Oversaturated States for Dentists?

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prominence

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Besides California, what are some states that are generally oversaturated with dentists?

Any insight or helpful replies would be greatly appreciated. Thank you in advance.

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Rural Nebraska
 
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Attached is a map of all states with dentist over saturation (shaded in gray)
Blank_map_of_the_United_States.PNG
 
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I'd go by income to get a rough idea where demand and economy is healthy, and then there's more data in the link I provided below.

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Dentists, General

Apparently the highest annual mean wage is $258,250 in Port St. Lucie, Florida.
 
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i know for a fact that seattle area is oversaturated. Really hard to find a job in this area.
 
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I believe almost everywhere is saturated. We are graduating about 5800+ dentists (Correct me if I'm wrong) and about 2000 older dentists are retiring a year. Add up the fact that dentistry is still seen as an expendable commodity by a significant population of the public and we are headed towards something that might resemble the law or pharmacy market. One thing to note... In the US and the UK, dentistry still isn't completely oversaturated yet. But look at Brazil and India. Their dental field is completely gutted and is often seen as one of the least viable markets for new graduates. I have been applying to public health clinics in rural areas, but even these are seeing about 10-15 applicants for one spot. Because of turnover, yes corporate in a not so desirable area is probably the most likely to hire you. BUT, be careful. If you get fired (and I've seen many hardworking ethical dentists get fired), you may be stuck paying rent in an area far from home with no job opportunities besides that corp that just fired you.
 
The places I see with crazy oversaturation include anywhere on the Acela corridor from DC to Boston, South Florida, Chicago, NYC, Boston, most of California, and Seattle. Areas with awesome opportunities are Texas, anywhere 1hr+ away from a major city, Oklahoma, Iowa in rural counties, Nevada, and 1hr + away from Atlanta
 
I'd go by income to get a rough idea where demand and economy is healthy, and then there's more data in the link I provided below.



Dentists, General

Apparently the highest annual mean wage is $258,250 in Port St. Lucie, Florida.
Cost of living should be considered which is not reflected in this graph
 
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Cost of living should be considered which is not reflected in this graph

And taxes. An orthodontist in NYC is paying city and state income tax that amount to tens of thousands of dollars, on top of the higher cost of living. Add that up and the Texas specialist is killing it by comparison
 
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The places I see with crazy oversaturation include anywhere on the Acela corridor from DC to Boston, South Florida, Chicago, NYC, Boston, most of California, and Seattle. Areas with awesome opportunities are Texas, anywhere 1hr+ away from a major city, Oklahoma, Iowa in rural counties, Nevada, and 1hr + away from Atlanta
Are suburbs usually pretty safe? I notice some big cities may have saturation, but let's say we're an hour or so off the more saturated cities. Would it be a much better market?
 
Are suburbs usually pretty safe? I notice some big cities may have saturation, but let's say we're an hour or so off the more saturated cities. Would it be a much better market?
Better but not much better.
 
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Are suburbs usually pretty safe? I notice some big cities may have saturation, but let's say we're an hour or so off the more saturated cities. Would it be a much better market?

Suburbs are usually better than cities, but exurbs are usually better than suburbs, and rural is usually better than exurb. So rule of thumb be 2 hours from the nearest major airport and you'll probably have demographics in your favor, which will fix a lot of bad marketing or business decisions. Those same mistakes in the DC suburbs could really mess you up
 
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One time I was visiting Centreville, VA, a suburb of DC, and saw SEVEN dental offices in one strip mall plaza. SEVEN. Had I stood in the middle of the parking lot, I could've hit all seven with a baseball flatfooted. My arm isn't that good. Saturated af.

NOVA is very saturated but some still do well. Those government workers usually have good benefits and salaries to pay for dental care for their families.
 
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If you want to live there, it's probably over-saturated. Saying "pretty much everywhere" is over-saturated is a generalization, and one without basis.
Every state in the country will have towns of 5-10,000 with 1-2 dentists trying to serve the entire area. Many of these patients are uninsured, most of them do not choose their dentist based on how trendy their advertising is, or what their Yelp reviews are. These patients are not window-shopping for the cheapest bleaching trays, or referring to google to see how much BPA is released from composite restorations. They go to the dentist out of need. Isn't that what we referred to when we all told the adcoms that we wanted to help people? There are dentists in my state (that I know personally), practicing in Podunk Redneck Cajunville, bringing home $800k per year doing bread and butter dentistry.

If Medicaid puts you off, that's fine. One of the dentists I know sees medicaid peds patients on just Thursday afternoons, and pays his entire week's overhead from just that time. The rest of his week is FFS.

If you want to live in an awesome city like Austin or Seattle, that's great. But don't say there are no opportunities.
 
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If you want to live there, it's probably over-saturated. Saying "pretty much everywhere" is over-saturated is a generalization, and one without basis.
Every state in the country will have towns of 5-10,000 with 1-2 dentists trying to serve the entire area. Many of these patients are uninsured, most of them do not choose their dentist based on how trendy their advertising is, or what their Yelp reviews are. These patients are not window-shopping for the cheapest bleaching trays, or referring to google to see how much BPA is released from composite restorations. They go to the dentist out of need. Isn't that what we referred to when we all told the adcoms that we wanted to help people? There are dentists in my state (that I know personally), practicing in Podunk Redneck Cajunville, bringing home $800k per year doing bread and butter dentistry.

If Medicaid puts you off, that's fine. One of the dentists I know sees medicaid peds patients on just Thursday afternoons, and pays his entire week's overhead from just that time. The rest of his week is FFS.

If you want to live in an awesome city like Austin or Seattle, that's great. But don't say there are no opportunities.

Definitely agree on random rural spots. Check out this map from the Univ of Iowa showing population to dentist ratios, keep in mind 3000 to 1 is considered pretty good, and there are some places on this list where the ratio is 9000 to 1. oipo-map | College of Dentistry and Dental Clinics

In these small towns you don't need to deal with competition, so you dont have to worry about PPOs as much, can probably do a lot of FFS. The biggest stumbling block in my view with dental loans is when folks go to an expensive private school then want to live in one of the big cities in the northeast or california
 
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A better question is which FQHC's are hiring. There are some areas that require 10+ years experience + something special. There are some areas that require a license and a good attitude. The areas that require the latter are generally good places to work as you will be needed and not driven to produce just to keep a full time gig. Now if I could only find an area like that haha
 
Definitely agree on random rural spots. Check out this map from the Univ of Iowa showing population to dentist ratios, keep in mind 3000 to 1 is considered pretty good, and there are some places on this list where the ratio is 9000 to 1. oipo-map | College of Dentistry and Dental Clinics

In these small towns you don't need to deal with competition, so you dont have to worry about PPOs as much, can probably do a lot of FFS. The biggest stumbling block in my view with dental loans is when folks go to an expensive private school then want to live in one of the big cities in the northeast or california
Gee whiz! That map you linked is awesome! Good find. Now only if there was one for more states... I'm actually curious if this could be done on a national scale. Then dental students could actually see the saturation through an interactive tool.
 
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Major metropolitan cities (NYC, Boston, LA, Sf, etc) are pretty saturated, but lots of chain jobs available.

There are academic jobs everywhere but tend to be not great $$$
I don't think there are as many academic jobs as you think. A lot of the academic jobs are volunteer part time.
 
I don't think there are as many academic jobs as you think. A lot of the academic jobs are volunteer part time.
if you pick up AAOMS Today and look at the Classifieds you will see plenty of job postings for faculty positions in OS, many more through the AAOMS online Classifieds. There are always opportunities for adjunct positions however these are likely non or very low paying positions.
 
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if you pick up AAOMS Today and look at the Classifieds you will see plenty of job postings for faculty positions in OS, many more through the AAOMS online Classifieds. There are always opportunities for adjunct positions however these are likely non or very low paying positions.

OMS of course, but I thought this thread was referring to dentistry overall, general in particular.
 
Major metropolitan cities (NYC, Boston, LA, Sf, etc) are pretty saturated, but lots of chain jobs available.

There are academic jobs everywhere but tend to be not great $$$
are chain jobs good in the OS world? I know they're not good at all in general dental from what I've read on these parts, but if it's mostly wisdom teeth removal wouldn't the compensation still be pretty good and easy to get a lot of patients?
 
if you pick up AAOMS Today and look at the Classifieds you will see plenty of job postings for faculty positions in OS, many more through the AAOMS online Classifieds. There are always opportunities for adjunct positions however these are likely non or very low paying positions.

I was literally going to type this exact message

@Batmansvoice someone asked about OS specific so I answered ;)

@Medin2017 similar to chain dentistry, chain OMFS has downsides: high volume prioritized, generally move office to office = poor patient care (who manages your complications if someone post op day 4 has an infection when you're in the next county at a different office?)
Can earn decent cash but it's comes at the cost of quality of life to both provider and patient
 
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are chain jobs good in the OS world? I know they're not good at all in general dental from what I've read on these parts, but if it's mostly wisdom teeth removal wouldn't the compensation still be pretty good and easy to get a lot of patients?
I suggest you look at classifieds yourself. I was really surprised at the findings. Some positions are barely breaking 200k, something that a relatively high producing general dentist in a non-saturated city could do right after dental school. :/
 
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are chain jobs good in the OS world? I know they're not good at all in general dental from what I've read on these parts, but if it's mostly wisdom teeth removal wouldn't the compensation still be pretty good and easy to get a lot of patients?
I had a rep from Aspen Dental try to recruit me and tell me that if I worked for them as a traveling OS, I could make at least 800K. He was telling me about many Aspen OS who break a million working 4 days a week. However, they travel around to many Aspen practices. You're looking at 2hr commutes per one way on most days. So he says if you could stomach that much driving around and want to be free of practice owning, it's a good gig to have.
 
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are chain jobs good in the OS world? I know they're not good at all in general dental from what I've read on these parts, but if it's mostly wisdom teeth removal wouldn't the compensation still be pretty good and easy to get a lot of patients?

I was literally going to type this exact message

@Batmansvoice someone asked about OS specific so I answered ;)

@Medin2017 similar to chain dentistry, chain OMFS has downsides: high volume prioritized, generally move office to office = poor patient care (who manages your complications if someone post op day 4 has an infection when you're in the next county at a different office?)
Can earn decent cash but it's comes at the cost of quality of life to both provider and patient

This is something I don't really understand. Aren't OMFS positions limited by the number of open residency positions? Aren't there around 350 or some odd number graduating every year? It seems to me this would be one of the fields with the least amount of saturation problems no?
 
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I was literally going to type this exact message

@Batmansvoice someone asked about OS specific so I answered ;)

@Medin2017 similar to chain dentistry, chain OMFS has downsides: high volume prioritized, generally move office to office = poor patient care (who manages your complications if someone post op day 4 has an infection when you're in the next county at a different office?)
Can earn decent cash but it's comes at the cost of quality of life to both provider and patient
Hypothetically, what would happen to that patient with the infection? Would they just be ignored then?

I had a rep from Aspen Dental try to recruit me and tell me that if I worked for them as a traveling OS, I could make at least 800K. He was telling me about many Aspen OS who break a million working 4 days a week. However, they travel around to many Aspen practices. You're looking at 2hr commutes per one way on most days. So he says if you could stomach that much driving around and want to be free of practice owning, it's a good gig to have.
So if you're driving 4 hours a day, how would breaking 800 even be possible? The time spent at each practice would be minimized no? Or does this mean if it's 4 days 8-5 you're leaving your house by 6 am and leaving work at 5 so coming home at 7?
 
So if you're driving 4 hours a day, how would breaking 800 even be possible? The time spent at each practice would be minimized no? Or does this mean if it's 4 days 8-5 you're leaving your house by 6 am and leaving work at 5 so coming home at 7?
That's what it sounds like. Early days and late evenings. But he didn't say it was like that everyday. Just some days. I didn't press him on details bc I thought he was just bull****ing me.
 
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I had a rep from Aspen Dental try to recruit me and tell me that if I worked for them as a traveling OS, I could make at least 800K. He was telling me about many Aspen OS who break a million working 4 days a week. However, they travel around to many Aspen practices. You're looking at 2hr commutes per one way on most days. So he says if you could stomach that much driving around and want to be free of practice owning, it's a good gig to have.

I work corporate 2 days a week, 8 days a month . travel between 5 different locations, farthest of which is 100 miles from my house. Can make a huge chunk of change if you can tolerate the commute. All my patients have my cell, can contact me after hours for any reason. The other days of the week I work at a number of offices where those patients can be seen should there be a postop issue. You have to make yourself available 24/7 if you do the traveling corporate gig. I don't rely on any other docs in those practices to see my patients if there is a concern following surgery. No matter the place I work, I always treat each patient like they are coming to my own brick and mortar practice> they have access to me anytime of day/night. They stay happy, you stay (relatively) liability free and the lawyers stay far away.

M
 
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I work corporate 2 days a week, 8 days a month . travel between 5 different locations, farthest of which is 100 miles from my house. Can make a huge chunk of change if you can tolerate the commute. All my patients have my cell, can contact me after hours for any reason. The other days of the week I work at a number of offices where those patients can be seen should there be a postop issue. You have to make yourself available 24/7 if you do the traveling corporate gig. I don't rely on any other docs in those practices to see my patients if there is a concern following surgery. No matter the place I work, I always treat each patient like they are coming to my own brick and mortar practice> they have access to me anytime of day/night. They stay happy, you stay (relatively) liability free and the lawyers stay far away.

M
Would you say this is less stressful than just working being a partner/associate/owner at one place? This sounds so awesome
 
Would you say this is less stressful than just working being a partner/associate/owner at one place? This sounds so awesome
Partner v Associate v Owner have all their distinct stresses and advantages. If I had the opportunity to do as well working at one location, that would greatly simplify my work life, especially my commute. Between the corporate and private offices, over the course of a month I travel to a dozen locations. Patient mentality, insurances, ease of communication with other clinicians all differ. Some places are run like a well oiled machine, other places I have to do some additional leg work to get things done. No matter where or in what capacity you work, the main stressor is potential litigation. My malpractice premiums increase every year between 4-7 percent due to increasing number of claims in my region. This has driven me away from doing alot of hospital work (path, recons, heavy trauma) and sticking to office based stuff which I find more predictable. In terms of surgeries and anesthesia I have found algorithms that work for me , and keep me out of trouble. I practice the same everywhere, no matter where I work . Each office is a different beast however I stick to my own game plan. And that game plan is a far more conservative one than the scope of surgery I practiced early on as a neophyte OS.
 
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One would do better to look into another field ( such as medical mid-levels) instead of Dentistry. With all of the new dental schools (both opened and planned), the dental profession has a very poor employment outlook. Sure -- if you really can't work in an organization and absolutely love the isolation of private practice, then you may find some value in becoming a Dentist. In the near future, we will have dentists who cannot get practice loans due to the oversupply.
 
I think at some point banks won't give loans to students due to new grads defaulting on their loans and then there will be sharp decline in number of applicants for schools
 
I think at some point banks won't give loans to students due to new grads defaulting on their loans and then there will be sharp decline in number of applicants for schools
why would students default on their loans?

As long as IBR/PAYE exist, it will limit their payments to an affordable level. Rather or not the balance gets forgiven (full or partial) after ~20 years is a different matter.
 
Move to Williston, ND and you can make $200K as a fresh associate if you are somewhat productive.
 
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Looking at things at the state level is not very helpful. Inner suburbs of Houston or Dallas are likely saturated, despite the fact that everyone lauds Texas as a great market. If you've ever been to the state of Virginia, the rural southwest portion of the state and the high income suburbs of DC are two different countries. The answer to what makes a market a good market are far more complex than what state the practice would be in. Even in states as geographically small as Connecticut, there are big differences between places that are an hour in the car from each other.

The question you should probably be asking is which metropolitan areas are saturated, and the answer to that is likely a lot of the large ones. Too many people who become dentists come from high SES and these areas, and want to live the same way/in the same area as they did growing up, and they pay the price in terms of income:living expense ratio. On the other hand, it takes a lot to move from metro San Francisco to a mid sized city in Iowa if you're used to what you're used to, and no amount of income:living expense ratio can make up for the difference.

To each their own.

EDIT: I guess what I'm trying to say is that there are hidden gems that meet the sweet spots of:

-affordable housing with decent public schools
-a large enough affluent population that is also willing to pay money for dental services
-not a glut of other dentists within close enough proximity for patients to easily find appointments elsewhere
-high labor force participation rates (for obvious reasons), but while it is risky if the company relocates if you find a place where there is a dominant employer in and industry that pays well and offers good insurance for its employees it could be a gold mine


In a general sense, avoid the bigger, more expensive suburbs in big metro areas like LA, NY, San Francisco, DC, perhaps Chicago (plenty of great suburbs further out), Miami, Boston.

In my young and not yet fully educated view, I would stick to mid sized cities in the upper Midwest or Mountain West, along with places like Knoxville, TN, Asheville and Charlotte, NC, parts of Delaware that are suburban Philly, Burlington, VT. Places where there are patients with money willling to give it to you and not manyother places to give it.

Sure, you could be a one person show in a very rural town of 10,000, isolated from other towns, but this may not suit your lifestyle. It also might.

Oh, southern New Hampshire is fantastic. Affluent, good schools, not too much competition, no state income tax (high property to compensate), proximity to Boston.

If I had to list places where I would go given my personal preferences, I would rank them as

-Burlington, VT area
-suburban southern New Hampshire
-Asheville, NC area
-Castle Rock, CO area (exploding population in the Front Range Corridor)
-suburban Philly northern Delaware
-Anchorage

Of course there are other places too



Just wanted to say that it is exactly the same thing for Medicine ( all specialties), Pharmacy, Law, NP's, PA's, Podiatry, etc...None of us are immune.... gotta go to a smaller town
 
As someone who is from Castle Rock, CO originally and recently did a population analysis, I can tell you that it is quickly becoming over saturated with dentists. I'm a 4th year dental student and the dentists I spoke with in my hometown are all struggling with the competition. Yes, the population is exploding, but dentists are popping up like daisies there. Worst specialty there is Pedo -- I think there were like a dozen pediatric dentists or something absurd.
 
How responsive is the ADA to these concerns regarding saturation? Maybe the ADA can lobby for mandatory residencies, etc. in order to limit the amount of graduates per year.
 
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The ADA is probably similar to the AAO. Lots of old bureaucratic dentists who practiced at a better time with no real concept of where dentistry is today or how saturated dentistry is or is becoming. The AAO is reactive rather than being proactive.
 
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