But unless dental income rises...
I have looked at few scenarios that this could happen, and they showed no increase in income relative to inflation.
There are few factors than can increase income:
1. Working in less saturated areas: Unfortunately, for young dentists (in their 20’s to 40’s), this will be highly unlikely for the majority. Society is moving to more urban areas, which means, their families, relatives and friends all want to move there too - and dentists will be pressured to work in urban areas as a result. Also, fewer and fewer people will live in rural areas, so the dentist to population ratio will decline over time over there. Plus corporations are already expanding to rural areas at a faster rate than young dentists. So in this scenario, the average dentist income will not go up.
2. Insurance/reimbursements: There is a continuous downward pressure to reduce fees and eliminate coverage from most private insurance plans. In fact, some insurance plans are opening their own private practices. A significant number of patients with private insurances can’t afford co-payments for major procedures (root canals, crowns, ortho, etc). This benefits the insurance companies, less money going out, as they don’t have to cut checks to providers. Even when they do, there is a complex tug of war for insurances to pay (unnecessary reviews and delays of claims being paid). So under this scenario, the average dentist can only make more $$$ if he or she has a very good system to navigate through insurance plans. So in this scenario, there is a big MAYBE that a dentist income could go up, but difficult to say if it’s sustainable in the long run. Also, government insurances will expand in the future, as the lower socioeconomic demographics grow at a faster pace than the middle class (less fertility) - so this will not be good for a dentist income when you have an overall fewer people who can afford premium dental services.
3. Technology and Workforce changes: We are seeing technology disruptions and taking services from providers. Aligners for ortho are now offered ubiquitously over pharmacy counters. Technology will also push services to corporations, with more centralized marketing and call centers that can reach new patients better than the average dentists. It’s the Walgreens/CVS versus small pharmacy store effect. In fact, private equities are buying private practices with strong numbers before the average dentist can. Mid-level providers will also be in every state in a decade or so (currently 15 states) - adding to the existing saturation. These changes happened already, but they will get bigger and limit the average dentist income.
4. Less dental schools and debt: Well, this is now a widely known fact and reality. Both went up and they both lead to more saturation and less income. Some schools are also expanding their international dentists programs - who end up working for corporations to obtain green cards/permanent residencies. Those dentists will accept lower income to motivate employers for their sponsorship and ultimately help corporations grow.
5. Inflation: The average Dentist income has been losing against inflation for a decade or 2 now. Dental office cost/overhead has been going up - from office leases, construction cost, payroll (minimum wage in some states like Massachusetts has gone up to $15+ an hour, even corporations like Target and fast food chains now pay equal or more than a dental assistant pay in many parts of the country), supply cost, even personal cost like housing, gas, and cost to raise a family has gone up (ask any dentist with kids on these forums). Inflation is by far the #1 threat to the “average dentist” income.