Number of applications to M.D prog decreasing?

[mikeaparker]

Has anyone heard that the number of applicants to allopathic medical schools is decreasing a good percent? I have been told this by several people, however, does anyone know of any documentation on web or magazines or state your opinion, thanks.....???!!!!!

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[turtleboard]

The number of applications to AAMC (MD) schools in the 1995-1996 cycle was around 46,000.

In the most recent cycle, that of 1998-1999, the number of applications was between 39,000 and 40,000 I believe. Check the AAMC site (www.aamc.org).

Applications to MD and DO schools have been sliding in the past several years, and the trend is expected to continue. You should know that appliations seem to follow cyclic pattern. For example in the early 1990s applications were low, peaked in the mid-1990s, and now are on their way down. It's possible that by 2005 applications will go back up.

Good luck.

Tim of New York City.

 

[OldManDave]

I hate to poop on your parade; but there's more to the "pool decreasing" than meets the eye. Yeah, the raw numbers are in a downward slide and yes, the number trend do appear to cycle. However, unlike previous dips in app numbers, this time as the pool shrinks it has become more self-selective. In other words, as the numbers decreased their average statistics [GPA and MCAT scores] have actually increased. This makes for a smaller; but MORE competitive pool.

------------------
'Old Man Dave'
KCOM, Class of '03

 

[turtleboard]

Well you didn't let me finish.

Yes, the applicant pool has become somewhat more self-selected and that explains why the average GPA and MCATs have gone up a bit. It doesn't, however, necessarily explain the 7,000 decrease at MD programs over the past three years.

I read that it may be attributed to all the talk of physicians and how they're turned off by managed care or perhaps the beck and call of a healthy economy (business). Interestingly enough, I hear at the same time that dental applications have gone up. Is it by 7,000? Perhaps.

Oh well... Back to Genetics.

Tim of New York City.

 

[daveyboy]

If the number of applicants for a fixed number of positions, the selectivity for filling the position will go down. This is true for any position. The increase in the gpa's of pre-meds could be the result of a multitude of factors unrelated to difficulty levels in med school admission.
It seems very reasonable that the past trends in med school admissions will continue as they have.
Many people who may have applied to med school in the past are now going into P.T. or P.A. Not only that, but very few people are going into medicine just for the money. They just go to business school now.
Anyway, it seens like if less people are applying then getting in should be easier. It will make my life easier if it is true.

 

[UW]

There was an article on this in this week's New York Times. I believe it was the Wednesday or Thursday edition.

 

[mikeaparker]

Looks good for students applying!!
Straight from the Journal of the AMA
copyright R I gave them credit, don't sue me, ok JAMA,

Abstracts - September 1, 1999

Educational Programs in US Medical Schools, 1998-1999
Barbara Barzansky, PhD
Harry S. Jonas, MD
Sylvia I. Etzel

To describe the current status of medical education programs in the United States and to trace trends in medical education over this century, we used data from the 1998-1999 Liaison Committee on Medical Education Annual Medical School Questionnaire, which had a 100% response rate, and data from other sources. In 1998-1999, total full-time faculty members numbered 98 202, a 1.5% increase from 1997-1998. The number of applicants to medical school declined for the second consecutive year, from 43,020 in 1997 to 41,004 in 1998, but the academic qualifications of entering students remained steady. The number of applicants from underrepresented minority groups decreased 1.3% from 1997 to 1998, compared with an 11.1% decrease between 1996 and 1997. Women constituted 43.4% of applicants in 1998, slightly more than the 42.5% in 1997. The total number of required hours in the first and second years of the curriculum and the number of scheduled hours per week have declined over the past 15 years, while the average lengths of clinical clerkships remained about the same. The number of schools requiring students to pass Steps 1 and 2 of the United States Medical Licensing Examination continued to increase in 1998-1999, with 50% of schools requiring passing both examinations, compared with 46% in 1997-1998.

JAMA. 1999;282:840-846

 

[simpleton]

Does anyone have the latest numbers from this years application cycle? I would be curious to find out.

 

[doppl]

Apparantly, at Yale we were told that applications were supposed to be up this year but because of the AMCAS debacle, they actuallly decreased. Maybe the increase will be reflected next year. The good thing (or bad, depending whether you are a student or applicant) is some schools are beginning to increase their class size to compensate for lack of oversupply of physicians, and now undersupply, that was supposed to have occured in the past decade. This should make it easier for applicants.

 

[oldman]

I just came back from the U of Iowa. The assistant dean of admissions mentioned that this year the applicant pool strunk by approximately 10,000 people, probably due to the AMCAS problems.

 

[DesiMD]

•••quote:•••Originally posted by oldman:
•I just came back from the U of Iowa. The assistant dean of admissions mentioned that this year the applicant pool strunk by approximately 10,000 people, probably due to the AMCAS problems.•••••I have a hard time believing 10,000 applicants nationwide are going to go through all their pre-med courses, take the mcat, obtain healthcare experiences, and then not apply because of AMCAS. 1 or 2 thousand? Sure, I can see that, and they were probably not very competitive to begin with. But I can't see 10,000. That's like 30% of all applicants!! I'd like to know where he got his numbers.

 

[oldman]

I got the number from Kathi Huebner, assistant director of admissions. Though she was saying the number off the top of her head and i am repeating it off the top of my head. hence through the game of telephone i may be misquoting her. but i remember she said there was a significant drop-off this year.

 

[brickmanli]

Do you guys think the numbers of applicants will increase next year due to people disenchanted with the stock market and what happened on September 11? I have a friend who used to be a business major, now she's frantically trying to finish her premed requirements to get in next year. I think the nineties scared off a lot of potential doctors because of the managed-care crisis, will we witness a similar phenomenon during this decade?

 

[DesiMD]

•••quote:•••Originally posted by brickmanli:
•Do you guys think the numbers of applicants will increase next year due to people disenchanted with the stock market and what happened on September 11? I have a friend who used to be a business major, now she's frantically trying to finish her premed requirements to get in next year. I think the nineties scared off a lot of potential doctors because of the managed-care crisis, will we witness a similar phenomenon during this decade?•••••What's the correlation between an increase in med school apps and September 11th? Sorry, I don't follow you.

 

[brickmanli]

I am referring to the massive layoffs after September 11, it seems like the job losses were permanent. I would think many more people are now considering service jobs that are well-paid and stable as well, for example medicine.