The Fly and Scooby are correct. You shouldn't approach these schools as backups. I'd go so far as to say that you shouldn't approach any schools as backups. Yes of course, you have a better chance of getting into some schools compared to others, but in the end it becomes much more than average stats.
I am a California resident as well and applied to the UCs, Stanford, NYU, Sinai, Einstein, RWJ, and NYMC. .NYU waitlisted me and I have since withdrawn. Mount Sinai did not even interview me. My stats 'fit' what Sinai and NYU look for...go figure.
The UCs were even stranger. I only received two interview invites from the UCs...SF and Irvine. Davis rejected me presecondary, UCSD put me on hold for an interview and then rejected me, and UCLA rejected me postsecondary (so did Stanford). Irvine waitlisted me and subsequently accepted me, and I received an acceptance to UCSF. Now, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense when I try to understand how and why I got into where I did and where I didn't.
I guess I am sharing this with you b/c I can somehow relate to where you are coming from. When you are myopically focusing on only numbers...you start to look at gpa and mcat and think, "hey, i have a good shot at that school". I just don't think it is that easy . Your personal statement, your state residency, your ECs, your LORs, your interview skills...all come into play when it comes to making a decision on your application. I know people with great numbers who did not get one interview at a UC, and I also know people with solid (but not great numbers) who have gotten into excellent schools. The sooner you realize this the better...all medical schools are difficult to get into.
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