psa15

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Hello guys,

I was just wondering if NBME is still accurate in the prediction of the actual USMLE step 1 score. I came up with guys who had the exam in the summer and eventually achieved a very lower score (>20-30 difference) compared to their NBME predictions (250s-270s). Do you have any recent experience? Anyone who had the exam recently?

Thank you all in advance.
 

mcloaf

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It seems to be relatively accurate if you read the current experiences being posted in this forum.
 
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scoKraz4

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Some people also don't take the test under standard testing conditions.. Maybe looking up answers, take it with a resource right there, etc. So their score is inflated.
 
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Spikebd

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I scored 14 points above my highest nbme and I presume it's because I took my nbme exams under testing conditions. I have to think a lot of people look up a few questions and that messes with the scale. Everyone is different though.
 
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psa15

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Thank you all guys for your replies!

Pardon me if I am off-topic, but for those who had the test in the last 3-4 months, what do you think has changed most (if anything) about the exam after the number of Qs changed to 44?
 

davezhan

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Aug 10, 2011
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^OP no offense but your question is a silly one. You would have had to take step 1 twice - once when it was 46 questions and then once when it was changed to 44 - in order to really know the difference. But to satisfy your curiosity, compared to NBMEs, the test in its entirety was less straightforward and more difficult. However, it was also easier than UWorld. In terms of difficulty overall, I would rank from most to least difficult:

UWorld
Step 1
NBME

For some perspective, my UWorld overall second run-through was 69%
Step 1 score was 240
Best NBME score was 254; last 2 NBME average was 243
My real score correlated almost exactly with the average of my last 2 NBMEs taken 2-3 weeks before the real deal.
 
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psa15

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^OP no offense but your question is a silly one. You would have had to take step 1 twice - once when it was 46 questions and then once when it was changed to 44 - in order to really know the difference. But to satisfy your curiosity, compared to NBMEs, the test in its entirety was less straightforward and more difficult. However, it was also easier than UWorld. In terms of difficulty overall, I would rank from most to least difficult:

UWorld
Step 1
NBME

For some perspective, my UWorld overall second run-through was 69%
Step 1 score was 240
Best NBME score was 254; last 2 NBME average was 243
My real score correlated almost exactly with the average of my last 2 NBMEs taken 2-3 weeks before the real deal.
Thank you for your reply.
I know it was a weird q...
 

Psai

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I scored within 5 points of my nbme average for step 1. From what I've read, it seems to be very accurate for the majority of people.
 

davezhan

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Aug 10, 2011
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^Psai, you should add the disclaimer that this only holds true if you take all NBMEs under strict testing conditions. I have read of people with NBME scores in the 220s and 230s fail the real deal, and that is very very unlikely unless they were checking answers while taking their NBMEs or taking them with no time limit. Of course, test day anxiety or fatigue can also contribute but I would not expect a 30-40 point drop between NBME averages of 2+ NBMEs compared to the real deal.
 

davezhan

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You'd be surprised at the number of people (albeit small), who do not have common sense -> speaking from personal experience here
 

fastlane

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I scored 10 points less than my average. Sucks balls but still not a bad score. The NBMEs will give you a good ballpark range +/- 15 points.