Increasing number of pharmacy graduates

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i think any "over-saturation" will affect new graduates the most. that's my position. new graduates may end up stepping into an economic marketplace that wasn't as lucrative as they thought it would be when they first began pharm school. in a saturated market, they will likely be offered a starting pay quite lower than the "average" pharmacist wage across the nation - and this will be somewhat disappointing at first, until they realize the reality. firstly, they are a new grad, and it takes time to ramp up salary. secondly, the market has enough supply that they don't get offered 70K for their first job.


I'm about to graduate into what would already be considered a saturated market (two pharmacy schools in the city) and so far I've been offered jobs by two of the major retail chains (from what I've heard/experienced the only two retail outlets that are hiring at all in this city).

The pay is certainly based on regional demand. If I were willing to move to an area that is more in need of pharmacists they would pay me more, but there really isn't any "ramping up in salary" involved in retail pharmacy. As a first year staff pharmacist my base salary will be the same as every other staff pharmacist that works in this area.

However, even though this area is already saturated the pay is about to increase again in a month or so -- new grads included. As someone else pointed out, they don't offer lower starting salaries, they just don't offer the jobs.

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this thread was indeed getting somewhat tiring. good reply.

i think any "over-saturation" will affect new graduates the most. that's my position. new graduates may end up stepping into an economic marketplace that wasn't as lucrative as they thought it would be when they first began pharm school. in a saturated market, they will likely be offered a starting pay quite lower than the "average" pharmacist wage across the nation - and this will be somewhat disappointing at first, until they realize the reality. firstly, they are a new grad, and it takes time to ramp up salary. secondly, the market has enough supply that they don't get offered 70K for their first job.

i'm quite sure the average wage of a pharmacist working in a small city (where they're the only show in town) is higher than in the big cities. again - it does come down to supply and demand. if that lone-pharmacist-city gets a second pharmacist the following year, we can reasonably expect that the first pharmacist's salary is at risk of going down, because his monopoly has now changed into competitive environment.

so anyways - getting back to the thread. its important that the educators/decision makers be apprised of the economic environment. currently, its healthy - but if they over-build new schools/new enrollment just to meet the commercial market TODAY, there is a risk there will be an over-supply at some point in the future.

my argument is that this "over-supply" WON'T cause new pharmacists to go unemployed, their starting salaries will simply be lower than in previous years.

You are dead wrong. If your theory is true, then every job where it's fully staffed, the salary is at a risk of going down. But that does not happen.

And if there is an oversupply, the new pharmacist just won't find a job in that region..rather find it elsewhere.
 
You are dead wrong. If your theory is true, then every job where it's fully staffed, the salary is at a risk of going down. But that does not happen.

my argument is that this "over-supply" WON'T cause NEW pharmacists to go unemployed, their starting salaries will simply be lower than in previous years.

this does happen.

ask new chiropractic school graduates.

heck - that fully-staffed work environment u describe, i could hire a new pharmacist at one-day a week if he can't find work elsewhere.




edit: actually - new chiros both take lower pay AND end up unemployed...
 
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this

And if there is an oversupply, the new pharmacist just won't find a job in that region..rather find it elsewhere.

is answered here.

The pay is certainly based on regional demand. If I were willing to move to an area that is more in need of pharmacists they would pay me more,

the corollary, is that if u go to an area of lower demand, the pay is less.


we're never going to end this debate, unless u concede the following:

up until recently, UToronto graduated 120 students a year. they now graduate 240 students a year. do u concede that it is possible (likely) that students graduating in the class of 240 will have starting offers slightly LESS than if the class remained at 120 per year? afterall - the same number of pharmacies vying for a smaller number of graduates. graduates can be picky where they want to work. starting offers will be higher because only the most well-to-do pharmacies will be able to hire one. the top 120 offers get taken.

the corollary, is with more graduates, there is more supply, less competition among the pharmacies to get themselves a pharmacist, and starting offers will likely include some lower ones. afterall, 240 grads have to find jobs, and the top 121-240 offers are ALSO therefore going to be considered.

the average "offered starting salaries" ranked 1 through 240, will result in two averages, if we separate them into two groups. i.e the average for offers (1) 1-120, and (2) 121-240. the 2nd group (121-240) of offers don't even get looked at if we only have a class of 120. but that's not the case. we have a class of 240. so the 2nd group's average "offered starting salary" will get mulled over by those extra 120 students. the way i have set this up, the average of (1) will be higher than the average of (2). this type of mathematics should be comprehensible to a 12 year old.

so. UToronto 120 grads vs UToronto 240 grads. which grads receive higher starting job offers on average?


the answer will be UToronto 120 grads. do u agree?
 
btw - just so that u don't think i'm making this up or i'm the only one who thinks this way.



i've spoke with recent UToronto grads from the 120 era, right before they started increasing enrollment. they've told me they are unhappy about the increasing enrollment because its leading to too many pharmacists.

u aren't suggesting that they are complaining that their salaries are going up because of the change, are u?
 
14 - Altho you've given this a lot of thought, I think your fears are going to prevent you from having a fulfilling career within pharmacy.

I'd also say you might want to avoid chiropractic (altho I would have advised this for lots and lots of different reasons & none of them based on job availability or income).

I don't think Zpak will concede your numbers & what occurs at the University of Toronto has little to do with what occurs in the US. Our healthcare systems are different. And, altho I do know & welcome Canadian grads to work in the US...the numbers here just don't reflect that.

From the most recent NABP annual survey, the total # of licensed pharmacists grew nationwide by 3.5% from 7/05-7/06. Since many pharmacists are licensed in more than one state, it is perhaps more appropriate to look at the # of pharmacists with in-state addresses. This grew by 3.7% (the #s appear as though there is a discrepancy, but the "n" here is different). Likewise, a total of 3,024 new pharmacies opened in the same time period (a gain of 3.7%) - so just looking at retail - a wash.

I don't want to scare you off from CA, but CA alone had a gain of nearly a thousand pharmacies here alone. AND - worse yet - 9% of ALL pharmacy licenses are now granted by the California State Board of Pharmacy. Some states lost pharmacists - VA (3%), DC (14%)....but, the declines showed no particular pattern.

But, if you look at salaries here in CA - where you might be the most frightened by the #'s - our salaries have not gone down - for new hires or for those of us in the same positions. In fact, we have received increases with more likely during the later months of the summer.

None of this really matters since it is not the # of pharmacies which open - for retail, it is more the #, payor mix & type of rxs - not the # of brick & motar stores. For hospital, it is the pt census, payor mix & type of hospital that determines the staffing. One which has lots of speciality areas (PICU, a big oncology center, transplant &/or burn units) will have lots more ftes as well as lots more specialized ftes - all which will keep salaries up.

But....I think you're still fearful of having a job once you complete your education. No one can properly overcome that fear except yourself.

I hope you find that which gives you comfort & mental stimulation as a career, but I don't think you'll find it in pharmacy.
 
btw - just so that u don't think i'm making this up or i'm the only one who thinks this way.



i've spoke with recent UToronto grads from the 120 era, right before they started increasing enrollment. they've told me they are unhappy about the increasing enrollment because its leading to too many pharmacists.

u aren't suggesting that they are complaining that their salaries are going up because of the change, are u?

You are pathetic. FIRST of all, no profession is 100% secure. Name me one profession that is 100% secure. If you're talking about supply and demand then no field is immune to it. But if you're talking the odds of a field being secure then pharmacy is one of the best. Better than any healthcare field right now in my opinion. Go back to Canada and their socialized healthcare system then. The government must provide you with security right?
 
nevermind.




btw:

You are pathetic.

and u are an idiot. thanks for contributing nothing to this discussion. who the heck is talking about 100% security? why don't u try reading this thread before posting this asinine reply.
 
my argument is that this "over-supply" WON'T cause NEW pharmacists to go unemployed, their starting salaries will simply be lower than in previous years.


If there is an oversupply of a pharmacist. The new pharmacist simply won't have a job. And if you think an employer will simply get rid of the experienced and already trained pharmacist to hire the new grad at a lower salary, then you simply have never worked in a pharmacy.

Hiring a pharmacist isn't like hiring and training a fast food joint worker. A new grad needs 6 months to a full year at a hospital to become an effective hospital pharmacist.

Show me a report where Chiropractor's salary has decreased.

btw..are you in pharmacy school? pharmacist? Healthcare practitioner?
 
btw - just so that u don't think i'm making this up or i'm the only one who thinks this way.



i've spoke with recent UToronto grads from the 120 era, right before they started increasing enrollment. they've told me they are unhappy about the increasing enrollment because its leading to too many pharmacists.

u aren't suggesting that they are complaining that their salaries are going up because of the change, are u?


Did too many pharmacists in Toronto lead to a salary decrease??
 
nevermind.




btw:



and u are an idiot. thanks for contributing nothing to this discussion. who the heck is talking about 100% security? why don't u try reading this thread before posting this asinine reply.

This is what I'm hearing from you,
"Whine, Whine, Whine, i'm not a pharmacist but i can predict what's going to happen w/ Econ 101, whine some more with jealousy/bitterness" :laugh:
Dude, have you ever worked in a pharmacy IN THE US?
 
oh and if you haven't noticed. There's these ppl called baby-boomers that for some reason are going to live a lot longer. Hmm....nope they won't cause any increase in demand for healthcare-providers according to Econ101. I guess that's why all medical and nursing schools are increasing enrollment just to screw their graduates out of jobs too. :confused:
 
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hey everyone...
It doesnt matter. This guy is not a pharmacist. We do not have to explain anything to him. He is not here because he wants to pursue pharmacy but just to prove that his econ 101 is excellent and his job as an OD is not satisfying enough (money wise) "wink"-am i right?
Goodjob 14...who cares, mind your own "optic stuff" in Canada.
:laugh:
 
ur right.

i just came in to shoot the breeze.

if u look at my first post, i was just stating an opinion. that certainly wasn't out of hand.

i didn't realize pharms would so heavily deny that pharm is impermeable to over-saturation.
 
This is a good discussion, but the insults and discussing of other posters' motivations are inappropriate. Twelve hour time out for the thread and hopefully, we'll be back on track in the morning.


Edit: Thursday morning

I'm re-opening this a little early because I have to be somewhere.
This discussion should continue without the insults.
 
This is a good discussion, but the insults and discussing of other posters' motivations are inappropriate. Twelve hour time out for the thread and hopefully, we'll be back on track in the morning.


Edit: Thursday morning

I'm re-opening this a little early because I have to be somewhere.
This discussion should continue without the insults.

You know you made die this thread
:mad:
 
So bring it back to life! Post something intellectually stimulating. :)

You had good intentions, but your tactic of using a "time-out" was a bit too parental for some of us and the timing of it was unfortunate.

I think we've all made our points, particularly those who actually know the profession.

I cannot speak for anyone but myself, but if anyone has any further comments or thoughts I think it would be more productive if it were addressed in a differerent thread. And, altho you probably didn't intend to give a mild "swat" to Konkan....he was the OP & his questions were intellectually stimulating.
 
It is possible to create a churn of pharmacists, but that usually occurs with a severe glut (excess of +20% in populations) in looking back at my econ notes. It was especially important to me, because I faced this during the 90's in the technology sector, where fresh from the farm geeks started working for less (and generally screwing things up for the rest of us). Look at where corporate IT in the US is now.

Will it happen if every school doubled their graduation rate, no, it's unrealistic. What would happen is the highly prized areas would suffer a salary stagnation or possible reduction and a greater percentage of "undesirable" locations would be filled, but certainly not all of them. As long as states require a pharmacist to push the scripts out the door and corporate Rx's want to explode, there's going to be a demand. There are two problems on the horizon. Remote Pharmacists and bulk mail order shops. They are problems where the biggest need in pharmacy is right now, the community/retail setting.

If Corporate Pharmacy could get by with having a "product specialist" behind the counter for OTC and someone remotely checking prescriptions, they would do it in a second. Is not Walgreens already remote pharmacist checking now? It allows remote pharmacist to release(??) the script and review the product. (I know not the exact mechanism, but I know the techs I go to school with both have had external pharmacists do everything but counsel the patient.) Their intent is to maximize the utilization of their pharmacist, call center pharmacy is a distinct possibility. Which leads me to mail order shops...

As the technology progresses that companies are able to turn out greater prescriptions per pharmacist (PPP) for bulk meds that will reduce the demand for pharmacists. Once company already does 1000+PPP (in an 8 hour day) by using scanning technology (OCR and LASER), imagine the damage that shop can do to recurring scripts, something this country is all about. In looking at work similar to this for corporate law, I'd assume maximum throughput would top at 1700 or so, that's what we could reasonable expect on document review and it's the same general concept at this point.

Personally I would like to see a +1 year for pharmacy, basically the old bachelors of pharmacy +1 year to get them up to basic pharmacy knowledge. And a separate PharmD program that's more similar to Dental/Optometry programs 3 or 4 years of requirements and 3 or 4 years of schooling plus experiential learning. Then top that with residencies if you want to specialize. I would also like to incorporate a senior project required to graduate. Some research, education curriculum, etc that would tie everything together. The bachelors +1 would have a limited field with which to work (think primarily retail and less "traditional clinical settings").

Oddly enough, I think Mommy Dearest was actually being nicer then she needed (or should have been), calling someone an idiot in professional forum would have likely been an instalock for me, had I been in her shoes. It's unfortunately that the ideas spread here, by idealists, sadists and the lofty people in the know *cough* had to be waylaid for a few hours, but hey, such is life when the average age of people entering pharmacy school is 23; heck I'm not even sure if the average age of maturity here is 23. :smuggrin:
 
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=383175
An interesting thread from the pre-pharm section. We not only need to worry about the current schools increasing their enrollment, but we also need to worry about all of the new schools that are opening/trying to open.

Looking at the AACP website there's 8 new schools that have been granted affiliate status and it looks like a lot more that are trying.
 
Does anyone have any hard numbers on increased enrollment? I ask because my alma mater (Pitt) did not want or care to increase.

When I was a p3, the incoming p1 class only had 60-ish students (my class had about 90). And not because there were no applicants. Pitt's stance is that they'll take quality over quantity. They had no quota to fill.....and had no problem with lower enrollment.

edit--I forgot to add that I was a p3 fall of 2000-spring 2001.....at a peak of the shortage.
 
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