i think your chances are reasonable. not guaranteed, but you have a good shot.
your step 1 is good enough to make it through the first pass, your grades are good, and you have a whole year of dedicated research experience. i agree to try and at least get a couple of abstracts out and maybe something submitted, even if you are not the first author. you just do not want that publication section to be blank.
33 is a good number, especially if they are not all the superstar rad onc programs. i would just stress the importance of getting good letters from rad onc doctors that are at least some what known by others. when you do your rotations, choose them carefully. if you have a good home program, get to know them well, they can even be your best shot at a place to match. if you do not have a good program, maybe pick one or two away ones where you have a decent chance of getting in (you should also want to go to these places), and really work your magic during your time there.
good luck!