only 20,000 applicants this year

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Alli Cat

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... according to my rough calculations. When I started the MCAT prep course back in January, we were told that the class size was about half of normal. The manager said a lot of students were waiting a year to apply, because of the economic trauma caused by 9/11. Were anyone else's MCAT classes smaller than usual? How about you August MCAT-ers...any class size differences?

I wish AMCAS had an odometer on the main page that showed how many primaries have been submitted to date.
 
rough calculations? I know med school application rates have been dropping a lot in the past few years, but I find that one a little hard. There are usually >30,000 apps a year. If it dropped that much near 2/3 of applicants would be getting into medical school this year.

Not that I'd be complaining or anything
 
the number of medical school seats open is set, right? unless, some school has filed for bankruptcy or something (which i heard was actually close to happening at georgetown...)

anyway, if anything, i think the trauma of 9/11 would push people toward job security (great for doctors) and jobs where you're serving others (also a key component of beign a doctor).
 
A counselor told me that there will be a great surge in the number of applications to graduate and professional schools because the events of 9/11 led to a poor economy and many people lost their jobs. If you can't find a job, you do something to make yourself look better, i.e. go back to school.
 
I think you are so so wrong. I remember reading on AAMC a few days ago (damn it I can't find the article!) that they are expecting a surge in medical school applicants this year NOT a decline. So buckle up and get ready for a bumpy ride! 🙂
 
i'd be agreeing with pocwana,

but i was also thinking that applying to medical school is not something that you do in 1 year. the only people that would contribute to the surge would be the ones with all their premed courses satisfied that have just held off on applying.

i think that the true surge will come next year or the next, when all those undergraduates switch career choices.
 
i'd be agreeing with pocwana,

but i was also thinking that applying to medical school is not something that you do in 1 year. the only people that would contribute to the surge would be the ones with all their premed courses satisfied that have just held off on applying.

i think that the true surge will come next year or the next, when all those undergraduates switch career choices.
 
I would have expected a surge of applicants after 9/11 too. A lot of people quit their fields and went into something health care or community service oriented in order to do something more "meaningful" 9-5; a logical extension of this would be that more people will want to go into medical school too. You guys will still probably have it easy though. I actually know of some people who graduated in the mid-90s who couldn't go to medical school because of the competetiveness of it back then. Back then, it was over 45,000 very qualified applicants for 16,000 spots. Med schools could really take their pick of the liter with that ratio. I think that last year, it was ~32,000 applicants for 16,000 spots; that does make a tremendous difference in terms of chances of getting in.
 
I remember a few days ago the <a href="http://www.aamc.org" target="_blank">www.aamc.org</a> website said that the number of applicantions might get up to 47,000 this year. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" />
 
Surge?? Oh no!

Poc, I agree, but I have heard that most people heading back to school go for a master's... it's not easier than just deciding to apply to med school, and you wouldn't get an MD just because times are tough (I hope... that seems drastic to me)

RP, I'd love to see this article! My "rough calculations" were based on the fact that my MCAT course had 35 students instead of 60. So, 20,000 applicants instead of 35,000 🙄 yeah, it's "soft math," but why not dream a little...
 
There is not a snowball's chance in hell that there will only be 20,000 applicants for 02-03. If that were the case, every Tom, Dick, and Harry would get in. Nice dream, but the reality is that it'll be about 32-35K. I anticipate the ****ty economy to hurt next year's applicants, not so much this year's applicants.
 
I'm sorry but I can't find the article... I searched and searched... I even called them. I know it was there though! I saw it with my hubbie. We were both like "oh ****!"

Let's hope they are over-estimating!
 
if i had to take a guess, outside of the high and low estimates provided, it probably shouldn't change much from the last few years. First off, even if so many people were inspired to become MDs, how likely is it that many people managed to arrange pre reqs and mcats for med school in that period of time? the number of people taking the MCAT was basically the same (~25,000) then last year. And if people are using medicine as some kind of "avoid the job market" vehicle, then, well, thats just not very smart to go to med school with that as one of your main motivating factors. Law school is tough, but three years (while getting paid handsomely over the summer during internships) and you're done.
 
Never underestimate the power of cultural trends: notice, ER is no longer the #1 TV drama. Now it's CSI. Maybe everyone's going forensic investigator school . . . :wink:

That said, I think that most people's predictions about post 9/11 life were exaggerated. Remember all those talking heads on NPR claiming "the death of irony"? Sure, people hooked them selves up in relationships for like a month, and then they all broke up anyway. I really don't think this country has changed as much as people probably wished it would.
 
•••quote:•••Originally posted by relatively prime:
•I remember a few days ago the <a href="http://www.aamc.org" target="_blank">www.aamc.org</a> website said that the number of applicantions might get up to 47,000 this year. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" /> •••••They're probably saying that because they know we're reading these articles and they want us to be scared and apply to more schools because this means more money in their pockets. 🙂 hehe
 
I never liked ER anyways.......if I picked my profession based on my television watching habits, then I'd definitely be going to law school in NYC right now. Nothing like an endless stream of "Law and Order" on A&E to soothe the nerves after work.
 
•••quote:•••Originally posted by pocwana:
• •••quote:•••Originally posted by relatively prime:
•I remember a few days ago the <a href="http://www.aamc.org" target="_blank">www.aamc.org</a> website said that the number of applicantions might get up to 47,000 this year. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" /> •••••They're probably saying that because they know we're reading these articles and they want us to be scared and apply to more schools because this means more money in their pockets. 🙂 hehe•••••Yeah maybe... or they want us to remember that when their server crashes every 5 minutes. 🙂
 
•••quote:•••Originally posted by relatively prime:
•I remember a few days ago the <a href="http://www.aamc.org" target="_blank">www.aamc.org</a> website said that the number of applicantions might get up to 47,000 this year. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Eek!]" src="eek.gif" /> •••••Rule #1. Never believe anything that the AAMC says might happen.

Rule #2. Never forget Rule #1! :wink:
 
Here are the numbers from 1990 to 2000 (look at the last few rows). In 2001, there were ~34,000 applicants.
<a href="http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/famg12001.htm" target="_blank">http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/famg12001.htm</a>
 
Oh man! DW!! I SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO totally agree with you!!!!!

Law & Order (whether on A&E or NBC or whatever) is soo much better than ER. I never could get into the whole ER craze!
 
DW, I have a Q for you 🙂

Where did you find the info on how many people took the April MCAT? I have been searching for that forever!

Thanks
~Alison
 
•••quote:•••Originally posted by Anath:
•Oh man! DW!! I SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO totally agree with you!!!!!

Law & Order (whether on A&E or NBC or whatever) is soo much better than ER. I never could get into the whole ER craze!•••••Oh Law & Order is the best serious show ever! Hands down! (I say serious because The Simpsons is equally as good but not exactly the same type of show 🙂 )

I watched ER like once and thought it sucked. I just thought the characters and the whole theme lacked maturity and perspective.

Wow... these comments so don't belong here... so let me just add something relevant to make up for it...

If you think about it, the 9/11 event wouldn't affect this round of applicants. It would affect next years applicants. To be a serious medical school applicant you have to get started stuyding for the MCAT, getting clinical experience, etc... no later than you sophmore year of college. The people who were sophmores and juniors in college when 9/11 happened are the people that are applying this year. It would have been to late for anyone who wasn't already set on the medical school path to suddenly decide, "Hey I better apply to medical school!"

Do you get what I'm saying? Preparing yourself to apply to medical school takes at least 2 years (to be a strong applicant). So if there were a lot of students who suddenly decided that they wanted to go to medical school after 9/11, they won't be ready to apply until next year anyway... and if they do apply this year, chances are they won't be very prepared.

That's the reasoning that makes me feel better 🙂
 
despite the number decreasing since the early 90's, hasn't the competitiveness (mcat,gpa) been rising? i read that as those that apply are just higher in "quality" - whatever that means. i don't think much at all has changed after 9/11 fundamentally, except we now are getting a new inept-to-be dept. of government and the old hawks are having a field day. i do remember from applying to college, that in our year ('99) getting into colleges got harder - and its the same kids applying to medschool now (more or less). score. its snack time.
-jot
 
Some of you need to stop doing Crack and come back to reality. There is no way someone who post 9-11 suddenly decides "Dude, I want to solve the mysteries of the universe! I'll go into medicine!" and gets anything resembling 2 courses finished let alone getting the MCAT worked in, unless they are a freaking genius. People are simply not going into medicine because there are better occupations out there with less familial interference.

People who are changing or upgrading careers are more than likely moving into something where the payoff is quicker, since they have familes to support, and/or they can get into a field similar to their own and become more marketable, think Business Masters Degree. You'll learn these things as you get older.(sarcasm off)

Some schlump on Chicago's East Side isn't going to be applying this year, or even next. After the hysteria dies down and they see that they have to starve for 4 years then starve for 4 more to complete residency, they'll either go PA, (my bet), Nursing, PT, or Pysch M.A., et al.

Relax, your spot at Harvard is secure or your fabled top 20 where research is king, (nothing wrong with that), and clinical training takes second chair. The rest of us will survive being trained at XYZ Medical School and being good physicians.
 
The AMA and AAMC have both done studies on this. There is usually about a 3-4 year lag in increased admissions as a result of an economic slump.
 
•••quote:•••Originally posted by futrfysician:
•Some schlump on Chicago's East Side•••••Do you mean the schlumps living in Lake Michigan? <img border="0" alt="[Laughy]" title="" src="graemlins/laughy.gif" /> WHO needs to get off crack?? just kidding, but I laughed when I read what I think was your random example.

Sometimes it's interesting to think about the number of people out there seriously considering medicine. We're looking at SDN partially for that reason--and not just gunners wonder about this.
 
•••quote:•••Originally posted by DW:
I never liked ER anyways.......if I picked my profession based on my television watching habits, then I'd definitely be going to law school in NYC right now.••••CLASSIC!!! I guess if I did the same thing, I'd be paranoid psychologist with a bad radio show.

As for the discussion here, The number of AMCAS applicants was it's highest in 1996 at 46,968, so I doubt this year will reach 47,000. If you follow the trend in the applicant pool since 1996, it looks like there should be about 32,000 applicants. In an application packet I have from Berkeley Review, they predict 31,500 applicants, so my number seems close enough.

As for the 9/11 factor on medical school applications, I don't think any affect will be seen for a few years. You can't suddenly decide to apply to medical school from your 9-5 job in business. If some lawyer today decide to persue medicine, it would take them at least two years before they'd be ready to submit their application.

And based on that same logic, considering the computer industry took a dive about a year and half ago, and it takes about two years for someone to complete their pre-reqs to be ready for the MCAT, I'd guess that this year will be the low.

And if ER would start showing better episodes, or Scrubs would show its first good episode, then that number might even be higher. 🙂
 
Having a quality research program does not rule out quality clinical training. Nowhere is it written "thou shalt not provide quality research and clinical training". On the contrary, many of the schools that have the strongest research programs (Harvard, Hopkins) are also stellar schools for clinical training.
 
As everyone is saying, it will take about two years for the economy to influence med school applications. But for graduate programs that don't have requirements, applications already increased for this past year. Law schools have seen between 30 and 80 percent increases in apps from last year.
 
Everyone seems WAY TOO concerned about issues they can do nothing about. If you really want to become a physician-DO IT! Speculating about how many others are applying will do nothing for you.
 
Seriously, no matter how many applicants there are (27K or 30K), your ODDS might be better but those are just odds. Either they want you or not, regardless of what the odds are.

Just sit back, relax, and take it one step at a time. Good luck to you all...let's cross our fingers!

Btw, if my occupation depended on what I watched, I'd probably be working in Central Perk, be on Real World, or kickin it w/ Martha Stewart (yeah I know, I'm weird).
 
Just wanted to share some interesting info I got on the DL. Actually, I was invited to participate in a student panel at a national convention for prehealth advisors this week, and I got to sit in on sessions from AAMC/AMCAS officers, where they gave the audience precise numbers on applications so far this application cycle. Since so many were interested, here goes:

As of June 10th:
25,155 AMCAS applications have been initiated since May 6.
3,999 AMCAS applications have been submitted.
1,321 AMCAS applications have been verified.

Verified AMCAS applications will start being sent to schools electronically in early July, with paper copies sent to schools as well. Electronic versions will be sent to schools once a week, with the paper versions being sent everyday. This should be the last year that paper versions of the AMCAS online application will be sent to schools.

From 2001 to 2002, the number of applications went down approximately 4% to 31,850.

However, although they didn't give hard numbers, the AAMC reports that the number of students taking the April MCAT increased by 4% over last year's April MCAT numbers.

I have hordes more information, but I am still trying to type my notes out from the conference. When I do that, I will post it to the forum.

:wink:
 
thanks ellrose that info would be extremly interesting
 
ellerose, you are awesome.

Please do post that info! There are obviously some people who just want to apply and not worry about how many other applicants there are. But not me! I want all the facts, even if it means we get that 47,000. I want to know what I'm up against.

Thanks!

~Alison
 
what conference is this?
 
They started to accept applications on the 10-th. How could they have a 1000+ apps already verified by that date? If this information is true, it looks like this year is not going to be any different from the previous because some people did not even created their AMCAS and some who created it are not going to apply for some reason. I think it is going ~30k this year.
 
So I gotta ask, what does it look like for entering year 2005? Not that we can predict any mitigating circumstances within the next 4 years, but just in general. Just curious is all 😀
 
b-real, anyone who offers an answer to your question about 2005 is full of crap. There is no way to predict this 3 years from now. Prepare yourself for a competitive year, just to be on the safe side.
 
I have to agree with the idea that the number of applications have gone down, but the competitiveness hasn't decreased, and if anything, has increased.

Average GPA and MCAT scores have been on the rise, perhaps "non-competitive" applicants are saving their money from attempting to apply and are entering other fields that may absorb them, i.e. technical/biotech/graduate programs.

If anyone thinks it's easier to get into med school, based off decreasing number of applications is probably not seeing the big picture. Clinical exposure and numbers were important prior to the last decade, but the emphasis of laboratory research exposure has become more significant.

The population of the U.S. is increasing faster than the number of medical school seats, this ratio is not being maintained.
It's my belief that just getting into a good undergraduate university is getting cutthroat competitive. If that competitiveness doesn't translate into more competition to get into medical schools, then where would it channel to? Perhaps into modern industries like the computer sciences, yet i doubt that would suffice to absorb this overall trend towards a more competitive education system.
 
•••quote:••• I have to agree with the idea that the number of applications have gone down, but the competitiveness hasn't decreased, and if anything, has increased.

Average GPA and MCAT scores have been on the rise, perhaps "non-competitive" applicants are saving their money from attempting to apply and are entering other fields that may absorb them, i.e. technical/biotech/graduate programs.

If anyone thinks it's easier to get into med school, based off decreasing number of applications is probably not seeing the big picture. Clinical exposure and numbers were important prior to the last decade, but the emphasis of laboratory research exposure has become more significant.

The population of the U.S. is increasing faster than the number of medical school seats, this ratio is not being maintained.
It's my belief that just getting into a good undergraduate university is getting cutthroat competitive. If that competitiveness doesn't translate into more competition to get into medical schools, then where would it channel to? Perhaps into modern industries like the computer sciences, yet i doubt that would suffice to absorb this overall trend towards a more competitive education system. ••••amen
 
i agree, although i do think grade inflation has led to increased ave gpa's.
 
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