervently praying that this thread doesn’t turn into an ORM/URM stats-versus-success debate*
 
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Black applicants have a 36% chance overall of getting 1 acceptance MD according AAMC table 24, all white applicants have a 45% acceptance, how do you explain that @samualjhatfield
 
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I'm out this thread, my only point which I hopefully made clear is that you shouldn't assume a person is URM just bc he or she has lower stats, because statistically you are more likely to encounter accepted applicant that's white or ORM with lower stats per AAMC data
 
I'm out this thread, my only point which I hopefully made clear is that you shouldn't assume a person is URM just bc he or she has lower stats, because statistically you are more likely to encounter accepted applicant that's white or ORM with lower stats per AAMC data

Sure thing. Mind responding to my other question about your PSYCH class in the other thread? I'm really curious about it...
 
I find the "URM?" question kinda loaded and rude.

Here are so facts from 2015-2016 from the AAMC. (I did the MCAT conversions since the test changed)

There were 650 white applicants according to AAMC table 24 that got in to MD med schools with an MCAT between 498-502 and gpa 3.6-3.8 and 250 that were black.... lets continue...

There were 750 white applicants that were accepted MD with an MCAT or 498-502 and gpa between 3.8-4.0 and 300 black and hispanic MD acceptances, lets continue...

There were 98 white applicants that were accepted that had an MCAT of 493-496 and gpa between 3.8-4.0 while 78 black MD acceptances.

BOTTOM LINE: You are MORE likely to encounter a white low-stat medical student than ANY other race....just because they don't post on SDN doesn't mean they don't exist. Also, just bc more URM applicants have the courage to reveal their lower stats on doesn't mean they only exist. Do some research please.

This isn't how it works. Of course you are more likely to encounter a low stat white student than URM but thats simply because there are more white med students than URM. Still, the average statistics for acceptance of URM are MUCH lower than for whites and asians. That's why the question was posed to you and I think it's fair.

Also you never answered..?
 
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This isn't how it works. Of course you are more likely to encounter a low stat white student than URM but thats simply because there are more white med students than URM. Still, the average statistics for acceptance of URM are MUCH lower than for whites and asians. That's why the question was posed to you and I think it's fair.

Also you never answered..?

I'm assuming s/he is URM since they clearly got a little offended. Nonetheless, my intention was not to offend. However, it IS true that URMs can have lower stats and get in. a URM with a 3.5 and a 500 MCAT is more likely to get accepted than an ORM with the same stats. It's true
 
Black applicants have a 36% chance overall of getting 1 acceptance MD according AAMC table 24, all white applicants have a 45% acceptance, how do you explain that @samualjhatfield
Because, if you look at that same table, over half of black applicants are at an MCAT of 23 or lower. 23 is the equivalent of a 498, otherwise known as the cutoff for being screened for secondaries at most schools. You can’t get an acceptance if schools don’t see you. But the moment you go 24 or above (ie. 500 equivalent, when you actually received secondaries) black students immediately have an overall acceptance rate of no less than 50%. The same MCAT cutoff for whites has an 18% acceptance rate and the 50% threshold is not reached until a 30 MCAT (510 equivalent).

You can’t generalize numbers, you have to take them in context. Why are there so many lo stats African American applicants? That is probably a socioeconomic conversation not to be had by strangers on a forum. However, the numbers of those who actually have a chance via receiving secondaries speak for themselves.

Overall, URM exists. You can’t deny it. If you do deny it, I can’t begin to fathom why as I am a white straight male without a disadvantaged background and cannot understand.

To anyone new reading, let’s end the URM/ORM *debate* because it is not existent as a debate. URM is a real thing. Just pay attention to the original post as a means of encouragement.
 
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