So if you do not recieve an email from a program you want to go to-that you expressed to them they were on the top of your list, are you screwed? I got a reply after sending the first mail a couple weeks ago. But now have heard nothing else and seemingly lots of people are getting the "you are ranked to match" email and I am getting no such emails
Are these common or not common?
Relax! You don't have to be 'ranked to match' in order to match in your top three.
According to the AAMC, in 2004
"As in previous years, more than 80 percent of all matched applicants obtained one of their top three residency program choices. Matched U.S. medical school seniors enjoyed a very high success rate, as more than 85 percent of them were paired with one of their top three program choices. Similarly, more than 83 percent of all other groups of matched applicants were paired with one of their top three choices."
http://www.aamc.org/newsroom/reporte...4/matchday.htm
And that includes all specialties, not just psychiatry (which is a relatively easy match).
Put another way, imagine you have 10 programs, each of which has ten spots, and you also have 100 applicants, each of whom interview at all ten programs.
Every program has interviewed 10 applicants per spot. Sounds competitive, right? - but 100% of applicants will be matched, and even if they all submit the exact same ROL, 30% of them will get one of their top three. This is the worst-case scenario, in which everyone wants to go to the same program so you really only have a 10% chance of matching there if you interview.
Presumably they won't all submit the same ROL though; so suppose of the three most popular programs, each is ranked #1 by 30% of the applicants. Then 30% of the total (ten students from each of the groups of 30) will get their first choice. And even if all the programs wanted the same ten people, two-thirds of those 30% will be applicants who were not 'ranked to match' by the programs.
Overall, the more 'equal' the programs are in their appeal to applicants, the more likely you are to get your first choice.