Jobs, patients, and trends: not good

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Are canadian radoncs still doing 1-2 yrs of fellowships?
per taserlaser it seems a rather growing and frightening amount of Canadian grads have had to enter fellowships as the job market there has worsened. Their current metric is 115 pts/rad onc; ours is 105 and was 145 8y ago.

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per taserlaser it seems a rather growing and frightening amount of Canadian grads have had to enter fellowships as the job market there has worsened. Their current metric is 115 pts/rad onc; ours is 105 and was 145 8y ago.

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The only no thing more frightening than those trends which seem fairly recent is the frightening stupidity of the people that continue to train in Rad onc having this information.
 
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The only no thing more frightening than those trends which seem fairly recent is the frightening stupidity of the people that continue to train in Rad onc having this information.
TBH you can't graduate med school and be a potential rad onc match and be "frighteningly stupid," but I'm a benefit of doubt kinda guy. So either the applicants are deliberately information-poor (some people are loathe to get info off the Internet and prefer their own real life info instead; high IQ people can tend to be an "I know best" crew) or have the info (SDN, the published literature, etc.) and deny it as irrational augury. Either way for now this is an unreachable and unteachable cohort. But there's apt to be a tipping point where even the real-life info is going to get non-ignorable.
 
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TBH you can't graduate med school and be a potential rad onc match and be "frighteningly stupid," but I'm a benefit of doubt kinda guy. So either the applicants are deliberately information-poor (some people are loathe to get info off the Internet and prefer their own real life info instead; high IQ people can tend to be an "I know best" crew) or have the info (SDN, the published literature, etc.) and deny it as irrational augury. Either way for now this is an unreachable and unteachable cohort. But there's apt to be a tipping point where even the real-life info is going to get non-ignorable.

Med school selects for a special strain of stupid mixing arrogance with masochism.
 
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The Canadian job market data posted above clearly demonstrates how rapidly things can change once the saturation/tipping point has been met. To go from 71% to 8% employment in 2-years represents a terrifying precedent for those about to enter a 5-year residency.
 
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The Canadian job market data posted above clearly demonstrates how rapidly things can change once the saturation/tipping point has been met. To go from 71% to 8% employment in 2-years represents a terrifying precedent for those about to enter a 5-year residency.
it should be noted that these Canadian residents went to fellowship even as residency spots were reduced. only 20 graduating residents each year presently. it used to range from 25-30/year.

caro does a good job of tracking these numbers and optimizing the number of rad oncs. this is likely out of necessity for job-less rad onc residents.

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The Canadian job market data posted above clearly demonstrates how rapidly things can change once the saturation/tipping point has been met. To go from 71% to 8% employment in 2-years represents a terrifying precedent for those about to enter a 5-year residency.
just flat out disgusting. At least canadians dont have large college and medical school debt.
 
just flat out disgusting. At least canadians dont have large college and medical school debt.

Yeah and I’m sure most of them envisioned being a debt free lemming doing attending level work for resident pay for the next 10 years as part of their “training”.

Not sure how they would even go about retraining in Canada.
 
Amazing just how quickly the job market (in Canada) evolved. 71% staff to 8% staff in 2 years. Negligible to 65% fellowship in 2 years.

As they say, welcome to the future.

FYI, it’s easy to misinterpret some of those slides. It was the same survey repeated at sequential years. So first year out of practice people had 64-75% fellowship rate give or take, and the further people got from graduation more people got staff jobs. It’s not that it changed on a dime. The year of the survey is in the bottom left corner. The overall fellowship rate has been stableish from year to year.
 
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If you’re talking about the Canadian slide, I think you’re badly misinterpreting it.

unless both their key and axis labeling are both incorrect.

I'll go with poorly labeled slides, and with the assumption we're talking about slide numbers 20-22 from the link:

2016 Survey (slide 20):
Class of 2016 (year 0 from graduation): 74% fellowship
Class of 2015 (year 1 from graduation): 32% fellowship
Class of 2014 (year 2 from graduation): 0%
Mean time to find staff job (50% Staff): 0-1 years after graduation

2015 Survey (slide 21):
Class of 2015 (year 0 from graduation): 64% fellowship
Class of 2014 (year 1 from graduation): 47% fellowship
Class of 2013 (year 2 from graduation): small non-zero percentage fellowship
Mean time to find staff job (50% Staff): 1-2 years after graduation

2014 Survey (slide 22):
Class of 2014 (year 0 from graduation): 71% fellowship
Class of 2013 (year 1 from graduation): 35% fellowship
Class of 2012 (year 2 from graduation): small non-zero percentage fellowship
Mean time to find staff job (50% Staff): 1-2 years after graduation

So there is a trend of about 2 years from graduation for all grads to find full time staff work more or less which is stable, with the 2016 survey year showing an improvement on mean time to finding full time employment. NOT within two years suddenly 60-70% of graduates suddenly being forced to take fellowships. Canadian job market has been not robust for a while, but it's been steady and presumably on a (small) upswing per this report.

That's how I'm interpreting those slides at least.

Addendum: here's the referenced pub - Redirecting
 
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Mea culpa.

I didn’t t see the link to the whole ppt was included. Took the slide as a stand alone. I found it and looked at the link. In the context of the other similar slides, what you wrote makes sense.

Still lousy that 1 year fellowships are pretty much required, 2 year fellowships are normal, and 3 year fellowships are not unheard of but you’re correct.

This matched what I saw in residency when Canadian grads were fleeing the country looking for employment in our department several years earlier than 2015.
 
Mea culpa.

I didn’t t see the link to the whole ppt was included. Took the slide as a stand alone. I found it and looked at the link. Still lousy that 1 year fellowships are pretty much required, 2 year fellowships are normal, and 3 year fellowships are not unheard of but you’re correct.

This matched what I saw in residency when Canadian grads were flooding the department looking for employment several years earlier that 2013

No worries, it's definitely not obvious with how the data is presented. Agree 100% with the rest of your statements.
 
I’d say the Canadian market bottomed out ~2010-2012. Would be interesting to see data before those years. Though, I’m guessing their leadership didn’t take it seriously enough to track data until many of their docs had to literally leave the country to find employment. (Hint, Hint)
 
Good enough place as any to drop this... and the data to continues to hold that annual raw cancer cases, all dx (incl melanoma, leukemia, etc.), increases at ~20,000 pts/yr.

Keep in mind this would work out to about ~6000 new XRT patients/year, which works out to the concerning figure of only ~30 new patients/yr for every new resident... at current numbers. My projection seemed like it could go this low but I didn't believe it, and didn't graph it. Now I do believe it.

(Not mentioned anywhere in article: "radiotherapy.") Remarkable statements like "lung cancer death rates have dropped by 51 percent since 1990 in men, and by 26 percent since 2002 in women, with the most rapid progress in recent years" I don't think anyone could have predicted 20-30y ago.

Cancer death rate posts biggest one-year drop ever
The 2.2 percent decline in 2017 is part of a long-term decrease in mortality rates
 
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Good enough place as any to drop this... and the data to continues to hold that annual raw cancer cases, all dx (incl melanoma, leukemia, etc.), increases at ~20,000 pts/yr, about a 0.006% growth rate I think.

Keep in mind this would work out to about ~6000 new XRT patients/year, which works out to the concerning figure of only ~30 new patients/yr for every new resident... at current numbers. My projection seemed like it could go this low but I didn't believe it, and didn't graph it. Now I do believe it.

(Not mentioned anywhere in article: "radiotherapy.") Remarkable statements like "lung cancer death rates have dropped by 51 percent since 1990 in men, and by 26 percent since 2002 in women, with the most rapid progress in recent years" I don't think anyone could have predicted 20-30y ago.

Cancer death rate posts biggest one-year drop ever
The 2.2 percent decline in 2017 is part of a long-term decrease in mortality rates

This is one those "eye of the beholder" type of data points. The adage has always been "as systemic therapies improve, the importance of local therapies will increase". If I'm worried about long term health of the field, I would be signing up to enroll on oligomet trial such as LU-002 and the like
 
This is one those "eye of the beholder" type of data points. The adage has always been "as systemic therapies improve, the importance of local therapies will increase". If I'm worried about long term health of the field, I would be signing up to enroll on oligomet trial such as LU-002 and the
This is one those "eye of the beholder" type of data points. The adage has always been "as systemic therapies improve, the importance of local therapies will increase". If I'm worried about long term health of the field, I would be signing up to enroll on oligomet trial such as LU-002 and the like
The component that we care more about is the incidence of cancers that often involve xrt as part of treatment. Incidence of lung cancer going down and in 15 years boomer bubble will have passed. Lung cancer, like many other cancer spikes in early 60s epidemiologically. A lot of this also has to do with age demographics which is not addressed in these pieces.
 
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This is one those "eye of the beholder" type of data points. The adage has always been "as systemic therapies improve, the importance of local therapies will increase". If I'm worried about long term health of the field, I would be signing up to enroll on oligomet trial such as LU-002 and the like
Eye of the beholder? That’s denial. Sorry but it just is.

6000 additional new XRT patients means about **one** new additional new patient versus last year‘s workload for every radiation oncologist in America. If every existing radiation oncologist decided to see no additional new XRT patients over and above what they saw last year and gave all additional new XRT patients to new radiation oncology graduates... that would mean only 30 new XRT patients for every radiation oncology graduate. These numbers are going down btw.

The growth rate of radiation oncologists is now some wacky number like 6 times as great as the growth rate in new XRT patients. The same ratio math is not near as concerning for a medical oncologist because the chronicity/multiplicity of their care patterns are on a dramatic upswing. The chronicity/multiplicity of our care patterns are on a pronounced downswing.

How is this even close to eye of the beholder. This is real data. This is not fake news. No radiation oncologist in the US on average is getting busier.
 
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The component that we care more about is the incidence of cancers that often involve xrt as part of treatment. Incidence of lung cancer going down and in 15 years boomer bubble will have passed. Lung cancer, like many other cancer spikes in early 60s epidemiologically. A lot of this also has to do with age demographics which is not addressed in these pieces.

Its not clear that the incidence of lung cancer that involves xrt as part of treatment is going down. Proportion of pts with early stage disease is going up due to screening. Increased survival of stage IV pts is increasing pool of oligomet/palliative pts.

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Can't wait to see what horrible cancer vaping causes.
Its not clear that the incidence of lung cancer that involves xrt as part of treatment is going down. Proportion of pts with early stage disease is going up due to screening. Increased survival of stage IV pts is increasing pool of oligomet/palliative pts.

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proportionately within lung cancer that may be true. In terms of absolute numbers, lot less smokers proportionately within us today than in 80s when surgeons found it acceptable to smoke in the or.
 
SBRT for early stage patients probably driving that uptick starting in 2005
 
SBRT for early stage patients probably driving that uptick starting in 2005

Right, which is why if I'm a rad onc I would spend as much energy on enrolling on trials like VALOR or STABLEMATES and encouraging lung cancer screening as I would fighting residency expansion and oversupply
 
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Right, which is why if I'm a rad onc I would spend as much energy on enrolling on trials like VALOR or STABLEMATES and encouraging lung cancer screening as I would fighting residency expansion and oversupply
Really disagree here regarding equivalency of potential impact on the field.
 
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Right, which is why if I'm a rad onc I would spend as much energy on enrolling on trials like VALOR or STABLEMATES and encouraging lung cancer screening as I would fighting residency expansion and oversupply
Increased screening for a disease whose causative agent incidence is on a steady and significant downward trend will not re-float the boat. And while the incidence of XRT in lung CA is ~20% lower than 40y ago, but on an upswing, think of the incidence of XRT fractions in lung CA. That is on a huge downswing too.

The math is simple. Ever-declining cancer incidence, ever-declining XRT utilization, ever-declining fractionation, and an ever-increasing rad onc growth rate will lead to a perfect storm-type situation one way or another. Becoming sporadic spot-welders for Stage IV patients is neither apt to avoid that inevitability nor will it achieve the gains in survival seen thus far from treatments outside of our specialty. Increased incidence of one-week SBRT also means decreased incidence of 7-week XRT, say nothing for the fall in lung cancer patients available to be SBRT'd even at all as time passes and tobacco use becomes less and less common.
 
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Yes. This has always been a relatively straightforward math problem.
 
Overall, the rate of cancer incidence among men declined rapidly from 2007 to 2014 but then stabilized through 2016, according to the new report. Whereas, the overall cancer incidence rate among women remained generally stable in the past few decades.

 
Whereas, the overall cancer incidence rate among women remained generally stable in the past few decades.
From an epidemiological perspective this is confusing. Why? If you look several decades ago, "most" post-menopausal females were on HRT. And then almost overnight they weren't. And then you'd read news reports claiming breast cancer rates dropped dramatically because women quit HRT. And, now, we say women's cancer rates have been stable. We're still harping on HRT risks (although perhaps estrogen by itself lowers breast cancer risk). Guess that's why I'm not an epidemiologist.
 
Although it is clear that the increase in numbers of doctors is dramatically higher than the increase in patients receiving radiotherapy, should we be looking only at individual patients or should we perhaps be looking at money spent on radiation therapy?

The logic behind this is:
a) More patients receive several courses of radiation therapy during their disease than before. This is because a) patients live longer and get the chance to develop "more disease sites" than need to be treated with radiotherapy.
b) We offer retreatment more than we used to before.

On the other hand, just like scarbzj pointed out, the number of fractions per treatment course for common diseases such as breast cancer and prostate cancer are dropping and with them the revenue for each course of treatment delivered.

Yet in some other diseases we will treat with more complicated and expensive techniques, creating more revenue. 15 years ago most radiation oncologists would give WBRT for a patient with 6 brain mets, nowadays many (or most?) among us will opt to offer SRS or FSRT for the same patient.
SRS / FSRT of 6 mets certainly pays more than 2D-planned WBRT, right?

Are we really looking at the right indicator for the size of the resources allocated to radiation oncology and how they are divided among physicians when we are looking "just" at newly diagnosed cancer patients with an indication for radiotherapy? Should't we be looking at how much money is being paid for radiation therapy in total and then dividing it by physicians?
Even this calculation may be flawed however. Why? Because nowadays we need to pay for more services than we used to before with the same money. We need more sophisticated quality control, we need more resources to conduct administrative tasks, we like to measure patient reported outcomes and so on... Noone pays additional money for all these additional tasks, their costs are covered by treatment costs of the patients we treat.
 
Although it is clear that the increase in numbers of doctors is dramatically higher than the increase in patients receiving radiotherapy, should we be looking only at individual patients or should we perhaps be looking at money spent on radiation therapy?

The logic behind this is:
a) More patients receive several courses of radiation therapy during their disease than before. This is because a) patients live longer and get the chance to develop "more disease sites" than need to be treated with radiotherapy.
b) We offer retreatment more than we used to before.

On the other hand, just like scarbzj pointed out, the number of fractions per treatment course for common diseases such as breast cancer and prostate cancer are dropping and with them the revenue for each course of treatment delivered.

Yet in some other diseases we will treat with more complicated and expensive techniques, creating more revenue. 15 years ago most radiation oncologists would give WBRT for a patient with 6 brain mets, nowadays many (or most?) among us will opt to offer SRS or FSRT for the same patient.
SRS / FSRT of 6 mets certainly pays more than 2D-planned WBRT, right?

Are we really looking at the right indicator for the size of the resources allocated to radiation oncology and how they are divided among physicians when we are looking "just" at newly diagnosed cancer patients with an indication for radiotherapy? Should't we be looking at how much money is being paid for radiation therapy in total and then dividing it by physicians?
Even this calculation may be flawed however. Why? Because nowadays we need to pay for more services than we used to before with the same money. We need more sophisticated quality control, we need more resources to conduct administrative tasks, we like to measure patient reported outcomes and so on... Noone pays additional money for all these additional tasks, their costs are covered by treatment costs of the patients we treat.

These are good points, use of SRS for brain mets is certainly increasing

1578513110462.png
 
Although it is clear that the increase in numbers of doctors is dramatically higher than the increase in patients receiving radiotherapy, should we be looking only at individual patients or should we perhaps be looking at money spent on radiation therapy?

The logic behind this is:
a) More patients receive several courses of radiation therapy during their disease than before. This is because a) patients live longer and get the chance to develop "more disease sites" than need to be treated with radiotherapy.
b) We offer retreatment more than we used to before.

On the other hand, just like scarbzj pointed out, the number of fractions per treatment course for common diseases such as breast cancer and prostate cancer are dropping and with them the revenue for each course of treatment delivered.

Yet in some other diseases we will treat with more complicated and expensive techniques, creating more revenue. 15 years ago most radiation oncologists would give WBRT for a patient with 6 brain mets, nowadays many (or most?) among us will opt to offer SRS or FSRT for the same patient.
SRS / FSRT of 6 mets certainly pays more than 2D-planned WBRT, right?

Are we really looking at the right indicator for the size of the resources allocated to radiation oncology and how they are divided among physicians when we are looking "just" at newly diagnosed cancer patients with an indication for radiotherapy? Should't we be looking at how much money is being paid for radiation therapy in total and then dividing it by physicians?
Even this calculation may be flawed however. Why? Because nowadays we need to pay for more services than we used to before with the same money. We need more sophisticated quality control, we need more resources to conduct administrative tasks, we like to measure patient reported outcomes and so on... Noone pays additional money for all these additional tasks, their costs are covered by treatment costs of the patients we treat.
These are good points, use of SRS for brain mets is certainly increasing

View attachment 292139
I yet once more think: math. On the whole the "high-tech" SRS and SBRT treatments reimburse less than their high-fraction, non-stereotactic alternatives from 10+ y ago. For example, a lung SBRT reimburses half what a 7-week IMRT/IGRT regimen would (I was doing 80.5 Gy/35 fx w/ IMRT prior to SBRT for Stage I). And SRS? Which is now preferred often in lieu of WBRT? A 3D 10 fx WBRT course reimburses almost triple what SRS can. In America, increased use of SRS for brain and SBRT for lung must mean decreased rad onc reimbursement. (Academic centers will play a different game, I imagine, than the numbers you see below to which the non-academic physicians will be beholden; however, again, the deltas are so big in some instances I'm not sure "billing creativity" can make up the difference.)



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Wow, thank you for those numbers. I was not aware that complex techniques in the US actually don't pay that well...
 
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