I will have to disagree with you. Since you cannot predict the future and don't know exactly were you stand within the large pool of applicants, applying to more schools ensures you will be accepted to an leat one dental school.
I applied to 15, dropped one and now have 14. Even though I got my application out in time (early september) AADSAS managed to hold up the process by dropping the ball with the letters of rec. Long story short, my appication was not complete until middle of december at most of the shcools. You can't predict that as you appy! Because of the delay, I might not even get a chance to interview at some of the shools, even though my grades and DAT are competitive, even above the school's average.
Also, each year more and more students apply. Call a school and find out first hand how many more students applied this year compare to last. BUT the number of spots remains the same, the number of schools remains the same! (actually went down by 1, Hawaii).
So far NO ONE during my interviews or while talking to the admissons office on the phone told me I applied to too many schools. In Arizona I was asked where else I applied, so I told them about a few, and then the conversation ****ed to talking about California. My point: from my experience, the schools did not care that I applied to 15 schools. They know and understand they their school is not the only one you applied to. For that reason Arizona will even give you a status update on the phone if you got an acceptance and want to see where you stand.
I have several firends that applied to Medical schools, and one of them applied to close to 30 schools. She got into her top chioce, but nobody discredited her for applying to so many schools. Some schools just asked why so many, and she had a good answer for that already prepared.
APPLY AWAY, check out the schools, but don't be afraid to select a few schools as a back up. You never know...