Looming oversupply of neurologists?

[Medicaldoctorintraining]

I know that the official stance of the AAN is that there is a looming shortage of neurologists. They published a study back in 2013 saying that this shortage would reach crisis levels by 2022.

Hovwever, after looking through recent match data it seems that the number of residency positions in neurology is growing at an astonishing rate, way faster than any other specialty (See page 12-13 of Main-Match-Result-and-Data-2018). Growth is at over 10% PER YEAR, and has been growing at that rate since 2012 if you look back at older data.

I'm just wondering if all this worry about a looming shortage has triggered programs to expand their programs to the extent of saturating the market in the coming years? Do you think that neurology job market is headed in the direction of the over saturated pathology job market?

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[GuillainMollaret]

Interesting question, but I'd say you don't have anything to worry about. Sure, neurology programs are growing, but most were pretty small to begin with and still are (6-8 spots per year is probably about average these days) and the demand for our services is huge.

I've been able to see the data for my own program and the number of consults our service gets has more than doubled in the last decade (over 5000 per year). The reasons for this are multi-factorial and include increasing risk aversion by the those who consult us (mainly the ED) which goes along with decreasing comfort by non-neurologists in managing relatively simple things and increasing complexity of the field itself with new therapeutic options coming out every year. The population is also aging and neurological disease is ubiquitous. I feel that demand can only increase.

I haven't actually started looking for a job yet, but those I know who have don't seem to be having any problems. Average salary seems to be increasing each year which suggests high demand. There is certainly some saturation in highly desirable cities, but I'd wager that's true for most specialties. Also certain subspecialties seem to be in higher demand than others: stroke and epilepsy >> neuromuscular (or EMG track neurophysiology), MS > movement > headache >> cognitive if I had to guess, others may disagree.