Pretty subjective at this point. I think all specialties experience the highs and lows with their respective competitiveness relative to this. Both Anesthesia and Radiology were less competitive in the early 90s. I think this had to do with the false prediction that anesthesia would be a saturated field in the early part of the 21st century (largely due to overblown expectations of HMO supremacy in this country) and lower remuneration for both specialties at the time. Now that both are making the big $$, particularly radiologists, things have changed. Radiology has become exceptionally competitive these days and I'd imagine that it is right up there with derm and surgical subspecialties.
I can speak more about anesthesia as I went through the match process for gas last fall and found that anesthesia is indeed on the rebound. Many PDs at state university hospitals were telling me that they were seeing average applications with people scoring between 225 and 235 on step I of the USMLE and were using 220 as a cutoff for interviews. The "top" programs, like UCSF, Hopkins, MGH, B&W, Mayo, and Michigan may have even higher screeing criteria, such as AOA, etc. Of course, we all know that a person is more than just a number on a page, but *shhh* don't tell the PDs that
I think ER is fairly competitive as are the other "lifestyle" specialties, the ROAD to success (Radiology, Ophthalmology, Anesthesiology, and Dermatology) specialties. Friends of mine who matched into ER at places like Hopkins had boards in the 225 range and were even then turned down for interviews at lesser programs.
Which specialty is more competitive? Hard to say these days. Several years ago it would have been ER, no questions. Now, hard to say as the competition has become keen in gas. When I was interviewing, many other applicants shared stories of programs not even looking at IMGs, which would have been unheard of just several years ago. Times change.
Who knows in a few years? Perhaps primary care will experience a resurgence and you'll need 95% boards to get into FP.
R/
PM