Navy LCDR Promotion Board 2013

[Tooth]

I'm hearing disturbing news that we're in store for a shocking LCDR promotion board result this year. Historically promotion to LCDR is 100%. I'm hearing this year it will be more like 50%. This has also been the case in the Navy Reserves. Has anyone else heard this?

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[vellnueve]

I doubt it. As of several weeks ago talking to CAPT Hartzell and NPDS staff, selection to O-4 was still predicted to be about 100%.

Perhaps you may see a drop in other communities, but I don't think we'll see that in the DC.

 

[Hedgy]

O-4 is a pretty big carrot to keep LTs at the end of their commitments. I'm not sure what the numbers are now for those leaving the service after their initial commitment, but it was near 70% when I was in. The Navy Dental Corps was certainly top heavy and I'm sure continues to be, so I would suspect promotion to O-5 and O-6 will be much lower.

I can't comment much on Reserves, but my friend was an O-4 active reserve periodontist and was offered O-5, but that was much more work than the usual 1 weekend/month, 2 weeks year. He passed on the promotion and went IRR.

 

[Tooth]

Only 7 people in the dental corps made CAPT this year.

There are now 83 CDR's above zone.

If it turns out to be true, the only conclusion I can draw is that the DC is downsizing.

 

[vellnueve]

Only 7 people in the dental corps made CAPT this year.

There are now 83 CDR's above zone.

If it turns out to be true, the only conclusion I can draw is that the DC is downsizing.

Wrong way to look at it. The DC has always been way too top-heavy with more CAPTs than CDRs. That has been correcting itself over the past few years. There always have been and will continue to be a good number of terminal O-5s - this has nothing to do with downsizing and everything to do with what they have or haven't done in their careers. If you haven't taken a big leadership (directorate, OIC, carrier DH) type job or a program director job, making O-6 is difficult - and there are a lot of O-5s out there who are 100% clinical. Eventually they'll want to nudge some of those terminal above-zone O-5s out to make way for the increasing numbers of younger O-4s who are staying in and making O-5.

When you look at your chances of making O-6 as a DC officer versus a line community or even some of the other staff corps, it's not even close to the same sort of competition.

 

[docdok]

Vellnueve is very correct on this

Another thing to consider is that the 06/05 people are at the tail end of the baby boom generation.

In the past there has been a lot of attrition in the LT ranks before the recession.

What this means is that if you look at 10+ years out the 05/06s who are very top heavy currently will be gone along with more chances of promotion to 06 for current LT/LCDR in the future.

It made sense to me; and it was advised to us lowly LT's several years back by a very seasoned 06 when he was giving us career advice.

I don't know how much downsizing the Navy can do with current manning. I remember back in 06 there was the big push to civilianize a lot of dental positions at shore commands, but since then seems like they back tracked......

In the end they will always need dentists; ain't never gonna change on that matter...

 

[Tooth]

I think the days of calling the DC top heavy are officially gone. We're very bottom heavy.

According to our last lineal list, there are 186 CAPT'S, 179 CDR'S, 165 LCDR's, and 528 LT'S.

 

[vellnueve]

Wanna compare that to a line community?

 

[Tooth]

Wanna compare that to a line community?

Understood, but we're staff officers. Unlimited promotion of staff officers to O-6 is a retention tool that is blatantly failing in the Navy DC this year. While I'm positive the Navy DC will survive, it's discouraging and disappointing to see so many CDR's getting passed up. I wonder if the Army is like this, this year.

 

[vellnueve]

I seriously doubt it is something systematic. Promotion to O-6 has never been a guarantee even in the DC.

 

[Hedgy]

Of course it's bottom heavy, you'll never have the same number of LTs as O4-O6s. That never would make sense, seeing that the attrition of LTs is so high. If you retain say 35% of that number, you'll have around 172 LTs staying in. Sounds about right to me. There are only so many O6 billets for the Navy, so I'm sure they try to keep the number of O6s at a fairly even number. What you need are O6s to retire to let the O5s in, but why would they want to go anywhere. Privilege of pay/rank/status is fantastic for those guys. That being said, retiring at O5 (think you can go 26yrs as an O5) isn't too bad either.

One thing I know is that if you want to get promoted, you better be good as a paper dentist. Clinicians don't go anywhere in the military. You may go back to clinic when you pick up O6, but you better follow the career path to get there.

I'm not sure if you have some retired/retained O6s in there. That's a policy that needs to go.

 

[vellnueve]

Of course it's bottom heavy, you'll never have the same number of LTs as O4-O6s. That never would make sense, seeing that the attrition of LTs is so high. If you retain say 35% of that number, you'll have around 172 LTs staying in. Sounds about right to me. There are only so many O6 billets for the Navy, so I'm sure they try to keep the number of O6s at a fairly even number. What you need are O6s to retire to let the O5s in, but why would they want to go anywhere. Privilege of pay/rank/status is fantastic for those guys. That being said, retiring at O5 (think you can go 26yrs as an O5) isn't too bad either.

One thing I know is that if you want to get promoted, you better be good as a paper dentist. Clinicians don't go anywhere in the military. You may go back to clinic when you pick up O6, but you better follow the career path to get there.

I'm not sure if you have some retired/retained O6s in there. That's a policy that needs to go.

The DC and MC do not have limits on the number of O6s, but you do need to play the game to make O6.

There are still some retired/retained but only in the specialty areas that are undermanned (namely, OS and Prosth). They are supposed to be 100% clinical.