Nope, best estimates is maybe a 5-8% savings. Medical Malpractice costs only total less than 2% of medical spending, and estimates of defensive medicine vary, but seem to be in the 5-6% range. Not saying it won't help, but not as helpful as you might think.
Considering that malpractice costs, including premiums, torts, and payments only account for less than 2% of all healthcare expenditures
http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=4968&type=0
and, in 2005, the HHS estimated defensive medicine costs at 60-108 billion. Not small change for sure, and could, and would definitely help.
http://www.managedcaremag.com/archives/0503/0503.regulation.html
However, in a 2.4 trillion dollar system, even at 108 billion, this only represents less than 5% of all healthcare expenditures. Would it help certainly. But considering the price tag of Obama's reform, which, according to the CBO is 1.5 trillion over the next ten years. 108 billion doesn't go very far.
It certainly would help though. Just won't create the kind of massive cost savings that many physicians think. Hoo and I have discussed this on any number of occasions. His summation is that, eliminating all malpractice costs would stabilize, or neutralize the increases in medical costs for ONE year. Then we would be right back to where we are now. And he's right.
NOW, even if you say, WAIT, how did the CBO account for all of this. Well, the CBO's accounting for the total relative cost of malpractice, including, awards, tort filings, premiums, etc. is quite accurate. The estimates by the HHS as pertains to defensive medicine is more difficult to figure. It is a much more elusive figure, but here is something more to ponder.
The Mass. Medical Society release a report in November of 2008 that suggests defensive medicine costs of 1.4 billion. Criticisms include the fact that figures counted are only from 8 specialties, and only represent 46% of practicing physicians in Mass.
http://massmed.typepad.com/each_pat...-medicine-costs-mass-at-least-14-billion.html
But, even if you DOUBLE that to 2.8 billion in costs, and then multiply by fifty states (crude, I know, but even figuring some states like California and Florida will have higher figures, they will be offset by smaller, lower populated states, like wyoming, montana, and the dakotas), you STILL only get 140 billion. Or approximately 5.8% of total healthcare expenditures.
So there you have malpractice reform, in a nutshell.