Wait, you're saying these abusive groups will be harder to find? How will Medicare changes decrease the number of these?
This may be long, so please stay with me...
There are many factors that will play into this. At first, private groups will see a boom once uninsured patients begin to pay because of the new law. Then the cuts will set in and essentially equalize emergency medicine reimbursement while other specialties lose revenue. This will drive private practices to close their doors to Medicare and medicaid, which will send more patients into the ER and increase each doctor's volume, leading to increasing malpractice costs with an overall lower reimbursement. Add in the flawed SGR formula that has already caused a 21% cut across the board this year and reimbursement will be even less.
Hospitals will likely be forced to bundle their admissions, which means that insurers will only pay one fixed fee per admission and diagnosis. This means that every specialist involved with a patient's care will be fighting over their portion of the fixed amount, likely leaving the scraps to the emergency doctor. This will begin to impact the more lucrative emergency medicine groups who have had stable contracts with their hospitals and enjoy a stipend. Likely, these stipends will no longer be included in hospital budgets as hospitals begin to lose income and revenue. In some cases, stipends can account for up to a third of an EM practice's annual budget.
Finally, as costs of practice continue to rise, including malpractice premiums, groups will face an ever-increasing battle to spend less each year. Groups with a high portion of medicare and Medicaid patients will be the first to fall, and will likely sell out to larger contract management groups such as those mentioned above to gain a stable salary and save on economy of scale.
The groups dependent on hospital stipends will also likely suffer the same fate, as their stipends become reduced and senior partners decide to sell out.
Finally, with the insurance regulations, increasing malpractice costs, and decreasing regulations, it will become nearly impossible for new private EM groups to start and remain viable corporations.
We may begin to see a large resurgence in the Hospital Employee model, which will likely effect many markets as well.
Sadly, the ability of the emergency medicine group to survive and profit, like most other physician groups, has taken a large blow. In my area alone, I do not know how many private practices will survive this summer.
Please also note that this is not a political commentary, just a reaslitic view of what is already happening. That being said, i don't think these changes are a matter of "if" but of "when". The best advice I can give to those of you looking for jobs is to get a good understanding of the payor mix where you interview, because I believe that will be a good marker of how stable your income will be for the next 5-7 years until the insurance regulations settle in.