Looking into MD/PhD programs. Crappy freshman year GPA (3.1) but been doing much better. Chances?

[klucket2]

I've been going back and forth between PhD and MD/PhD programs for a while. I'm currently a SURP student at Sloan Kettering, and being here is really making me consider MD/PhD again. I was really unmotivated my freshman year because I didn't know what I wanted to do and was taking classes I didn't like, so I ended up with a 3.1 GPA (B's in some psych classes, C in organic chem I). I'm a Biochem major, and since then my semester GPAs have been 3.79, 3.86, 3.57, and 3.866. My cumulative GPA is now a 3.58, and I know I'll be able to bring it up higher by the end of senior year. I have been doing research since the spring of my sophomore year. I did one summer of full time research at my college (small liberal arts) and I am currently a SURP student at Sloan Kettering. I will have attended 2 national conferences by the time I graduate. I haven't taken the MCAT yet because up until now I was just considering PhD, so if I do decide to go this route I will be taking 2 year off to work as a lab tech somewhere in NYC so I can take the MCAT and get some shadowing experience. Do you think PD/PhD programs (Tri-Institutional being my top choice) are out of reach because of my freshman year GPA?

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[GrapesofRath]

First off what's your reason for wanting to go from PhD to MD/Phd? Because you haven't really given any indication for why you want to change.

Yes your GPA will provide some issues getting into an MD/PhD program.

https://www.aamc.org/students/download/121086/data/mdphd_isitrightforme.pdf

About 30% of matriculants have GPA's below 3.6 and if you do well senior year and pull up the gpa to say 3.65 area if we were to guesstimate from the graph probably 35-40% of matriculants had GPA's below 3.65. Many of these matriculants however you can bet were URMs, came from top schools were there is a level of adjustment for their GPAs, and/or had substantial research experience. You might have that substantial research experience if you are taking time off by the time you apply but the competition for MD/PhD's is just incredibly fierce. The AVERAGE MCAT for these programs last year was a 34. If you are serious about trying to get in with your lower GPA it is necessary to do exceptional on the MCAT and it would be in your best interest given your GPA and the competition to do better than that 34. And planning to get a 36/37+ score or equivalent percentile on the new MCAT? That's a huge huge expectation, one that is probably a bit too much.

Let's also emphasize this: there are MANY MANY students turned away from these programs with much higher stats along the lines of 3.8+/34+ who have good research experience. If you really want to make this commitment of going into an MD/PhD and take 2 years off to bolster your application, at the very least realize you are taking a pretty big gamble and you damn well have some strong reasons for getting an MD/PhD well beyond just having an MD to your name.