obviously i'm no stats guru, but lets take a look at the '03 stats

AAMC Stats
AAMC Stats II
There are 4000 total Cali applicants and about 2000 matriculate somewhere

Out of all 4000 applicants:

20% or 800 matriculate in-state (nat'l Ave=30% but on par with "West Region"=20)

28% or 1100 Out of state (higher % than nat'l Ave=17%)

52% or 2100 get dinged (=nat'l ave).

Bottom line:

YES, less calis matriculate in-state than vs. the national average. Perhaps the simplest answer is "few spots, many applicants". Should we K.I.S.S.? If you look at the numbers, 800 matriculate in state. If Cali were to follow the nat'l in -state matriculation of 30%, then ~1200 would stay in Cali. thus, an alternate explanation may be that ~400 (1200 minus 800) cali students

**choose** to attend private schools over UC schools (gasp - someone would choose private over a UC school??). Of course, that "choice" might be due to no other alternative. A feasible explanation is that ~half (who knows? n=200) by selectively chose to attend an out of state private (top 10s, scholarships, spouses, wanting an east coast experience) and the other ~half (n=200) werent accepted into a cali school.

Oh, BTW:

MCAT GPA by State
MCAT GPA Scores:

All Cali applicants: V8.8 P9.7 B9.9 (28.4) 3.42

Matriculating Cali (in+out): 9.6 10.6 10.8 (30.9) 3.59

All Nat'l Applicants averages: V8.8 P9.0 B9.3 (27.1) 3.47

Matriculating Nat'l averages: 9.5 9.9 10.2 (29.6) 3.62

It may be slightly harder to stay in Cali, but it appears that on a national level, the average cali applicant is neither stronger/ weaker, nor advantaged/ disadvantaged. Its obvious that cali applicants need to distinguish themselves somehow, since pure numbers wont get you noticed in a pool of n=4000 (unless, perhaps your a standard deviation above the averages?). Hell, that applies to anyone.

the average cali applicant may need to apply to more schools, but i dont think that ridiculous applications (n=90) are warranted, based on these numbers.

an 'oops' disclaimer:

those numbers are fudged since stanford, loma, usc are private. oh well. stanford/loma take 40- 50% cali, usc takes 80%.