For those who have answered: How much of your leaning toward Penn State is risk mitigation from the automatic ortho match?
I may be a bit presumptuous, (or have been getting a lot of bias information from ortho surgeons at Duke I have connections with who assure me they can help me do what I need to do to match into ortho) but I am decently confident I will be able to match into an ortho residency if I went to Duke, and potentially have some great choices.
Medical school is hard. Even the people who end up at Harvard do not all make high enough board scores to match Ortho if they want. You may be confident now, but when you're 8 lectures deep into cardio/pulm physiology of a 16 lecture test tomorrow and haven't started on the anatomy test that is a day later, you might not be so sure you can make it.
Penn State is still a big time, university affiliated medical school with a university affiliated ortho program. That is about as good as it gets, and as good as you need. Everything else that follows that in your career is largely on you.
There is no guarantee you’ll match ortho if you go to duke, even some of the top students in the country go unmatched every year. If you have a guaranteed opportunity to become an orthopaedic surgeon, you take it and don’t look back
Exactly what frogger said here. It is IMPERATIVE that you actually understand this.
Last thoughts;
Very rarely is anything guaranteed or 100% in medicine, and when those things happen, you take it. Every. Single. Time.
Second, to do medical school in 3 years of tuition AND to end residency 1 year sooner (4 yrs med school 5 yrs residency for 9 years education, and you will be done in 8) is going to save you a crap ton more money than you realize. I just did the math, and Duke will cost you about 100k less, but you'll be an attending 1 year sooner if you go to Penn St. with a salary at +450k, so you still are better off at Penn St. when you look at a cost analysis.
Duke is big, but your future and your goals are bigger. You have to decide if you really want to risk that by going to Duke.