IMG positions projections

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Jorje286

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I've heard "rumors" that in the next 3 or 4 years, FMG's are likely to be squeezed out of the match because of a drastic increase in US medical graduates. I have no data or anything to corroborate that claim. Does anyone have anything to say about this?
 
Because American medical schools are now growing faster than the number of residencies, I think that there will be zero spots for FMGs in 2017.

You will find a spread sheet attached which is based on the projected number of first year American med students in 2013, a 5% attrition rate at MD & DO schools, AND a 75% reduction in Americans from foreign schools.

If you could photo-shop the spreadsheet that might be helpful for others.
 

Attachments

Thanks. What's your projection for 2014? Is the number of US graduates gradually picking up or there will be a big spike at a certain year?

From a small search I did, the official AAMC policy is to increase the number of physicans without decreasing the number of IMGs. That's probably not the trend at the moment, but it would be surprising if the number of residency positions didn't also drastically increase. (http://www.aamc.org/workforce/workforceqa.pdf)
 
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Thanks. What's your projection for 2014? Is the number of US graduates gradually picking up or there will be a big spike at a certain year?

From a small search I did, the official AAMC policy is to increase the number of physicans without decreasing the number of IMGs. That's probably not the trend at the moment, but it would be surprising if the number of residency positions didn't also drastically increase. (http://www.aamc.org/workforce/workforceqa.pdf)

It looks like the growth in US slots will be linear without a big spike.

In the US residency slots are primarily funded by Medicare taxes. Each spot costs about $110,000 per year. The AAMC may have some influence here but it will be up to the Congress to decide. Because of the fiscal problems faced by the US and the strain on Medicare caused by the aging of the population I do not foresee a big increase in residency slots anytime soon.
 
There will be a lot more DO schools and MD schools filling the gap. Best route for an IMG is to get to know program directors at hospitals and show them your application and work very early. You will get a spot if you keep applying
 
The whole point of opening more medical schools in the States is not to force out IMGs, but to increase the supply of medical doctors to meet demand. Even with the massive amount of IMGs that match every year, there is still a shortage of MDs in our country. Residency positions will increase over time as well.
 
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