Neurology job market in 2050????

[deleted1139416]

I know that neurologists are currently hugely in demand. But my biggest fear is that residency programs churn out 1000 neurologists every year. Sure, we may not feel the burn now, but in 2050 when I will be in the peak of my career at 55 years old, there will be around 30,000 more neurologists than there are now. If we get conservative and estimate that half of the current workforce of 20,000 neurologists are still working, that’s 40,000 practicing neurologists in 2050. Chances are I’d be out of work at 50 years old. I mean, sure, nobody knows what will happen by then. Heck, there might be a zombie apocalypse. But the prospect of not having a job after 50 is pretty frightening. What’s worse is that neurology is so specific and specialized that there is absolutely no backup occupation I can do.

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[DrSatan]

not to mention APPs...but I wouldn't worry about 30 years in the future. All fields are growing & we are already in demand. Do what you love regardless. We'll (probably) be fine.

 

[Postictal Raiden]

Oversupply of neurologists in 2050 should be of an infinitely less concern to you than the current state of medicine and healthcare in general.

 

[DrStephenStrange]

I know that neurologists are currently hugely in demand. But my biggest fear is that residency programs churn out 1000 neurologists every year. Sure, we may not feel the burn now, but in 2050 when I will be in the peak of my career at 55 years old, there will be around 30,000 more neurologists than there are now. If we get conservative and estimate that half of the current workforce of 20,000 neurologists are still working, that’s 40,000 practicing neurologists in 2050. Chances are I’d be out of work at 50 years old. I mean, sure, nobody knows what will happen by then. Heck, there might be a zombie apocalypse. But the prospect of not having a job after 50 is pretty frightening. What’s worse is that neurology is so specific and specialized that there is absolutely no backup occupation I can do.

Your assumptions doesn't account for people retiring and population growth. The current population of neurologists is very old. The average age of a first year neurology residents in 2021 was 30.35 (Source) which means by 2050 most people entiring residency this year will be within 5 to 10 years from retirement. The current population growth rate is 0.4% per year, assuming nothing changes drastically, that will be a 12% increase in the current population. So don't worry, the sky is not falling that fast for Neurology.

 

[Telamir]

Dunno will be retired.

 

[deleted1139416]

Oversupply of neurologists in 2050 should be of an infinitely less concern to you than the current state of medicine and healthcare in general.

Both are a concern. But the only thing I have control over at the moment is what specialty I am interested in.

 

[Thama]

1) Society in all developed nations is aging rapidly and overall neurological diseases become more common with age.

2) There is already a critical shortage of neurologists throughout the US with excessive wait times in nearly all geographic areas.

3) While no field is immune to scope creep from midlevels, neurology is a difficult enough field that it has proven relatively unattractive for midlevels that want to operate independently. Hell, it's difficult enough that MDs that haven't completed a neurology residency generally react to the most basic of neurological diagnoses with panic and an immediate consult to a neurologist.

4) As others note, the main concern should be what happens with our healthcare system in general, not the future of our specialty. The future of our specialty is bright within the context of medicine as a whole, but if the system as a whole collapses then that will take us down with it (along with every other specialty you are likely considering).

 

[deathmerchant]

I know that neurologists are currently hugely in demand. But my biggest fear is that residency programs churn out 1000 neurologists every year. Sure, we may not feel the burn now, but in 2050 when I will be in the peak of my career at 55 years old, there will be around 30,000 more neurologists than there are now. If we get conservative and estimate that half of the current workforce of 20,000 neurologists are still working, that’s 40,000 practicing neurologists in 2050. Chances are I’d be out of work at 50 years old. I mean, sure, nobody knows what will happen by then. Heck, there might be a zombie apocalypse. But the prospect of not having a job after 50 is pretty frightening. What’s worse is that neurology is so specific and specialized that there is absolutely no backup occupation I can do.

A lot of valid points by other posters. We've had this discussion on this forum before, US older patient population is growing way faster than neurologists are projected to. Ive looked at the stats closely. We are going to have increasing shortage over the next 10 years, not less. I can't predict what will happen in 30-50 years though. No one can. I suspect the whole world will be unimaginably different by 2050.

In regards to APPs, even though I am against this midlevel model, based on my personal experience having midlevels has increased neuro burden because they can't manage simple things that a good PCP should be able to. They pretty much send every minor neuro consult my way. I believe Neurologists shouldn't be seeing first line diabetic neuropathy, headaches/migraines, memory loss, syncope and many others.

Another controversial point that doesn't get mentioned enough- there are a lot of physicians/neurologists who get easily burned out these days compared to the older generation docs. There are discussions of the "Great resignation" and FIRE everywhere. Many doctors including me, want to have a good work/life balance; want to live in HCOL areas, work part-time (esp women neurologists and neurology has a high and increasing percentage of women neurologists). I don't see many people "hustling" in medicine anymore compared to before.

The older generation physicians have been much more resilient and hard working (esp when they started) than my generation and definitely more so than younger generation. One older guy in my area covers 2 hospitals seeing 15-20 inpatients and then goes to his clinic seeing 15-20 patients. He pretty much takes call 365 days. I have rarely seen him take a day off. People today will say he is crazy and stupid and that is unsustainable and unsafe (maybe rightly so), but he's been doing it for several decades and seems chill to me.

 

[Giovanotto]

A lot of valid points by other posters. We've had this discussion on this forum before, US older patient population is growing way faster than neurologists are projected to. Ive looked at the stats closely. We are going to have increasing shortage over the next 10 years, not less. I can't predict what will happen in 30-50 years though. No one can. I suspect the whole world will be unimaginably different by 2050.

In regards to APPs, even though I am against this midlevel model, based on my personal experience having midlevels has increased neuro burden because they can't manage simple things that a good PCP should be able to. They pretty much send every minor neuro consult my way. I believe Neurologists shouldn't be seeing first line diabetic neuropathy, headaches/migraines, memory loss, syncope and many others.

Another controversial point that doesn't get mentioned enough- there are a lot of physicians/neurologists who get easily burned out these days compared to the older generation docs. There are discussions of the "Great resignation" and FIRE everywhere. Many doctors including me, want to have a good work/life balance; want to live in HCOL areas, work part-time (esp women neurologists and neurology has a high and increasing percentage of women neurologists). I don't see many people "hustling" in medicine anymore compared to before.

The older generation physicians have been much more resilient and hard working (esp when they started) than my generation and definitely more so than younger generation. One older guy in my area covers 2 hospitals seeing 15-20 inpatients and then goes to his clinic seeing 15-20 patients. He pretty much takes call 365 days. I have rarely seen him take a day off. People today will say he is crazy and stupid and that is unsustainable and unsafe (maybe rightly so), but he's been doing it for several decades and seems chill to me.

What you see as resilient and hard working, I see as a miserable, unfulfilled person. There's a really good reason why you don't see many people "hustling" in medicine anymore, and the corporate takeover of medicine explains a large part of it. I would be much more willing to "hustle" in a practice I own or have significant equity in. Too each their own I guess.

 

[deathmerchant]

What you see as resilient and hard working, I see as a miserable, unfulfilled person. There's a really good reason why you don't see many people "hustling" in medicine anymore, and the corporate takeover of medicine explains a large part of it. I would be much more willing to "hustle" in a practice I own or have significant equity in. Too each their own I guess.

You don't know what that person's life is and has been like and what they enjoy and what they don't. He seems happy and content to me. I might be wrong.
I personally don't endorse that lifestyle and have one of the cushiest job possible in medicine. Not picking on you, but you and many others here probably work a lot more than me and I might consider That as 'miserable and unfulfilling'. To each their own.

 

[Neurogeneral]

A lot of valid points by other posters. We've had this discussion on this forum before, US older patient population is growing way faster than neurologists are projected to. Ive looked at the stats closely. We are going to have increasing shortage over the next 10 years, not less. I can't predict what will happen in 30-50 years though. No one can. I suspect the whole world will be unimaginably different by 2050.

In regards to APPs, even though I am against this midlevel model, based on my personal experience having midlevels has increased neuro burden because they can't manage simple things that a good PCP should be able to. They pretty much send every minor neuro consult my way. I believe Neurologists shouldn't be seeing first line diabetic neuropathy, headaches/migraines, memory loss, syncope and many others.

Another controversial point that doesn't get mentioned enough- there are a lot of physicians/neurologists who get easily burned out these days compared to the older generation docs. There are discussions of the "Great resignation" and FIRE everywhere. Many doctors including me, want to have a good work/life balance; want to live in HCOL areas, work part-time (esp women neurologists and neurology has a high and increasing percentage of women neurologists). I don't see many people "hustling" in medicine anymore compared to before.

The older generation physicians have been much more resilient and hard working (esp when they started) than my generation and definitely more so than younger generation. One older guy in my area covers 2 hospitals seeing 15-20 inpatients and then goes to his clinic seeing 15-20 patients. He pretty much takes call 365 days. I have rarely seen him take a day off. People today will say he is crazy and stupid and that is unsustainable and unsafe (maybe rightly so), but he's been doing it for several decades and seems chill to me.

The older docs do tend “hustle” much more but they also did most of their work in a different era. Many were private practice docs, which means having that autonomy but also seeing as many patients as possible to maximize your take home. As well, this may seem like a generalization, but the older docs also are more likely to have stay at home wives. They grew up in a generation where doctors weren’t really expected to be actively present in their households or at least not as much as now. Many could routinely just waltz in after a long day just in time to tuck the kids in at night or even past their bedtimes. Wife would do the vast majority of heavy lifting (if not all) when it came to raising the kids, doing the household work, etc while you were always working long hours covering multiple hospitals. Expectations have changed and peoples own sense of responsibilities/priorities have changed as well - especially since many docs now have wives/partners with their own thriving careers including medicine.

 

[deleted1139416]

The older docs do tend “hustle” much more but they also did most of their work in a different era. Many were private practice docs, which means having that autonomy but also seeing as many patients as possible to maximize your take home. As well, this may seem like a generalization, but the older docs also are more likely to have stay at home wives. They grew up in a generation where doctors weren’t really expected to be actively present in their households or at least not as much as now. Many could routinely just waltz in after a long day just in time to tuck the kids in at night or even past their bedtimes. Wife would do the vast majority of heavy lifting (if not all) when it came to raising the kids, doing the household work, etc while you were always working long hours covering multiple hospitals. Expectations have changed and peoples own sense of responsibilities/priorities have changed as well - especially since many docs now have wives/partners with their own thriving careers including medicine.

For many couples, the traditional style still exists. Though it has changed somewhat since the rise in technology has allowed people to make errands easier (instacart, postmates, advanced home appliances, etc). And most doctors are able to afford doing all that.

 

[deathmerchant]

The older docs do tend “hustle” much more but they also did most of their work in a different era. Many were private practice docs, which means having that autonomy but also seeing as many patients as possible to maximize your take home. As well, this may seem like a generalization, but the older docs also are more likely to have stay at home wives. They grew up in a generation where doctors weren’t really expected to be actively present in their households or at least not as much as now. Many could routinely just waltz in after a long day just in time to tuck the kids in at night or even past their bedtimes. Wife would do the vast majority of heavy lifting (if not all) when it came to raising the kids, doing the household work, etc while you were always working long hours covering multiple hospitals. Expectations have changed and peoples own sense of responsibilities/priorities have changed as well - especially since many docs now have wives/partners with their own thriving careers including medicine.

Yea that's all what I was pointing out- back then everyones expectations were different from themselves, their partners and other people. I believe these older generation people worked harder and didn't take things for granted. Obviously there were much stronger cultural/societal biases.

Gen Z/late millennial are getting married or having kids at the lowest rates, and also don't want to hustle. Trying to find the cushiest job/part time job etc and focusing on FIRE - which bdw is great for them/us but not great for neurologist' shortage, which was my original point. I personally work the bare minimum.

 

[Mad Jack]

Save your money and be ready to bounce by then so it doesn't matter either way

 

[Postictal Raiden]

Save your money and be ready to bounce by then so it doesn't matter either way

Exactly. I only need things to remain the same for another 10-15 years. Don’t need that big house or European car.
With the way I currently spend, I can semi-retire or do part time by 2040 if cost of living to compensation remain unchanged.