Interest in Dentistry in Decline!

[doc toothache]

The frenzy of interest in dental schools appears to be declining. This should be good news for those of you getting ready for the 09 race starting in May. The AADSAS number of applications for 2008 has dropped by 265 (from 11365 to 11100). The number of applicants taking the DAT has dropped from 8936 in 2006 to 8897 in 2007. A similar trend is seen with TMDSAS where the number of applicants dropped by 56, from 894 in 2007 to 838 in 2008.

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[doc3232]

The frenzy of interest in dental schools appears to be declining. This should be good news for those of you getting ready for the 09 race starting in May. The AADSAS number of applications for 2008 has dropped by 265 (from 11365 to 11100). The number of applicants taking the DAT has dropped from 8936 in 2006 to 8897 in 2007. A similar trend is seen with TMDSAS where the number of applicants dropped by 56, from 894 in 2007 to 838 in 2008.

I think this decline is just a year thing, it will rocket back up soon IMO.

 

[small]

Hmm, don't think I'd call a slight drop over one year a trend, but it will be interesting to follow.

 

[armorshell]

One data point = absolute fact beyond any doubt

 

[doc toothache]

One data point = absolute fact beyond any doubt

Hmm, don't think I'd call a slight drop over one year a trend, but it will be interesting to follow.

Absolutely correct, but then that was not the gist of the post. Nice of you to notice.

 

[Frederico Albin]

I think this decline will be even bigger once some of these new schools open up within the next 2 years.

 

[doc3232]

Absolutely correct, but then that was not the jest of the post. Nice of you to notice.

??? please explain.

 

[doc toothache]

??? please explain.

Which part needs explanation?

 

[Lopyswine]

i think there has been so much "talk" about how dental school applications have been on such a rise that it may have scared off a few people this year.

With more schools opening, I think more people will be applying than ever before.

 

[Lurchdubious]

i, for one, am planning to reapply....just to pad the numbers.

 

[blankguy]

It's cyclical. Up to now the numbers were on the upswing.

 

[SugarNaCl]

Less applicants = less competition when we get out!!! Anyhow, I agree with other posters, this is a slight drop at best given the numbers you quoted. I don't even know if it is statistically significant

 

[TempleDMDKrazd]

are there more data points to show that it is cyclical? if this is true then there is a strategy to applying to dental school. you will greatly increase your chance of getting into dental school when you apply when its at the valley of the data points...

 

[Shunwei]

Less applicants = less competition when we get out!!! Anyhow, I agree with other posters, this is a slight drop at best given the numbers you quoted. I don't even know if it is statistically significant

Is that really true? The # of graduates per entering class is fixed, so fewer applicants will reduce the compeition going in, but coming out would be the same.

 

[doc3232]

Which part needs explanation?

You said I didn't understand the gist of the post.
so please explain what I didn't understand.

 

[bodiddely]

Aadsas also closed for applications earlier this year, which may account for some of the drop in applicants.

 

[topdent1]

this is really odd because the statistics at Minnesota show an increase in the number of applicants each year since 2000. I guess it depends on the school though.

 

[tuan209]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/business/28teeth.html?scp=1&sq=dental&st=nyt

Here is an interesting article by the NY Times. According to the Times, the number of dentists has been been flat since the 1990s, and it is forecast to decline over the next decade.

 

[nwdmd]

statmaster flex may be on to something. Check out the link below(slide 4). It looks like during the past 50+ years, every time there is a decline, it continues for at least a few years (cyclical).

http://www.aamc.org/members/gsa/cosfa/2007pdc/career_choice.pdf

i guess all of us '09ers could change history?

in summary, i just wasted 10 minutes

 

[DrSmiles12]

The frenzy of interest in dental schools appears to be declining. This should be good news for those of you getting ready for the 09 race starting in May. The AADSAS number of applications for 2008 has dropped by 265 (from 11365 to 11100). The number of applicants taking the DAT has dropped from 8936 in 2006 to 8897 in 2007. A similar trend is seen with TMDSAS where the number of applicants dropped by 56, from 894 in 2007 to 838 in 2008.

HOLY COW! Thats amazing! For those ppl reapplying next year there is going to be a lot better odds. 1/11100 as opposed to 1/11365! Congrats to those applying.

 

[MB111]

HOLY COW! Thats amazing! For those ppl reapplying next year there is going to be a lot better odds. 1/11100 as opposed to 1/11365! Congrats to those applying.

(me!!)

 

[bounty101]

statmaster flex may be on to something. Check out the link below(slide 4). It looks like during the past 50+ years, every time there is a decline, it continues for at least a few years (cyclical).

http://www.aamc.org/members/gsa/cosfa/2007pdc/career_choice.pdf

i guess all of us '09ers could change history?

in summary, i just wasted 10 minutes

A few slides in there have got me thinking again about a trend we may see in the future. I'm wondering what effect the large number of women entering the field will have on the number of actively practicing dentists. Women now make up 1/2 of applicants (for those born post 1981) and are projected to comprise 30% of the workforce by 2020 (presently 16%). Is it logical to assume female dentists are more inclined to cut back working hours, or even stop working all together, for family purposes? The only evidence I have is anecdotal, but it seems like a valid possibility. The female dentists I know are also all married to partners that are likewise as successful or more so, which frees up the responsibility of being the breadwinner. What do you all think? Any females applying, have you already considered working less or retiring early to have a family?
If this is the case it could really exacerbate the shortage from the looming retirement of baby-boomers. There would be an obvious advantage for those remaining in the workforce (less competition) but disadvantages for patients with less care.

 

[doc toothache]

It's cyclical. Up to now the numbers were on the upswing.

 

[blankguy]

I think we might be entering a period where the numbers may plateau. The number of applicants can't be going up forever. If there is going to be a decline it probably will be a delayed decline since the economy is in such a sorry state right now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think we might be entering a period where the numbers may plateau. The number of applicants can't be going up forever. If there is going to be a decline it probably will be a delayed decline since the economy is in such a sorry state right now.

That's definitely a GOOD explanation! I know a few people who decided to do away with applying to dental school & go right to work because of financial insecurity.

Me? Well, I don't care how much dental school costs...I'd still go...even if it costs a million bucks! haha. I'm dedicated! (i speak for myself though).

 

[airsimon]

That's definitely a GOOD explanation! I know a few people who decided to do away with applying to dental school & go right to work because of financial insecurity.

Me? Well, I don't care how much dental school costs...I'd still go...even if it costs a million bucks! haha. I'm dedicated! (i speak for myself though).

Trust me, you would care if you had a family to look after. I think this economic crisis we are in is a big player in a slight application decline. I think it will continue to go down slowly over the next few years.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Trust me, you would care if you had a family to look after. I think this economic crisis we are in is a big player in a slight application decline. I think it will continue to go down slowly over the next few years.

haha! yeah most def. I was just exaggerating....but i'll do anything it takes to do something i love, ya know.

 

[ChrisM07]

Is 265 less applicants really going to lessen the competition though? To me 265 less is like the difference between 1,000,000 dollars and 1,000,004. I mean that's 265 less applicants across the country. If it were 265 less per a certain school I would think it would make more of a difference. Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[blankguy]

If the economy is in a rut more people tend to apply to school.

 

[bounty101]

If the economy is in a rut more people tend to apply to school.

That's what I was thinking. The opportunity cost of school is less when the economy is down. What better time to be in school than when unemployment is high?

 

[t man]

The frenzy of interest in dental schools appears to be declining. This should be good news for those of you getting ready for the 09 race starting in May. The AADSAS number of applications for 2008 has dropped by 265 (from 11365 to 11100). The number of applicants taking the DAT has dropped from 8936 in 2006 to 8897 in 2007. A similar trend is seen with TMDSAS where the number of applicants dropped by 56, from 894 in 2007 to 838 in 2008.

A 2.3% drop from a record high... not sure "decline" is the word I'd use.

 

[qwerty86]

approximately 200 less applicants is a decline and thus reducing competition? This must be a joke.

 

[Montserrat]

Could be at the beginning of a downtrend in a cyclical cycle, or an aberrant data point. Either way though, it's not terrible news.

If anything, upon hearing of this news, some people might read this as an opportunity and start reapplying... remember the old theory of rational expectations that earned Muth and Lucas a Nobel prize ? I wouldn't be surprised if this information was leaked so as to compensate for any drop in application numbers and any acquired fees.

 

[airsimon]

HOLY COW! Thats amazing! For those ppl reapplying next year there is going to be a lot better odds. 1/11100 as opposed to 1/11365! Congrats to those applying.

lol

 

[doc toothache]

A 2.3% drop from a record high... not sure "decline" is the word I'd use.

Let's just call it a downward inclination.

Incidentally, the record high was in the mid 70's at 15,734.

 

[UCSF2012]

Since when are fewer applicants not a decrease in applicants? One fewer applicant is enough to constitute a decline, but the question is whether it's enough to make any generalizations or predictions about the future. But that's not important. On to more pressing matters... I wonder what life in San Francisco would be like. Hangin' with hippies and homosexuals and all...

 

[54807]

The frenzy of interest in dental schools appears to be declining. This should be good news for those of you getting ready for the 09 race starting in May. The AADSAS number of applications for 2008 has dropped by 265 (from 11365 to 11100). The number of applicants taking the DAT has dropped from 8936 in 2006 to 8897 in 2007. A similar trend is seen with TMDSAS where the number of applicants dropped by 56, from 894 in 2007 to 838 in 2008.

eh.....i wouldn't read into those numbers. It doesn't take too many idiots like me to apply to 16+ schools to throw off your 'trends'.

 

[doc toothache]

eh.....i wouldn't read into those numbers. It doesn't take too many idiots like me to apply to 16+ schools to throw off your 'trends'.

Multiple applications will have an effect on the "trend" in total number of applications and little or no effect on the number of applicants. Since it is unclear how or if the ADEA takes into account the three non AADSAS schools and Texas residents (TMDSAS) who also choose to apply out of state, the total number of applicants might be affected. Whether or not those numbers (multiple applicants) would be significant is an open question. The fact remains that the three indicators, AADSAS applications, DAT examinees, and TMDSAS applicants show a decrease in numbers.

 

[SugarNaCl]

Is that really true? The # of graduates per entering class is fixed, so fewer applicants will reduce the compeition going in, but coming out would be the same.

Depends how you look at it. The more applicants, the higher the GPA average will likely be. The lower the GPA average of entering classes, the lower the competition to get good grades comparatively... if you are looking to specialize, this could be good. So yes, I stand by my statement

 

[bounty101]

Depends how you look at it. The more applicants, the higher the GPA average will likely be. The lower the GPA average of entering classes, the lower the competition to get good grades comparatively... if you are looking to specialize, this could be good. So yes, I stand by my statement

I'm not so sure about your assumption. It could be that the people not applying are those with uncompetitive stats. As the average GPA and DAT has risen over the years, some begin to realize they have zero chance and drop out of the program. So long as the grade averages of enrollees continue to trend up, it's still going to be increasingly competitive for specialties.

 

[blankguy]

Why make a big fuss over this? The number of applications have been rising for quite some time so it was long overdue for a drop. As I recall this rising trend started around late 90's.

 

[doc toothache]

this is really odd because the statistics at Minnesota show an increase in the number of applicants each year since 2000. I guess it depends on the school though.

The increase in Minn is not unusual. In fact every ds in the nation had an increase in the number of applicants except Louisiana, U of Tenn and Baylor. Louisiana is a public school and it caters to residents. Why UT dropped in the number of applicants is unclear since a large percentage are out of state. As for Baylor, one suspects that the fact that Baylor, after being a private institution for a quarter century, became affiliated with TAMU in 1999. The change in attitude toward non residents appears to be finally trickling down to the applicants. DS are seeing an increase in the number of applicants because the number applications per applicant has been steadily increasing.

Is 265 less applicants really going to lessen the competition though? To me 265 less is like the difference between 1,000,000 dollars and 1,000,004. I mean that's 265 less applicants across the country. If it were 265 less per a certain school I would think it would make more of a difference. Correct me if I'm wrong.

The effect of any decrease in the number of applicants on the degree of competitiveness depends on whether we are dealing with the top or bottom 10% of the applicant pool. The stats for the upcoming class may tell the story, although it not likely that they will have a major impact. As you say, such a small drop would be insignificant for the majority of the ds. However, this is not about the impact of the drop as it is about the change that we are witnessing.

 

[doc toothache]

We are in agreement that one data point a trend does not make. The question of the day then is do we need 2, 3 or...n points to have a trend? Or is the problem that we do not have at least 2 points going in the same direction? Since the implication is that we need to have more points, in the case where we have multiple points and we end up with a sinusoidal graph would we call this a trend less trend ? Incidentally, in this case we have two points, not one point. The only time there was only one point was the first year the DAT was given and the first time AADSAS and TMDSAS had centralized application service.

 

[doc toothache]

statmaster flex may be on to something. Check out the link below(slide 4). It looks like during the past 50+ years, every time there is a decline, it continues for at least a few years (cyclical).
http://www.aamc.org/members/gsa/cosfa/2007pdc/career_choice.pdf

Excellent source.

Aadsas also closed for applications earlier this year, which may account for some of the drop in applicants.

That might account for a drop in the AADSAS applicants but not on the TMDSAS or on the DAT.

Could be at the beginning of a downtrend in a cyclical cycle, or an aberrant data point. Either way though, it's not terrible news.

If anything, upon hearing of this news, some people might read this as an opportunity and start reapplying... remember the old theory of rational expectations that earned Muth and Lucas a Nobel prize ? I wouldn't be surprised if this information was leaked so as to compensate for any drop in application numbers and any acquired fees.

Got to love a good conspiracy theory. And what better place to leak info than on SDN?

 

[panzer]

I think this decline will be even bigger once some of these new schools open up within the next 2 years.

What schools since I didn't see anything on ADA website? Schools like northwestern and loyola, for example, closed because of lack of interest couple of years back.

 

[Hopin']

I think we might be entering a period where the numbers may plateau. The number of applicants can't be going up forever. If there is going to be a decline it probably will be a delayed decline since the economy is in such a sorry state right now.

I wish this were true in oil prices these days...

 

[PDizzle]

On to more pressing matters... I wonder what life in San Francisco would be like. Hangin' with hippies and homosexuals and all...

Quite nice actually. Especially the hippies that are also homosexual.

 

[slick90210]

Personally, I find the fact that the number of applicants didn't go UP more important then the slight decrease. I had a feeling the numbers were going to continue to rise since the populations increasing and the increase in high school graduates. Thankfully we won't have to worry about 3.8GPA averages and 22AA in the near future

 

[dmdbyme]

If the economy is in a rut more people tend to apply to school.

I rather invest $$ for myself at the "R-period".

 

[blankguy]

Unless you are in such a dire straights or have family to support school is a good option to wait out a recession. Also my take on the numbers decline is that it will not affect the quality of applicants. The quality of applicants have been going up to the point that GPAwise it is almost neck to neck with med school applicants at certain schools. It is still possible for the average GPA to go up while the overall number of applicants levels off or drops.